In turn, they use the gathered info, either in parts or entirety, to devise counter-strategies & propaganda, feeding it back through MSM or other media (often their own blogs). At times, to alleviate concerns of the opposition and/or appeal to masses (incl. non-Iranians) based on common points of agreement (denominators).
For example, it seems “Mohammad Reza Madhi” is using this tactic: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/investigation/30425/iranian-insider-predicts-regime-change. He may very well be sincere in his words, but I’d question his motives. Especially, the timing for his decision to go “public”.
Both “an Iranian Republic” and “separation of Religion & State” are popular Concepts among many Iranians. So, I’m not surprised Hardline or Reformist factions of IRI, NOW, wanting to capitalize on them.
For starters, I’d want to know EXACTLY what he (and other “reformist” faction of IRI), Now, means by “Keeping the Islamic Republic”, but separating Religion & State through structural changes? Specifics & details are required, before rejecting or supporting it.
Equally, what is meant by the opposition’s slogan of “independence, freedom and an Iranian Republic” ? Who will lead this?
Frustrated presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi proposed a five-point reconciliation plan last week but the government appears unyielding.
What is Moussavi’s 5 point “reconciliation” plan? Why does Moussavi, who is an integral part of IRI, but Ahmadinejad's nemesis, want to reconcile?
The other important consideration is that Mullahs, Iranian culture, is not welcoming of weakness. Perceived or otherwise.
A compromise, admitting to mistakes, or offering some latitude (esp. when one is in power) will be perceived as a sign of weakness. IRI - Khamenei especially, had the chance to compromise back in June - they refused.
Mohammad Reza Mahdi’s going public may well be an indirect approach on the part of IRI to gain acceptance without losing face.
Also, IRI reformists such as Moussavi, Khatami, Karroubi, post-election in June 2009, were not anticipating the riots to get of their control to the extent that they have been thus far. Their beef then was “where is my vote”.
Moreover, Rafsanjani (a diehard rival of Khamenei), has been the primary financier of the “Reformists revolt” (a good portion of “the Green Path of Hope”). Rafsanjani, along with the other so-called “good mullahs” want to be players, in general, and more so against Ahmadinejad’s hardline, conservative, military driven gang.
Good cop, bad cop - good mullah or bad mullah, unfortunately, ordinary people are caught in this whirlwind of duplicity, with no clear or strong alternative leadership (outside of IRI clown circle).
So, either give these IRI mullahs a different job, which satisfies their hunger for power, or get rid of IRI altogether. Unfortunately, the latter will need the help of the West and others.
As it stands, I would move very carefully on this & only provide support to a Secular Opposition when its leader, its objectives, and alternative government to Islamic Republic are spelled out in detail.
AS you know I have posted that something is going to hit the fan in the next few days and I thought I knew what it was.
Now I do but can only disclose this:
Expect a “virtual” Regime Change and Khamenei losing his position within two weeks.
Nationwide activity with some new power players.
New leaders will be announced - all currently inside Iran.
Supporters of the new administration are secularists but may include some clerics on an interim basis
Other details shared with me would be counter-productive if disclosed and in my view somewhat “let’s wait and see” how effective they may turn out to be.
As I said, many a slip between cup and the lip.
What do we know about Mohammad Reza Madhi? Nothing.