Posted on 06/14/2009 3:23:54 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
(To get a feel for what is going on in the streets of Tehran, watch this linked BBC video clip.)
Last night in London after appearing on Keith Olbermann's show, I got an email from a well-connected Iranian who knows many of the power figures in the Tehran political order asking to meet me. I told him that the only place possible was Paddington on the way to Heathrow -- and there we met.
He conveyed to me things that were mostly obvious -- Iran is now a tinderbox. The right is tenaciously consolidating its control over the state and refuses to yield. There is a split among the mullahs and significant dismay with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A gaping hole has been ripped open in Iranian society, exposing the contradictions of the regime and everyone now sees that the democracy that they believed that they had in Iranian form is a "charade."
But the scariest point he made to me that I had not heard anywhere else is that this "coup by the right wing" has created pressures that cannot be solved or patted down by the normal institutional arrangements Iran has constructed. The Guardian Council and other power nodes of government can't deal with the current crisis and can't deal with the fact that a civil war has now broken out among Iran's revolutionaries.
My contact predicted serious violence at the highest levels. He said that Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani. The level of tension between them has gone beyond civil limits -- and my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed.
Likewise, he said, Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Mousavi know this -- and thus are using all of the instruments at their control within Iran's government apparatus to fight back -- but given Khamenei's embrace of Ahmadinejad's actions in the election and victory, there is no recourse but to try and remove Khamenei. Some suggest that Rafsanjani will count votes to see if there is a way to formally dislodge Khamenei -- but this source I met said that all of these political giants have resources at their disposal to "do away with" those that get in the way.
He predicted that the so-called reformist camp -- who are not exactly humanists in the Western liberal sense -- may try and animate efforts to decapitate the regime and "do away with" Ahmadinejad and even the Supreme Leader himself.
I am not convinced that this source "knows" these things will definitely happen but am convinced of his credentials and impressed with the seriousness of the discussion we had and his own concern that there may be political killing sprees ahead.
This is not a vision he advocates -- but one he fears.
-- Steve Clemons
Correction not Sensitivity, but Diversity....
That's next week's seminar.
They are there, as well as Mossad.
Here is a link to the German government summoning their Iranian ambassador, I assume that means they are pulling them out of Iran, not sure though.
This is a real oppportunity than in past years we would have taken advantage of, as we did in Iran in the 50’s. We’ll probanly sent copies of the lyrics to Kumbaya now.
masiar:
RT @persiankiwi unconfirmed but I am hearing that many killed in tehran uni this evening. #Iranelection #iran
Twitter - 1 min ago
Iran is very poor, the government has to sustain a vast welfare state to keep the poor on their side, and the revenue just isn't there to keep things propped up for much longer.
The protesters seem to be from the educated class that actually keeps things running, and who are tired of holding up the welfare state.
OMG. BUMP. MUST READ.
The MSM is in a bad position relative to the Twitter/blogosphere crowd. Their continued existence in Iran is dependent upon their not annoying the regime by reporting things the regime would rather not get reported.
safavid: #IranElection after all Mousavi is a Khomeinist, former PM, and did not pose a danger to the system, so voter fraud does not make sense Twitter - 1 min ago
Very probably the best scenario we could hope for.
Other scenarios haved played, and fizzled out, time and time again.
I have no doubt that those born and raised under the shackles of Islam are full of rage.
The central question is: rage against what?
Each other. They are a tribal society. Plenty of hatred amongst them. Iranians are not Arabs and there is still plenty of hatred there. I’m a peaceful guy, but when I see enemies of the US ripe for ripping each other’s throats out, I say got for it.
No confirmation on this but it sounds like something the Mullahs would do.
There is not one country there that wishes us any good, and I include Kuwait.
When are the civilians going to start firing back?
By "right" & "right wing" does he mean folks who believe in individual liberties, and limited government, like America's "right?" That doesn't seem to fit - maybe he actually means "left" & "left wing:" statists who believe in government control, and rights based on race, religion, union membership, etc.
He predicted that the so-called reformist camp -- who are not exactly humanists in the Western liberal sense...
In the "Western liberal sense," 'reformists' are folks like Obama, who want to "reform" (i.e., increase the cost of, and limit access to) health care, "reform" (i.e., make more restrictive, with regard to individual freedoms) our so-called 'gun control' laws, and "reform" (i.e., eliminate the right to secret ballots) the voting process related to union representation.
Looks to me like the homicidal fascists currently controlling Iran are more akin to 'Western liberals' or 'progressives'...
the good old leftist lie that despots are “the right.”
“when I see enemies of the US ripe for ripping each other’s throats out, I say go for it.”
Absolutely. I’m always in favor of our enemies eating each other. Less for us to have to deal with later.
Iran officials called twitter and told them the block feature of twitter wasn't working. What is happening is they are using proxies and other tricks to go around the government censorship of twitter.
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