Posted on 01/08/2010 1:32:11 AM PST by militanttoby
I find this truly remarkable: in a National Journal survey of 109 Republican "party leaders, political professionals and pundits", not a single one deemed Sarah Palin to be the most likely Republican nominee.
I've written extensive commentary about how I think Palin's chances are in fact pretty decent. I'd probably call her the "favorite", although "favorite" in this context might mean having a 25-30 percent chance of winning. From my list of ten bullet points, this one stands out as the most important:
8. Attempts by the Republican Establishment to neuter her may backfire. This is a corollary of #6 ["She's tough to campaign against"] above. If the Establishment, owing to electability concerns or whatever else, tries to put hurdles in her way by re-structuring the primary or delegate allocation process, it may only play into the victimization complex of Palin and her supporters. 2010/12 is shaping up to be an anti-Establishment cycle. The Republican Establishment is not popular, to a large extent even within their own party, and certainly not among "conservatives" more broadly, only 55 percent of whom have a favorable image of the G.O.P.
Palin has some obvious flaws as a candidate. But she's the best equipped to bridge the divide between the Tea Party and the Republican Party. In some ways, indeed, the "message" that she unveiled in 2008: a mish-mash of populism, everywomanism, and paranoia -- coupled with a light touch on policy specifics -- has proven to be highly prescient in terms of everything that has come thereafter. And most of the other candidates have flaws that are at least as significant: Romney has his Mormonism, his flip-flops, and his MassCare; Huckabee has Maurice Clemmons and is despised by the establishment every bit as much as Palin, and Tim Pawlenty has become the dweeb trying to keep up with the Cool Kids -- we live in a branded world, and in a branded world, the inability to differentiate oneself is death. John Thune comes out looking pretty good, I guess, but he's also the least exposed so that could change.
But back to the point I made in November -- there's going to come a time, probably in July 2011 or so, where the knives are really drawn on Palin and Republican pundits, strategists and candidates start saying in public some of the things they've been thinking in private. And that in all likelihood will play very well for her. Although the Establishment's concerns about Palin's viability as a general election candidate are well grounded, mostly they're just terrified of her because she doesn't need them.
The RNC RINO’s picked someonw who would follow orders. Nothing more, nothing less.
Well you do raise an interesting point. Just how are these people appointed? I’ve never really heard much about the process.
Well, I'm in there with you. I hate to say it, but he's right-on if we don't see something more from the GOP than we've seen so far. Those in the party who were responsible for the McCain debacle are obviously banking on using the same tactics in coming election. Goodness know, NY-23 shows where their heads are right now.
The only hope I see is that someone can arouse the masses and build a big enough following that the GOP will HAVE to deal with them or lose for sure. Right now that person would appear to be Sarah Palin. She might not be, but until we have some evidence to the contrary I think she offers our best shot at forcing the GOP to represent us.
The other thing I see right now that might have a significant impact on bring the GOP around is how much money is being sent directly to conservative candidates, bypassing the GOP. That's the kind of message they will have to pay attention to these days.
Time will tell!
“Just how are these people appointed?”
Great question!
My guess is a few upper echelon GOP RINO’s choose him.
> I’d think the Republicans would be smart to offer Palin Steele’s job
The problem is, they wouldn’t let her do the job. They would snipe and complain, and use her as a scapegoat. Cowards.
Well since they are such a bunch of closet Rhinos they might just choose to continue to hide and let Palin do her job too! And if they did develop a spin and wanted to challenge her they better be ready for a real conservative fight and a dressing down!
That would be very smart for the republican establishment, but definitely not smart for her - provided she is contemplating running in 2012.
The RNC lead job is a behind-the-scenes position, despite Steele's compulsive need to aggrandize and advertise himself. While Governor Palin is quite capable of performing in a behind-the-scenes position, whe is currently having great effect leading from the front. The GOP desperately needs her to step back into the shadows, lest she reveal the GOP elite for what they truly are.
IMHO, for Sarah Palin to become RNC Chair would be a huge disservice to her, to conservative republicans, and (in the long run) to the country.
