It seems those many did not analyze things correctly. Many have never doubted that the bill will pass the House and many have never doubted that the democrats will get 60 votes to START the debate which is a very routine thing to do but yet the socialists struggled to get their 60 votes.
I think there’s a lot of ignorance about how these things proceed and about the nature of politics in general. You have to know some of the histories of some of these people. For example, Dorgan comes from a conservative state. His governor is very popular and his term is expiring. There’s talk about his running against Dorgan next year. As it is, Dorgan polls behind the governor of N.D. How do you think he’s going to vote once cloture comes up, knowing he’ll get clobbered in an election if he votes for the bill? He might commit political suicide—but it’s not likely. Bayh is another from a very conservative state. So is Lincoln and so is Pryor. So is Ben Nelson. There’s a lot going on behind the scenes—this is far from a done deal—or an easy one. Check intrade. Last I looked, probability of passage was down to 3.9%.
I admire your optimism, but I don’t share it. I truly hope in future, you will come back and give me a big “I TOLD YOU SO.”
I would welcome it, but sadly, I don’t expect it.