Obama Points Debuts

The GOPNation.com ^ | August 17, 2009 | The GOPNation.com

[bmweezer]

In our first-in-a-series "Obama Points", we calculate that President Barack Obama has a 50.8 percent chance of being reelected in 2012.

Our analysis weights recent data, weighing polling by 40 percent, direction of country by 30 percent and consumer confidence by 30 percent.

For more information, please see how we calculate our numbers. The next update will be released on August 31, 2009.

In 2003, the GOPNation.com began a series called Bush Points which used current data to predict whether President George W. Bush would be reelected in 2004. In the end, our prediction of a Bush reelection was secure. In fact, our Bush Points final survey indicated with 50.7 percent certainty that the president would return for a second term, which closely matched the final popular vote outcome (Bush 50.73, John Kerry 48.27), although that wasn’t the specific intent of this analysis. But rather, our intent was, through of series of nearly eighteen-months of surveying, to conclude one way or another whether the president would be reelected.

Polling
(40 percent)				Average
Job Approval	July 17-19	May 29-31	May 7-10
USA Today/Gallup	55	61	58	58.0
(25 percent)
ABC/Washington Post	July 15-18	June 18-21	April 21-24
(25 percent)	59	65	69	64.3
Gallup	July 10-12	June 14-17
(25 percent)	58	58		58.0
Fox	August 11-12	July 21-22	June 9-10
(25 percent)	53	54	59	55.3
				58.9	23.6
Direction of Country
(30 percent)
Right Track
AP/Gfk	July 16-20	May 28-June 1	April 16-20
(25 percent)	40	48	48	45.3
Daily Kos	August 10-13	August 3-6	July 27039
(25 percent)	42	41	42	41.7
Diageo/Hotline	July 8-13	June 4-7	April 23-26
(25 percent)	31	45	42	39.3
Ipsos/McClatchy	July 30- Aug. 3	July 8-13	June 4-8
(25 percent)	46	40	52	46.0
				43.08333333	17.2
Consumer Confidence	Jul-09	Jun-09	May-09
(30 percent)
100=1985	46.6	49.3	54.8	50.2
50/100	23.3	24.65	27.4	25.1	10.0
Obama Points					50.84666667

[TurtleUp]

I hope their model is correct and they are including the probability that obama permits another round of presidential elections ... if there is some way to medel that question.

[RED SOUTH]

COMEDY TIME AT FREE REPUBLIC!

[wastoute]

Whether he gets re-elected depends on a number of other fators. Not the least of which is who he runs against. I suspect Palin wold beat him. I suspect a RINO will not.

If several states pass "b.c" requirements he may not appear on the ballot in some states. That could hurt.

Μολὼν λάβε

[wastoute]

No to even touch on the topic of "what if the Dems are able to turn 20 million illegals into voters by then."

Μολὼν λάβε

[Kickass Conservative]

Did they figure in the Stupidity Factor?

[ryan71]

“In our first-in-a-series “Obama Points”, we calculate that President Barack Obama has a 50.8 percent chance of being reelected in 2012. Our analysis weights recent data, weighing polling by 40 percent, direction of country by 30 percent and consumer confidence by 30 percent”

If the economy does not rebound come election time he has 0% chance of being reelected. Current “polls” mean nothing.

[green pastures]

Obama Points Debuts

I was reading the title awfully fast and at first glance thought it said “Obama Debates Totus.”

[ridesthemiles]

Did these statistics include the massive fraud put forth by ACORN in the voting booth?

Some estimates are as high as 18 million invalid voters that ACORN produced.