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Israel seriously considering military action against Iran
jpost.com/ ^ | Mar 5, 2009 | HILARY LEILA KRIEGER

Posted on 03/04/2009 7:14:25 PM PST by patriotmediaa

'Israel seriously considering military action against Iran'

WASHINGTON - Israel is seriously considering taking unilateral military action to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, according to a report by top US political figures and experts released Wednesday.

The report, "Preventing a Cascade of Instability," was put out by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP). It also argues that international sanctions against Iran need to be intensified urgently for the engagement the Obama administration is planning with Teheran to be effective.

An early draft of the report was endorsed by Dennis Ross before he withdrew upon joining the Obama administration, in which he is serving as a special representative dealing with various countries in the region, including Iran. Senator Evan Bayh of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, and Congressman Gary Ackerman, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on the Middle East, were among the signatories.

The bipartisan group also recommended increasing security guarantees and the supply of missile defenses and other protective measures to allies in the Middle East, both to reassure them of America's commitment to them and to dampen the perceived effectiveness, and hence appeal, of nuclear weapons for Iran.

But the report, several of whose authors met with high-level Israeli officials to assess their perspective, notes that Israel is not interested in becoming part of an American nuclear umbrella, even as Gulf countries want more assurances on that front.

"A declared US guarantee would clarify a situation of ambiguity that may already work to Israel's advantage," the report notes. Also, "many Israelis fear that a declared US guarantee could come at the price of circumscribing Israel's freedom of action in confronting existential dangers."

"It's quite serious in acting on its own about a nuclear-armed Iran," former US ambassador to the United Nations Nancy Soderberg, one of the task force members who traveled to the region to research the report, said at a WINEP event held Wednesday on the report's release.

She noted that the timetable for an Israeli attack might be "significantly" moved up if Jerusalem believed Russia was going to make good on its pledge to supply Iran with the S-300 surface-to-air missile system, which would greatly complicate any Israeli attack.

If the delivery does occur, the report recommends more arms sales to Israel, such as more modern aircraft, so it can maintain its military edge.

Later, she said that the aim of the report was to come up with strategies where neither the United States nor Israel was at the point of launching military action.

"You've kind of lost the ballgame at that point," she said.

To that end, the 10-page document urges more international sanctions and expanding financial pressure taken by the US Treasury, by creating similar programs at the US Commerce and State Departments.

The study stresses the importance of having a united global front and pushes for intensified diplomacy with Russia to both make sanctions more effective and to persuade the Russians not to deliver the S-300 system.

"Iran does not want to be isolated on the international stage: It is not North Korea. The broader the international consensus, the better. The repeated shows of unanimity by the UN Security Council seem to have impressed Iran more than the limited economic or security impact of the sanctions imposed thus far," the report states, in making the case for more sanctions.

At the same time, it contends that aggressive engagement is needed because "another important goal is to show the Middle East and the world that the United States will go the extra mile to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. Some circles in countries friendly to the United States now wonder - without reason - if Washington is as much an obstacle to resolving the nuclear impasse as is Teheran."

Even if engagement, sanctions and other measures prove ineffective, the report warns against sanctioning a "fallback" policy where Iran is allowed to have some, even if limited, capacity to enrich uranium in its territory.

"Iran's having a latent capability to quickly make nuclear weapons could lead to much the same risk of cascading instability as an Iran with an actual weapon," it reads, pointing to the risk for nuclear proliferation, Iranian regional hegemony and more.

The report makes no mention of the presidential elections in Iran this June, which could see the more moderate Muhammad Khatami replace fiery current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Some analysts have suggested that the Obama administration wait to either engage or press for further sanctions until after the campaign, so as not to increase the likelihood of Admadinejad winning.

But the task force calls for immediate action, arguing that the president is less important than Iran's supreme leader, Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, in making decisions and that the top priority should be creating leverage heading into negotiations.

An Iranian professor in the audience at Wednesday's WINEP conference, however, said that increasing pressure would increase extremism and Iranian hard-line leaders' sticking to the nuclear program.

WINEP executive director Robert Satloff, who presided over the conference, responded that the report's recommendations also included many incentives for Iran should it cooperate with the United States.

He also said Iran was already beginning to reap some of the rewards of influence just by having been successful in advancing its nuclear program, and that this report was intended to stanch that progress.

"Even without testing a nuclear weapon or declaring the ability to do so, Iran's progress toward nuclear weapons capability is already having a substantial impact on the Middle East," it says. "Time is


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: airstrikes; iran; iraniannukes; israel; nuclear; weapons
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To: umgud

Bibi in charge now. Maybe its a go.


21 posted on 03/04/2009 7:42:50 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (Atlas Shrugged Mode: ON)
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To: patriotmediaa

Uhm, hasn’t Israel been seriously thinking about this for almost a decade? When do we take them seriously?


