Posted on 12/25/2009 7:49:49 AM PST by markomalley
LEGAZPI CITY – (UPDATE) Alert level 5 could be declared any time on Mayon Volcano but volcanologists are waiting for one important sign – a chocolate-colored mass of ash column shooting straight up into the air as high as 10-15 kilometers from the crater.
“Parameters are high until now and the intensifying activity might force us to raise the alert level to its highest level but it would happen only when Mayon shoots a straight ash column containing pyroclastic materials and molten, burning rocks as big as houses or buses from its crater, accompanied by intense rumbling and jittering of the ground felt as far as this city,” said resident volcanologist Eduardo Laguerta.
The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology has been verifying reports on the drying up of wells in the villages of Maninila, Mabalod, Masarawag in Guinobatan town, located along the western part of Mayon, and in Barangay (village) Buang, Tabaco City on the northeastern side.
He said a team of scientists would be fielded to verify the reports and find the cause as this was part of the physical observations similar to the uneasy behavior of animals confirmed in July when alert level 2 was raised.
Laguerta said an estimated 20 million cubic meters of ash and lava have reached the five-kilometer downslope while fine “irritating” ashes have reached as far as the town of Polangui but mainly affected the towns of Guinobatan and Camalig.
He clarified that in past eruptions Mayon deposited from at least 50 million cubic meters to as high as 150 million cubic meters of volcanic material depending on the intensity of the explosions.
Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum said that during the past 24-hours, seismic activity remained high with a total of 1,059 volcanic earthquakes detected, many of which were at maximum deflection, while harmonic tremors were still continuously being recorded.
The sulfur dioxide emission rate remained elevated and was measured at an average of 6,737 tons per day from Tuesday to early morning Wednesday.
During cloud breaks, a total of 66 ash explosions were observed and the maximum height attained was about one kilometer at 4:21 p.m. on Tuesday, the Phivolcs added.
Audible booming and rumbling sounds were still intermittently heard as red hot lava continued to flow down along the Bonga-Buyuan, Miisi, and Lidong gullies.
The lava front has reached about five kms downslope from the summit along the Bonga-Buyuan gully, said Phivolcs.
Phivolcs reiterated that the extended danger zone from the summit or eight kms on the southern sector of the volcano and seven kms on the northern sector should be free from human activity.
The Philippine Army and Philippine National Police Task Force Mayon have been conducting a census of the population who kept on coming back to their houses despite the very abnormal condition of the volcano.
As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, a total of 47,137 persons belonging to 9,880 families from 32 villages are currently in evacuation centers, said Chief Superintendent Leonardo Espina, Philippine National Police spokesman.
Affected towns and cities include Camalig, Daraga, Legazpi City, Tabaco City, Malilipot, Sto. Domingo, Ligao City and Guinobatan, all of Albay.
"Eruption [is] possible within days," Espina said.
He added that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was expected to visit the evacuees this afternoon.
For 42-year-old taxi operator Narciso Marama, Mayon's rumblings have been both a blessing and a curse. Mayon has for years attracted tourists to the province, but it has also caused misery for his family.
"They may have snowfall in other parts of the world, but here, we have ash fall," the father of four told Agence France-Presse. "It's a white Christmas for us too, but this is ash, and we have to wear face masks."
He said relatives from inside the no-go zone have joined tens of thousands in temporary shelters. His own family however remains just on the edge of the danger zone, and have not been moved.
"But if there is a huge eruption, we may also be forced to leave," he said. "I can still remember the devastation three years ago."
When Mayon last erupted in 2006 it oozed lava and vented steam and ash for two months. No one died directly from the eruption, but a powerful typhoon three months later dislodged tons of debris that had collected on its slopes, burying entire towns and killing over 1,000 people.
Marama's house was among those crushed in the mudslide, but no family members were killed.
"We lost everything we owned and had to rebuild from scratch," Marama said. "I still have nightmares from that incident. I am praying that no one is killed this time."
