Dubai doomsday -- Dubai real estate wipeout kicks off Stage 2 of the global depression

rickackerman. ^ | Dec 2009 | Guarino

[dennisw]

December 2, 2009

Nick note: You will find lots of pictures in this report. They show you the influence peddling, incredible waste and opulence created in Dubai. It is the world's greatest bubble economy – it was built with your money – and it has now wiped out. And it will continue to wipe out don't be fooled.

Dear Larry,

In my travels around the world, I've noticed something that seems to universally hold true. You may have noticed it too.

When their is row after row of construction cranes reaching into the sky, as far as the eye can see, you know its a bubble and is doomed. It must be some kind of pagan symbol, that angers the gods and brings on a great curse. Ultimately those places wipe out.

I saw it in New York in the 1960s. Houston in the 70s. Japan and Los Angeles in the 80s, and Russia in the 90s. More recently in most of the U.S., England, Ireland and Spain.

Now -- just when most people thought the economic crisis was over and we are in a “green shoots recovery” -- it's happening all over again. This time, on a scale never seen before.

Dubai, home of the world's most expensive real estate...tallest building...$1.5 billion Formula 1 race track...the would-be jewel and symbol of opulent wastefulness of the Middle East...is dead broke and not paying on its aw-sum debts. This time like other bubbles bursting it's taking the world financial system with it.

With virtually no accounting disclosure, Dubai was given endless derivatives loans to spend through it Sovereign Wealth Funds. It used the leverage from those derivatives to buy major assets the world over -- to create centers of decadence and waste around the globe. Incredible bubbles, with one central them... money losing.

Dubai World is one of Dubai government's investment arms. Through subsidiaries, it is engaged in five business segments: 1) transport and logistics, 2) dry-docks and maritime, 3) urban development, 4) investment and financial services, and 5) energy and natural resources. Click on the links I have included below if you would like more information on the subsidies. Its an amazing story.

Dubai Ports is the logistics and transport arm of Dubai World; it is the holding company for DP World and Economic Zones World.

EXCERPTED

[Borderline]

"......The claim was that the ability to put one over the other party in a business transaction is a universally accepted, expected, and even admired part of Chinese culture......"


As a business owner that contracts with chinese manufacturing I see a lot of 'cheating' over time. I buy a lot of cables, fans and computer components. What you initially see may not be what you get later. An example given me, that applies across a wide spectrum of products: is tennis shoes.

You spec out a tennis shoe with the president of a chinese manufacturing company. Your deal is for shoes of 'x' quality, made to your specifications, over a period of 2 years. Initial production and shipments not only meet your expectations but exceed them in promptness and QA.

Then comes the QA Slippage. Starts with the sole of the shoe, which is supposed to be spec'd out at 6 MM thick - is now 4.5 MM. You don't even notice because the shoe looks the same. Customers are not as happy with them though and sales drop a little. Then the laces, instead of being 80% polyester are now cheap garbage that looks the same but lasts your customer a couple weeks.

The president of the manufacturing industry you contracted with is down at the executive club merrily talking up his wonderful joke on you with his fellow business owners. He is PROUD of his screwing over of what we would consider basic business ethic, but which he is culturally rewarded for doing the opposite. He is more proud of the cheating he gets away with than he is worried about you not contracting with him next time. There seems to always be another sucker in the channel.

[penowa]

I haven't seen anything in any of the TB publications which I regularly receive, but I suspect Dubai's financial problems could be the final nail in the coffin of the thoroughbred business in KY which is already in serious decline (some stud fees for top stallions have been cut in half for '10 with few takers since the sale yearlings this year with the exception of the handful of top bloodlines are off over 40%.) The buyer or back-up bidder for the most expensive yearlings is Sheik Mohammed, the ruler of Dubai.

Even if his personal fortune is in no way effected by his country's financial crisis, I suspect he will pull back on buying the most expensive TBs here, in Europe, Australia and S.A. for the sake of how it will look to his subjects. He also owns millions of acres, the top horse farms in all the aforementioned places and supports a payroll of thousands of employees working worldwide caring for the horses.

[dennisw]

I buy a lot of cables, fans and computer components. What you initially see may not be what you get later. An example given me, that applies across a wide spectrum of products: is tennis shoes.

Is there such a thing as A quality and B quality versions of the same "made in China" computer component or accessory?
I've often thought that when I see a computer component sold with rebates or steep discount that a company is getting rid of a batch or run of B quality items

[Borderline]

"Is there such a thing as A quality and B quality versions of the same "made in China" computer component or accessory?


Not that I have ever seen formally stated that way. What happens is, over time, your product quality deteriorates and you have to look for a new builder. We are always looking for it. However, we also have some top notch suppliers: For instance, Lycom in Taiwan, builds a bunch of boards and cards for us and is always top of the heap and as good as anything made anywhere.

You would think that if we had issues with doing business in China that we would use domestic suppliers. Well , for what we can get here, we do get here! But there are no cable manufacturers making what we buy in the US. I would love to bring it home. In my opinion it is inevitable that it comes home or just disappears entirely as the 'global' economy is about to go up in smoke. However, the other side of that coin is: what US company is stupid enough to build onshore capability with Obama and the Dems running the insane asylum? Have to be fools to pay million dollar bribes to US officials when thousand dollar bribes gets the same thing offshore. And US unions are frankly the enemy of this country.

[dennisw]

Thanks much for the information

Let me put it this way
Apple enthusiasts like to brag about Apple’s better hardware

Can Apple be more demanding and get away with it? And go to Asus for example and say -— “We want you to make Quadro FX 1700 Graphics cards for us with a lower defect rate then what you supply others. We want better cards from a better run than what you give Dell or sell through NewEgg”

[hosepipe]

[ I’m a financial idiot and have no idea what to do with what little I have. I refuse to buy gold. ]

True..........

[Borderline]

"Can Apple be more demanding and get away with it?"


Apple, or any other OEM can make deals for a complete different version of anything. Made to their spec and designed and built to meet their demand. It just costs money. Apple, or Dell, or whoever will make back room deals with anyone on anything. They can even have their own logo and serial number on them. The price is much lower than retail, not just because they buy in huge quantity, but because Apple does the support on it. This holds true for hard drives, memory, graphics cards and anything else.

The biggest reason the hardware is traditionally longer lived is more that Apple controls every detail and supports every component directly. That is more important than it is that the hardware itself is better, although that is a part of it - Apple tries to do high end only. However, the biggest reason is because Apple controls it there are fewer variations to have to maintain support for and MUCH fewer low end platform and component manufacturers tossing junk into the marketplace. Since there is no $600 bottom end platform there isn't competition at that end - no bottom feeders at all.

Apple tries very hard to keep the quality up at the top end. That means a lot in the long run. That said, so does ASUS.

[EBH]

“An honest man is one who knows that he can’t consume more than he has produced,” original source: Part II, Section 2, pages 387-391 of the paperback Atlas Shrugged.

I tend to like this moral principle regarding money and capitalism. All the rest is looting and mooching. Equating greed to capitalism is a false argument. Greed is the motivation of looters.