22 posted on 03/04/2009 7:43:34 PM PST by 1010RD (First Do No Harm)
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To: patriotmediaa

It’s time for Israel to go do it. The rest of the World isn’t going to protect them.


23 posted on 03/04/2009 7:43:42 PM PST by popdonnelly (I don't live my life to gain the approval of liberals and leftists.)
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To: 1010RD

“When do we take them seriously?”
* * *

When the POTUS is a closet muzlim, gives $900M in aid to hamas, and he is degrading the US military through budget cuts.

Starting now.


24 posted on 03/04/2009 7:46:12 PM PST by Canedawg (Congress shall make no law abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press.)
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To: r9etb

>> It’s sure easy for you fellas to direct Israel’s military strategy, safe in the knoweledge that you won’t even be in the line of fire.

I would rather that the US had helped Israel handle the problem years ago. But we didn’t.

Like it or not, it’s up to Israel.

Iran already has US in their sights. What do you recommend? Appeasement?


25 posted on 03/04/2009 7:46:53 PM PST by Nervous Tick (Party? I don't have one anymore.)
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To: popdonnelly

what did GOD said


26 posted on 03/04/2009 7:48:18 PM PST by patriotmediaa
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To: Jet Jaguar

Israel sees him has a weak leader and they will have to make critical decisions without the help from the U.S. Zero will not want to touch this, it will not be popular with the looney toon left and the zombies that elected him.


27 posted on 03/04/2009 7:48:30 PM PST by NObama2008
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To: mountn man

Ping.


28 posted on 03/04/2009 7:49:33 PM PST by AmericanGirlRising (Buying carbon credits will not get me into Heaven. I am second - http://iamsecond.com/#/home/)
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To: Nervous Tick

I know this:

It is going to take a very hard lesson for the idiots in America to wake up.


29 posted on 03/04/2009 7:51:33 PM PST by unkus
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To: Nervous Tick

Hillary Clinton will give them anything Iran ask for


30 posted on 03/04/2009 7:52:15 PM PST by patriotmediaa
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To: unkus

>> It is going to take a very hard lesson for the idiots in America to wake up.

We will have our hard lesson, FRiend. One way or another.

I don’t know the precise flavor, but I know it will come.


31 posted on 03/04/2009 7:53:28 PM PST by Nervous Tick (Party? I don't have one anymore.)
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To: patriotmediaa

>> Hillary Clinton will give them anything Iran ask for

I hope you are wrong. But I fear you are right.


32 posted on 03/04/2009 7:54:56 PM PST by Nervous Tick (Party? I don't have one anymore.)
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To: Nervous Tick

its going to happen


33 posted on 03/04/2009 7:55:14 PM PST by patriotmediaa
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To: Nervous Tick
I was responding to the "let's you and him fight" tone of your posts. Very easy for you to suggest that Israel literally put its existence on the line. Much more difficult of the Israelis actually to make such a decision.

My take on the situation is that Obama's naivete and hubris (a deadly combination) is going to cause the US to stumble into a war with Iran. I also think that Obama's going to end up making things much more difficult than they need to be.

If it does come to war, I have to hope it happens sooner rather than later -- less time for our military to deteriorate.

34 posted on 03/04/2009 7:55:22 PM PST by r9etb
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To: r9etb

It’s sure easy for you fellas to direct Israel’s military strategy, safe in the knoweledge that you won’t even be in the line of fire.
_________________________________________

Unfortunately, it is going to take a terribly harsh lesson to wake up America.

And that lesson is going to put America in the center of the Bulls Eye.

All of America is going to be “in the line of fire”.

Denial isn’t going to solve a thing.


35 posted on 03/04/2009 7:55:38 PM PST by unkus
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To: patriotmediaa

Well?! We’re waiting!”

36 posted on 03/04/2009 7:56:42 PM PST by RichInOC (No! BAD Rich! (What'd I say?))
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To: Nervous Tick
This guy makes all the difference.



At this point,,, yes, it's a bunch of yadda yadda yadda... but, with Benjamin Netanyahu ( BIBI ) getting ready to be seated as Prime Minister of Israel... then, yes, I take this more seriously now.
37 posted on 03/04/2009 7:56:48 PM PST by Prophet in the wilderness (PSALM .53 : 1 The FOOL hath said in his heart, there is no GOD.)
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To: Nervous Tick

all Nations will go after Israel


38 posted on 03/04/2009 7:57:47 PM PST by patriotmediaa
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To: Prophet in the wilderness

GOD BLESS him


39 posted on 03/04/2009 7:58:21 PM PST by patriotmediaa
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To: NObama2008

Israel and the rest of the world see obama as a weak leader.

Obama will vote present again.


40 posted on 03/04/2009 7:58:34 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (Atlas Shrugged Mode: ON)
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