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Mixed Messages in Palin Numbers
Public Policy Polling ^ | July 8, 2009 | Tom Jensen

Posted on 07/08/2009 2:26:45 PM PDT by yongin

46% of Americans view Palin favorably, with 45% holding a negative opinion of her. In monthly surveys conducted between April and June her favorable rating was in the range of 42-43%.

The slight increase in popularity is fueled by the number of Republicans with a positive view of her increasing from 75 to 79%. She is static with independents and slightly down with Democrats.

When it comes to whether she's fit to be President though, 55% of voters in the country say no with just 37% in the affirmative. And asked specifically how her early resignation affects their inclination to some day support her for the White House, 57% of respondents say it makes them less likely to do so compared to 30% who say it makes them more likely to vote for her.

Here are some other key findings from the poll:

-Only 19% of moderates think Palin is fit to be President.

-She has a +8 net favorability rating with men but a -6 one with women.

-Despite her overall popularity with Republicans only 68% of them think she is cut out to be chief executive.

-Among voters with a favorable opinion of her 21% do not say she is fit to be President. Among voters with an unfavorable opinion of her only 1% say she is fit to be President. Both of these numbers present problems for Palin. The first one shows that even among a decent chunk of voters who like her they don't think she's suited to be leader of the free world. The second one shows that there's little hope of her earning the respect of her detractors. For instance many Democrats, while holding an unfavorable opinion of John McCain, would still say that he is fit to be President. But when it comes to Palin they don't like her or take her particularly seriously.

What does it mean? She's absolutely beloved by the party base and there's no doubt she can be a hit for years to come at fundraisers and GOTV rallies. And she may even be popular enough with Republicans to score the party's nomination in 2012 if she wants it. But national polls we conducted between March and June showed her trailing Barack Obama by an average of 16 points, worse than Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and even Newt Gingrich. And the numbers within this most recent poll would seem to further confirm that barring some major rehabilitation of her image, nominating her in 2012 would be a GOP death wish.

I doubt she'll run in 2012 but if she does my guess is that she only ends up getting nominated if Barack Obama's reelection seems inevitable and Republicans just want to vote for someone who makes them feel good, ala Barry Goldwater in 1964. If they think they have a real chance of winning they'll probably nominate someone who is perceived to be more electable.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Alaska
KEYWORDS: palin; sarah; sarahpalin; waronsarah
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To: yongin

Given the manufactured “outrage” by democrats, media, and many in the republican establishment about her resignation, the numbers here are just FANTASTICALLY good. She will recover, and then grow her support with some time, its pretty obvious.


41 posted on 07/08/2009 7:02:06 PM PDT by militanttoby
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To: militanttoby

“I doubt she’ll run in 2012 but if she does my guess is that she only ends up getting nominated if Barack Obama’s reelection seems inevitable and Republicans just want to vote for someone who makes them feel good, ala Barry Goldwater in 1964. If they think they have a real chance of winning they’ll probably nominate someone who is perceived to be more electable.”

The latest meme!! Yes, she is popular, more so than anyone else in Republican circles, but she can’t win the election. They need Mitt - he will be very very very hard to beat. /s

At least we have moved forward here, Palin is the likley GOP nominee :).


42 posted on 07/08/2009 7:06:25 PM PDT by militanttoby
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To: militanttoby

You just don’t get it yet. Mitt is a RINO, we are not voting for RINOs again, not now, not ever. Take it to the bank.


43 posted on 07/08/2009 7:08:29 PM PDT by alarm rider (My tagline is back from vacation. It had a great time.)
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To: yongin

Amazing. Despite the constant media hit jobs, Palin’s approvals are at half and half.


44 posted on 07/08/2009 10:07:23 PM PDT by DanZanRyu
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To: OldDeckHand
Contrary to what the Palinphiles think, she does need some professional coaching, she does need to improve her vocabulary and she needs to stop speaking in bumper sticker - essentially she needs to become a little more conventional.

For a newbie you are one prolific poster, especially your manipulative postings of "Governor" Palin. We do not need liberal posters to tell us how to be conservative, nor newbies to come on board pretending to have conservative bona fides.

