Arctic may be ice-free in 30 years: study

AFP on Yahoo ^ | 4/3/09 | AFP

[NormsRevenge]

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Some 80 percent of Arctic ice may disappear in 30 years, not 90 as scientists had previously estimated, according to a new study on the impact of global warming.

"The amount of the Arctic Ocean covered by ice at the end of summer by then could be only about 1 million square kilometers, or about 620,000 square miles," said US researchers who authored the study published Thursday.

"That's compared to today's ice extent of 4.6 million square kilometers, or 2.8 million square miles," they added, warning the development "raises the question of ecosystem upheaval."

The scientists made their projections based on models that took accounted for changes in Arctic ice, which saw "dramatic declines" at the end of summer in 2007 and 2008, when the ice surface dropped to 4.3 and 4.6 million square kilometers (1.7 and 1.8 million square miles), respectively.

The models pointed to a "nearly ice-free" Arctic in just 32 years, with some of the models making the same prediction for 11 years from now.

"In recent years, the combination of unusual warm temperatures from natural causes and the global warming signal have worked together to provide an earlier summer sea-ice loss than was predicted," said James Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

[NormsRevenge]

Bring on the models.

No Naomi Campbell, Please.

[boughtwithaprice]

Anyone wanna invest in Al Gore’s plan for an Arctic surfing club?

[CPT Clay]

anybody wanna bet?

[Le Chien Rouge]

Arctic may be ice-free in 30 years: study

Very True:

If the magnetic poles sudden shift to Brazil......

[CMAC51]

GIGO Model

Garbage In = Garbage Out

[EGPWS]

Some 80 percent of Arctic ice may disappear in 30 years, not 90 as scientists had previously estimated, according to a new study on the impact of global warming.

I'll believe it when "1-800-sandals" starts advertising a "Time of My Life" in the Arctic.

[avacado]

May, could, might... but actually not happening.

[svcw]

When these “experts” can get the weather correct 4 hours from now, I’ll belive them. Until then they can pound sand or ice.

[StACase]

Arctic may be ice-free in 30 years: study

And maybe not!

[GSWarrior]

Some 80 percent of Arctic ice may disappear in 30 year

Or not.

[ml/nj]

Is this guy taking bets?

ML/NJ

[usmcobra]

More crabs!!!!!!

[NaughtiusMaximus]

During the ‘70s this same bunch was claiming that by now we would all have frozen to death unless (and there’s always an unless) we all bought into their stooopid agenda.

Screw them. I’m going to go burn another pile of old tires.

[GSWarrior]

You beat me by 6 seconds.

[BlueStateBlues]

Then where will the polar bears sit waiting for the seals to surface? And will the North Pole be the North Pond?

[DTogo]

How soon until Washington DC is underwater?

(not soon enough!)

[Seaplaner]

The scientists made their projections based on models...

First mistake. IIRC, climate models are ridiculously uncertain.

Second, it appears as though the "scientists" adjusted the assumptions for the models based on a two-year observation.

This is a corruption, and of a dubious process in the first place.

By fiddling with assumptions, you can get a model with several (too many) variables to dance to any tune you wish.

(Hmmm, just in time for that Cap and Trade argument, how handy.)

.

[this_ol_patriot]

This was with the busted satellite data wasn't it?

[techcor]

Is everyone liberal forgetting (conservatives remember it) that it was suppose to be “ice free” last summer and the summer before that. And they even admit that it had more ice last summer than the summer before. Doesn't sound like the direction they were predicting. But now they've made their predictions for longer forecast so as not to embarrass themselves every year.

[Humble Servant]

I’m gonna get me a real estate shingle and start selling Antarctic Farmland to fools like this.