Well as I initially said, until the elections of the 2010 I think it would be a great move for her. The job is what the holder wants to make of it, and it would offer her an additional official capacity to launch her run for 2012 while providing “spiritiual leadership” to the party as a whole.
CARL ROVE should be installed as GOP leader and Steele should volunteer to step down for the good of the REAL GOP we all remember. CARL ROVE is the SMARTEST CONSERVATIVE in the world, bar-none. He can weave the mechanics of election to perfection and that powerfull office would impower him with all the MSM to do the job of filtering out the cancerous RINO tumors within our conservative party.
We must be around the same age, because I remember Eisenhower’s election also.
I also agree with you in the fact that alomost all politicians today, dems & reps are scared to death of her. That alone make her very interesting and viable as a candidate in my opinion.
It's a long time until the 2012 campaign gets down to real business. I need a way to kill time until then and having her to look at and at the same time ‘out’ RINO’s with exploding heads are just serendipity for me!
I readily admit she could easily go the way of Fred Thomspon or any of several other rising stars that turned out to be nothing more than a pyrotechnic device that exploded and then disappeared. But until that happens, Sarah Palin the man for me.
We disagree. If she were to take on the RNC Chair position, she would be affiliating herself with the Republican establishment - which is a diametric opposite of her image that is propelling her.
The RNC Chair is not a “spiritual leadership” position. It is a “begging for money” position.
Her taking the position helps only the RINO elite, and does nothing for conservative causes anywhere, IMO. If she buckles under and serves the party, she diminishes herself. If she stays rogue and serves conservatism, she gets blamed for the RINO elite’s failures. A lose-lose, to be certain.
The RINO cleanse must be led by a politically visible leader - not by the party’s fundraising designee.
She’s certainly more qualified than zerobama, that’s for sure !!!
I know a few Alaskans, and they were sorry to see her leave as Govenor, but are happy to see her gear up for 2012.
Palin-deflation ping!
All,
Notice the common theme, "I think she is happy with...no responsibilities".
How somebody knows this, I don't know. Perhaps they are projecting or perhaps they are not being objective.
“We disagree”
Well the odds of it being offered and accepted are probably pretty nile. Either way she can make a big mark on the party.
I cringe when I think of how kids are indoctrinated now compared to the relatively modest propagandizing I sat through in those years.
I miss the good ol’ days. When we had an entire school year class on how our system was superior to others. Seriously, the state law required every ninth grader to have a class exploring the various forms of government and showing how they were not as good as our system.
“I miss the good ol’ days. When we had an entire school year class on how our system was superior to others. Seriously, the state law required every ninth grader to have a class exploring the various forms of government and showing how they were not as good as our system.”
I remember that too! We studied that in 8th grade civics. I especially remember when studying Communism, photos of Soviet children who had been taken away from their parents, being instructed in government-run schools. We’re not too far away from that now.
That is a stupid remark.
Governor Palin has been involved in politics for 18 years, her life story is a story of taking on responsibilities, and it earned her the position of the most popular governor in America, a vice presidential slot in 2008 and her current position as leader of the conservative movement. Politics of 2009 are largely different in tone and passion and level of conservative confidence and anticipated success because of Sarah Palin, not because of the republican party of the week before Palin came on the national scene.
Governor Palin's history is one of running against odds, being a giant killer, and being a reformer, it is the opposite of how you tried to describe her, her personal drive has always been to take on responsibilities and to be a woman of action, that is why conservatives like her, she is a hands on politician that clearly fights for results.
In less than 18 months, Sarah Palin has dramatically changed the political landscape for conservatives in America.
Ahhh, yes the good ole days!!!
I miss them dearly.
When the Christmas break in school was called Christmas Break. When Easter break was called Easter Break. When the Pledge of Alegiance was a patriotic thing to do and nobody complained about it we were proud to be Americans. Burning a flag was unheard of, oral sex in the Whithouse with an intern and a married President would have meant immediate
Impeachment.
When our soldiers roughed up the enemy it was expected, not like now where our politicians are trying to condem Navy Seals for slapping around a terrorist.
When men were men.
God, I could go on and on about how screwed up our country has gotten.
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