You're optimistic. You may be right, but my bet is that this will be a very slow recovery. I'm betting that we haven't hit bottom yet, not in real terms anyway.
I believe that the secular trend is Asia up, the west down. Schiff and Rogers have it right. Schiff likes to say; think of the world economy as a train. Most people think we're the engine. But we're the caboose.
Asia is going to rule this century. Couple of billion people there and they work hard, produce, and save like misers. We, on the other hand, go into debt and consume. We'll lose the battle unless we turn it around, and I don't see that happening anytime soon.
But while Schiff thinks the east will decouple quickly, my bet is that it will be a slow process. Things this big don't usually change overnight. They'll slowly pull away and leave us with our debt, our entitlement nightmares, our unproductive economy, but it will happen over time. The dollar IS the reserve currency, and there's nothing there to replace it yet. But if you're watching, you know that the Asians are moving away from the dollar as a long term store of value. They ain't stupid.
The dollar will have it's ups and downs, but over time - at least in relation to REAL money (gold) - thanks to the politicians, it will be down. Can't say what'll happen to the dollar in relation to other currencies, since that's all political too. I don't even try to play that game. Anybody who can... bully to you.
I don't even try to trade, I invest. As an investor, I'm completely out of the US market. We're looking to be pretty well hosed for awhile, although I'd love to be proven wrong. Meanwhile, I'm long PMs, Asia, and emerging markets. But unlike Schiff I'm sitting on a pile of dollars because I don't think the dollar is going to drop all that much all that soon. It may even strengthen over the short term. It's important to keep some of the powder dry and let this play out. So many political and unpredictable forces are at play.
Schiff and Rogers were recommending foreign stocks, foreign currencies and commodities last year. IIRC, that wasn't a very good call.
Asia is going to rule this century. Couple of billion people there and they work hard, produce, and save like misers.
The only problem is that whole Commie thing.
But while Schiff thinks the east will decouple quickly
He made (and lost) that bet last year.
Oh, those saintly Asians!
Now all they have to do is change their systems of Gov't and we can all move there where they never consume or spend!
What is PM?