You better check your posting history if you have a problem with this.
45 posted on 07/08/2009 11:00:28 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the occupation media.)
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To: PA Engineer
"For a newbie you are one prolific poster, especially your manipulative postings of "Governor" Palin. "

I'm awash with grief you're not a fan. And, I'm glad to know you're the keeper of the conservative bona fides. I'll sleep easier now. Have a great day.

46 posted on 07/08/2009 11:03:58 PM PDT by OldDeckHand (No Socialized Medicine, No Way, No How, No Time)
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To: OldDeckHand
I'm awash with grief you're not a fan. And, I'm glad to know you're the keeper of the conservative bona fides. I'll sleep easier now. Have a great day.

You should. Your busted.
47 posted on 07/08/2009 11:13:40 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the occupation media.)
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To: PA Engineer

Do you get tired of shoveling all that coal into the choo-choo’s engine, or are you more of a sanitary engineer?


48 posted on 07/08/2009 11:15:47 PM PDT by OldDeckHand (No Socialized Medicine, No Way, No How, No Time)
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To: OldDeckHand

Your name is not on the donor list. How about taking some of that Acorn money and make a donation.


49 posted on 07/08/2009 11:16:27 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the occupation media.)
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To: PA Engineer
"Your name is not on the donor list. How about taking some of that Acorn money and make a donation."

Sanitary engineer huh. Well, it's an important part of a civil society. And, I appreciate your contribution, no matter what other think.

And remember, you started this. I didn't.

50 posted on 07/08/2009 11:18:48 PM PDT by OldDeckHand (No Socialized Medicine, No Way, No How, No Time)
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To: OldDeckHand

You have been here less than two weeks yet you have amassed hundreds of posts. Do you ever sleep? Is this a full time job? Have you made your donation yet?


51 posted on 07/08/2009 11:25:25 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the occupation media.)
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To: PA Engineer
"Is this a full time job? Have you made your donation yet?"

I retired from the US Navy just over a month ago after 24 years of service. Taking a little break before I move to my next career. Yes, I'll donate. Any other questions.

And besides garbage collection, how much time have you spent serving your country, jerk?

52 posted on 07/08/2009 11:29:11 PM PDT by OldDeckHand (No Socialized Medicine, No Way, No How, No Time)
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To: OldDeckHand

Anyone can say anything about their background on the internet. I don’t think you ever served. You seem to have a great deal of problems with the people that keep our country running including “sanitation engineers”. This has all the trappings of a liberal. Your posting history is you ID and your ad hominem attacks your trademark. I’ll say it again. Put your money where your mouth is.


53 posted on 07/08/2009 11:35:45 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the occupation media.)
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To: yongin
Bottom line all this speculation is moot until she throws her hat into the ring for president.

Oddly the irony here for the Dems and the liberal press is they would like her to go away but they can't keep themselves from running stories on her. Which just keeps her in the spotlight. As the old adage goes “Love Me, Hate Me, but Don't Ignore Me!!” keeps her in the press positive or negative stories. Let them keep on hammering at her “The Underdog Backlash” will be to her benefit. They will end up making her more popular among the people and end up defeating themselves because they could not leave it along.

If she does come out and run then the people will start realizing that "Methinks the Left doth protest too much" and start taking a closer look at what she is really all about.

54 posted on 07/09/2009 12:04:19 AM PDT by Captain Beyond (The Hammer of the gods! (Just a cool line from a Led Zep song))
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To: yongin

It’s the cold hard truth. On the surface the numbers aren’t bad at all. Underneath there are some big problems.


55 posted on 07/09/2009 3:57:05 PM PDT by Norman Bates
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To: crunk

“I am not sure what it will take for her to improve her image with those people she needs to appeal to”

That’s the thing. I think she took care of that when she resigned. The only thing left is sheer force of personality.


56 posted on 07/09/2009 4:03:24 PM PDT by Norman Bates
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To: nhwingut

Sorry I don’t buy that. Republicans are pretty honest as a group. They may have supported so-and-so last time but they also acknowleged that B and C were qualified as well.


57 posted on 07/09/2009 4:13:16 PM PDT by Norman Bates
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