Lemme get this straight, if 350,000 people are losing their job every week it will cause the private economy to grow? Please elaborate.
There is a level of unemployment claims that we see even in a good economy.
During the past two decades, the four week moving average (4MA) of initial unemployment claims would bottom out around 300K during the best parts of the business cycle. So looking for a week where we see initial claims under 350K would be in alignment with the past data from the 4MA of initial claims to say “OK, now we’re possibly seeing some growth in hiring again...”
That’s not to say that a level of 300K to 350K initial claims means we’re seeing new hiring NOW, because we’re now seeing long-term structural changes in the US economy which invalidate quite a bit of economic assumptions from the last 20 to 60 years of economic data. But saying that 300K to 350K initial claims in any week means that we should start looking for employment growth IS consistent with the data we have.
Claiming a level of 450K initial claims is consistent with new job growth, however, is not supported by anything but unicorn farts and happy thoughts.
Lemme get this straight, if 350,000 people are losing their job every week it will cause the private economy to grow? Please elaborate.
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That’s the economics theorized break even spot on people losing and people finding work weekly. Above that - and we’ve been well above that for a long time - means the economy is shedding more jobs than it’s creating.