Provincial governor Joey Salceda said resources were fast being strained and declared the area "open season for aid."
"They [aid agencies] don't need to come to my office to deliver aid anymore, they can go direct to the center," he said.
Initial deliveries of food, blankets, medicines, water, face masks and toys and school supplies for the children have been distributed, and local policemen with Santa hats have been trying to cheer the crowd with carols.
Obviously, on a serious note, prayers go out to the folks in the danger zone.
But, more importantly, how much is the IPCC going to tax the Philippine government and is Algore jetting over (in his G-5, of course) to sell these folks the carbon offsets so they can pay for their greenhouse gas emissions?
Merry Christmas
/mark
PI Ping
it would be interesting to get the carbon emission numbers for this event, then evaluate the increased output against the old doomsday projections of the AGW gang.
wouldn’t it be interesting to find that, w/ mans contributions, the world was expected to implode in 5 years, but the output from this even would put us on a track having us implode in 5 minutes..............
I guess that means Level 5 follows the old phrase: "Put some jam in your pockets 'cuz you're about to be toast".
Bush’s fault....
Climate modeling has incorporated sulfate aerosols produced by human activity. Those particles reflect solar energy back into space, thus cooling the planet. The significant effect of the sulfate particles was confirmed by the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, which threw vast amounts of particles (an estimated 20 million tons, much more than the combined total of all the cars ever in existence have produced) into the upper atmosphere, leading to a measurable cooling of the earth for the next two years. Sulfate aerosols not only reflect energy directly away from the globe but act to condense water vapor into clouds, which also reflect incoming solar radiation away from the earth. The net effect is to reduce the amount of warming from manmade sources. Incorporating the effects of aerosols into the models has led to better predictions of past temperature changes; more important, it has reduced significantly the forecast temperatures and sea level rises resulting from climate changes. (Attribution: Thomas Moore, Climate of Fear, and Rush Limbaugh, EIB.)
when a big volcano shoots ash that high doesn’t it cause cooling for us down here?
/
ping
I think we should fine the Phillipines ... beaucoup bucks.
Demand Climate Justice!
Merry Christmas!
Philippine residents flee Mayon Volcano area amid eruption fears - 17 Jan 09
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X307L_yvBxo
OK, that’s it! Mankind can no longer remain inactive and just stand by when all these volcano eruptions threaten our very existence!
I call upon the UN to set up an international committee of eminent scientists that will provide clear guidance as to how vulcanism can be contained to pre-1990 levels - or it’s the end for all of us! No costs should be spared; our economies and standard of living are clearly insignificant compared to this new global threat.
Women, children, and developing nations hit hardest. And it’s clearly the fault of America and Western Europe, the wicked nations that have perpetrated and profited from global vulcanism for far too long. We need to establish a magma cap-and-trade scheme before it’s too late.
Volcanoes emit a variety of gasses, which have a variety of climatic effects.
A really big eruption tbat can get Sulfur Dioxide into the stratoshpere - aerosols that reflect sunlight - can cool the climate over most of the world for the next year or so - Pinatubo caused about 1 degree Fahrenheit of cooling.
This effect is more pronounced for volcanoes near the Equator rather than those near the poles.
Volcanoes also, of course, emit carbon dioxide. However, the total carbon dioxide emissions of all volcanoes worldwide in an average year is less than 1/100th of the carbon dioxide emissions of human activity (So people can abandon the tired old jokes about volcanoes having to buy carbon credits from Al Gore, etc. Their CO2 contribution is essentially irrelevant compared to human burning of fossil fuels.)
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/index.php
Mayon just doesn’t have huge eruptions so I doubt it would ever have any climate effect - the problem with it is that so many people live near it.
I anticipate reading a headline attributing “short term global cooling” to this eruption.
Take care Art Bell.
“Take care Art Bell.”
He is over 500 km from the volcano.
There are plenty of other FReepers throughout the Philippines.
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