Posted on 01/05/2010 9:09:06 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
As simmering unrest continues to sweep Iran, the country’s opposition is casting about for possible endgames to the ongoing crisis. Frustrated presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi proposed a five-point reconciliation plan last week but the government appears unyielding.
In the struggle currently gripping the streets of the Islamic Republic, an upcoming anniversary could prove significant.
Jan. 16 marks 31 years since the Shah of Iran fled his country, effectively handing victory to the revolution led by Ayatollah Roohollah Khomeini. Green movement activists are hoping the date could once again be the tipping point, this time for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
And as the anniversary approaches, Tehran isn't the only city to watch. Historical precedent suggests that revolutions can start in provincial cities not thought to be hotbeds rebellious activity.
On Dec. 15, 1989, a disturbance in a small Romanian team led to a massacre that became the long-awaited catalyst for the overthrow of the Ceausescu dynasty, the last Communist regime in Eastern Europe.
The protest in the town of Timisoara escalated into the shooting dead of nearly 100 demonstrators by Romanian government troops. Nicolai Ceausescu hurried back from a foreign trip - ironically enough to the Islamic Republic of Iran - just in time to be captured by revolutionary forces, put on trial and summarily executed. This may prove relevant to the current situation in Iran because it shows that a government can be toppled by demonstrations that start in provincial cities rather than the capital city.
“In that case also, most people were expecting things to mainly be driven by the capital city but heroes were discovered in the most unlikely places,” said a Tehran-based political analyst who requested anonymity for fear of a regime backlash for speaking to foreign media.(continued)
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
Yes... like Lexington and Concord...
I’d like to see the mullahs and ayatollahs get the Mogadishu treatment.
In turn, they use the gathered info, either in parts or entirety, to devise counter-strategies & propaganda, feeding it back through MSM or other media (often their own blogs). At times, to alleviate concerns of the opposition and/or appeal to masses (incl. non-Iranians) based on common points of agreement (denominators).
For example, it seems “Mohammad Reza Madhi” is using this tactic: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/investigation/30425/iranian-insider-predicts-regime-change. He may very well be sincere in his words, but I’d question his motives. Especially, the timing for his decision to go “public”.
Both “an Iranian Republic” and “separation of Religion & State” are popular Concepts among many Iranians. So, I’m not surprised Hardline or Reformist factions of IRI, NOW, wanting to capitalize on them.
For starters, I’d want to know EXACTLY what he (and other “reformist” faction of IRI), Now, means by “Keeping the Islamic Republic”, but separating Religion & State through structural changes? Specifics & details are required, before rejecting or supporting it.
Equally, what is meant by the opposition’s slogan of “independence, freedom and an Iranian Republic” ? Who will lead this?
Frustrated presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi proposed a five-point reconciliation plan last week but the government appears unyielding.
What is Moussavi’s 5 point “reconciliation” plan? Why does Moussavi, who is an integral part of IRI, but Ahmadinejad's nemesis, want to reconcile?
The other important consideration is that Mullahs, Iranian culture, is not welcoming of weakness. Perceived or otherwise.
A compromise, admitting to mistakes, or offering some latitude (esp. when one is in power) will be perceived as a sign of weakness. IRI - Khamenei especially, had the chance to compromise back in June - they refused.
Mohammad Reza Mahdi’s going public may well be an indirect approach on the part of IRI to gain acceptance without losing face.
Also, IRI reformists such as Moussavi, Khatami, Karroubi, post-election in June 2009, were not anticipating the riots to get of their control to the extent that they have been thus far. Their beef then was “where is my vote”.
Moreover, Rafsanjani (a diehard rival of Khamenei), has been the primary financier of the “Reformists revolt” (a good portion of “the Green Path of Hope”). Rafsanjani, along with the other so-called “good mullahs” want to be players, in general, and more so against Ahmadinejad’s hardline, conservative, military driven gang.
Good cop, bad cop - good mullah or bad mullah, unfortunately, ordinary people are caught in this whirlwind of duplicity, with no clear or strong alternative leadership (outside of IRI clown circle).
So, either give these IRI mullahs a different job, which satisfies their hunger for power, or get rid of IRI altogether. Unfortunately, the latter will need the help of the West and others.
As it stands, I would move very carefully on this & only provide support to a Secular Opposition when its leader, its objectives, and alternative government to Islamic Republic are spelled out in detail.
*ping*
We can only hope...
Thanks hp.
AS you know I have posted that something is going to hit the fan in the next few days and I thought I knew what it was.
Now I do but can only disclose this:
Expect a “virtual” Regime Change and Khamenei losing his position within two weeks.
Nationwide activity with some new power players.
New leaders will be announced - all currently inside Iran.
Supporters of the new administration are secularists but may include some clerics on an interim basis
Other details shared with me would be counter-productive if disclosed and in my view somewhat “let’s wait and see” how effective they may turn out to be.
As I said, many a slip between cup and the lip.
BTTT
BTTT
Thanks for the ping!
any guesses whether this speculative new secularist leadership would take a different, less agressive, stance on the nuclear issue and, for the time being, put off a confrontation with Israel/international community?
Thanks for the info. I’ll look forward to the end of that little lemur there..
If what I have been told is accurate, most probably. Nuclear sites would be taken over - if/when possible to remove them from the present regime management hands.
Again we have to wait and see how and where the chips fall in this planned effort. Somewhat unusual coalition appears to have formed.
What do we know about Mohammad Reza Madhi? Nothing.
Alas for the language and "journalists'" ability to use it. The quoted events cannot take place-- unless Ceausescu was sentenced to jail and then "summarily executed" for something else whilst en route to prison. No-- they were tried, sentenced to death, and executed within a short time.
Furthermore:
the overthrow of the Ceausescu dynasty
How much of a dynasty is a childless man of 71 expected to produce, even without the interposition of a firing squad?
Oops, sorry, They did have children. No mention (yet) of them being prepared to take over.
NOT SO! Just not being published in open forum.
Good advice.
Still, if and when it happens, I’d want more details - “secularism”, vagueness or motherhood statements leave much to be assumed, even if somethings can not be discussed or disclosed publicly. The latter begs the question why this “Mohammad Reza Mahdi” has taken it upon himself to publicly disclose as much as he has, and say there will be “regime change” of sorts. To me, even intuitively, the details of his interview per link in post #5 do not feel right.
Not to say your info is inaccurate, only that I remain to be skeptical at this stage.
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