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MY EXPERIENCE ONLY, having been in a very liberal university in the 60-70's, and in close association with such communities since then:

I believe that there may be as much as an additional 12-15% or completely committed socialists from that time, who have not grown up, and have resisted the "Dictum of Churchill": "A man who is not liberal at 20 has no heart. A man who is not a conservative by 40 has no brain." (You probably know this has been variously stated, as he made such comments many times... I've got no heart, by the way.)

In "college towns" there are many many 60's radicals who still are prominently running about amassing power and in the "protest" business. In Ithaca, NY, one of the COMMUNISTS won mayor on the Communist ticket. An undeclared communist is currently mayor (I know her personally). There are dozens of activists who support her, and there are thousands who are excited about such collectivist philosophies as Dear Leader's. If you are far from that type of crowd, it is hard to realize how strong that 60-70 movement still remains. It was weak enough that Hitlery was defeated (who was a "stronger" candidate) but they give total support to Dear Leader. Though they realize his methodology is weaker, the compensation is that his CommuFascist ideology is more solid.

(I'm going to repeat the numbers I erased from the note I wrote you earlier- wanted to get your reasons first without tainting your answer)

My guess would be that the base of "never get below Strong Approval" is about 9%black + 9-12%other. Though these SuperLibs from "IvyLeague" and I.L.wannabes are not that large a group, they have a disproportionate effect on the attitude of the public, their parents and others they come in contact with (at least that is what my experience traveling the country appears to be)

My guess at the base of "Strong Approval" would then be 20%, +/- 2%. I hope you're right, LS. I will not argue, that on most political commentary, that you have better instincts than I have.

No, I think our range is pretty close. I said 15% (12% black and 3% other) and you said 20%. I think the diff will boil down to exactly how radical O gets, plus some other things that are starting to percolate, such as the Afghanistan situation.

On the one hand, the Dems don't want to be saddled with losing a war. On the other hand, no Dem since Truman knew how to fight one. So how does the Joker sell it? He's already said we don't need a "victory" there. All this MAY . . . MAY . . . cut into his super approval with the uberlibs, the way the war cut into Bush's numbers with the isolationist right.

My guess at the base of "Strong Approval" would then be 20%, +/- 2%. I hope you're right, LS. I will not argue, that on most political commentary, that you have better instincts than I have.

I'm agreeing with you about the approval floor. My guess was closer to 25%. He might get below the floor if he gets to the point where the Marxists are mad at him for not being Marxist ENOUGH, much like Bush was in a situation where Dems were mad at him for being a Republican, and Republicans were mad at him for acting like a RINO.