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Posted on 03/04/2009 7:14:25 PM PST by patriotmediaa
'Israel seriously considering military action against Iran'
WASHINGTON - Israel is seriously considering taking unilateral military action to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, according to a report by top US political figures and experts released Wednesday.
The report, "Preventing a Cascade of Instability," was put out by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP). It also argues that international sanctions against Iran need to be intensified urgently for the engagement the Obama administration is planning with Teheran to be effective.
An early draft of the report was endorsed by Dennis Ross before he withdrew upon joining the Obama administration, in which he is serving as a special representative dealing with various countries in the region, including Iran. Senator Evan Bayh of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, and Congressman Gary Ackerman, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on the Middle East, were among the signatories.
The bipartisan group also recommended increasing security guarantees and the supply of missile defenses and other protective measures to allies in the Middle East, both to reassure them of America's commitment to them and to dampen the perceived effectiveness, and hence appeal, of nuclear weapons for Iran.
But the report, several of whose authors met with high-level Israeli officials to assess their perspective, notes that Israel is not interested in becoming part of an American nuclear umbrella, even as Gulf countries want more assurances on that front.
"A declared US guarantee would clarify a situation of ambiguity that may already work to Israel's advantage," the report notes. Also, "many Israelis fear that a declared US guarantee could come at the price of circumscribing Israel's freedom of action in confronting existential dangers."
"It's quite serious in acting on its own about a nuclear-armed Iran," former US ambassador to the United Nations Nancy Soderberg, one of the task force members who traveled to the region to research the report, said at a WINEP event held Wednesday on the report's release.
She noted that the timetable for an Israeli attack might be "significantly" moved up if Jerusalem believed Russia was going to make good on its pledge to supply Iran with the S-300 surface-to-air missile system, which would greatly complicate any Israeli attack.
If the delivery does occur, the report recommends more arms sales to Israel, such as more modern aircraft, so it can maintain its military edge.
Later, she said that the aim of the report was to come up with strategies where neither the United States nor Israel was at the point of launching military action.
"You've kind of lost the ballgame at that point," she said.
To that end, the 10-page document urges more international sanctions and expanding financial pressure taken by the US Treasury, by creating similar programs at the US Commerce and State Departments.
The study stresses the importance of having a united global front and pushes for intensified diplomacy with Russia to both make sanctions more effective and to persuade the Russians not to deliver the S-300 system.
"Iran does not want to be isolated on the international stage: It is not North Korea. The broader the international consensus, the better. The repeated shows of unanimity by the UN Security Council seem to have impressed Iran more than the limited economic or security impact of the sanctions imposed thus far," the report states, in making the case for more sanctions.
At the same time, it contends that aggressive engagement is needed because "another important goal is to show the Middle East and the world that the United States will go the extra mile to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. Some circles in countries friendly to the United States now wonder - without reason - if Washington is as much an obstacle to resolving the nuclear impasse as is Teheran."
Even if engagement, sanctions and other measures prove ineffective, the report warns against sanctioning a "fallback" policy where Iran is allowed to have some, even if limited, capacity to enrich uranium in its territory.
"Iran's having a latent capability to quickly make nuclear weapons could lead to much the same risk of cascading instability as an Iran with an actual weapon," it reads, pointing to the risk for nuclear proliferation, Iranian regional hegemony and more.
The report makes no mention of the presidential elections in Iran this June, which could see the more moderate Muhammad Khatami replace fiery current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Some analysts have suggested that the Obama administration wait to either engage or press for further sanctions until after the campaign, so as not to increase the likelihood of Admadinejad winning.
But the task force calls for immediate action, arguing that the president is less important than Iran's supreme leader, Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, in making decisions and that the top priority should be creating leverage heading into negotiations.
An Iranian professor in the audience at Wednesday's WINEP conference, however, said that increasing pressure would increase extremism and Iranian hard-line leaders' sticking to the nuclear program.
WINEP executive director Robert Satloff, who presided over the conference, responded that the report's recommendations also included many incentives for Iran should it cooperate with the United States.
He also said Iran was already beginning to reap some of the rewards of influence just by having been successful in advancing its nuclear program, and that this report was intended to stanch that progress.
"Even without testing a nuclear weapon or declaring the ability to do so, Iran's progress toward nuclear weapons capability is already having a substantial impact on the Middle East," it says. "Time is
Missiles sold to China and Iran
WASHINGTON TIMES | April 6, 2005
By Bill Gertz
Members of Ukraine’s intelligence service and two Russians took part in an elaborate plan to sell 20 long-range cruise missiles to China and Iran, according to a Ukrainian government official.
Details of the transfer are outlined in a letter from Hrihory Omelchenko, deputy chairman of the Ukrainian parliamentary committee on organized crime and corruption, to the country’s new president, Viktor Yushchenko.
The Jan. 28 letter states that an investigation into the transfer of the Kh-55 air-launched cruise missiles is being thwarted by former officials of the government of former President Leonid Kuchma.
“These cruise missiles were hidden on military depots of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry under the control of [the Defense Ministry] and under documentation signed by senior officials of the ministry, saying they were in fact designated as destroyed,” stated the letter, which was first reported on by the Associated Press in February.
Mr. Yushchenko, who will address a joint session of the U.S. Congress today, promised to investigate the sales. Ukraine’s prosecutor-general last month said missiles were smuggled out of the country, which has led to indictments.
According to the letter, the Kh-55 missile deal began in 2000, when the two Russians connected to a foreign trade company known as Progress provided a false contract for the Russian state arms-export company Rosvoorouzhenie to buy 20 cruise missiles.
One of the Russians gave the false contract to the Ukrainian export company UkrSpetzExport .
Six missiles were sent by aircraft to China in April 2000 with the help of the two Russians and a reserve officer of the Ukrainian intelligence service who headed the Ukrazviazakaz company in Kiev.
The Russians were paid $600,000 to transport the missiles through several front companies, including firms in the United States, Cyprus and Hungary.
The Iranian side of the missile deal took place from May to June 2001, when six Kh-55 missiles were sent by aircraft to Iran.
Mr. Omelchenko did not say in the letter where the remaining eight missiles were sent.
The Iranians paid $49.5 million for the missiles and the shipment was disguised using forged documents that identified the shipments as oil-pipeline material.
Three persons involved in the missile deal died in automobile accidents, according to the letter.
One of the Russians involved in the deal, O.H. Orlov, is being detained in the Czech Republic and the second Russian, E.V. Shelenko, is being sought, the letter said.
Yadda yadda. Yadda yadda yadda.
How many times are we going to hear this?
Please, Israel. Stop considering, start bombing.
We've heard this for so long and so often that we believe it less each time it's repeated. Hopefully Iran has this same view.
The U.S certainly can’t conduct or afford another war. Israel should stop considering and act.
its time for Israel to go
It would appear that the time to “consider” military action is rapidly running out. And don’t expect support from the US. At best, Obamistan is nothing more than a passive observer.
one word,Netanyahu
In other words, idiots in denial continue looking for ways to help Iran win and murder millions of innocent people.
As for Russians missiles complicating any attack, that rather depends on the form the attack takes, doesn't it? Israel has intermediate range ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. If it wants to destroy Iran's nuclear capability, it can do so in 30 minutes in utter contempt for Iran or any of its allies or anything they can do.
Israel will tell the U.S kiss ass
That’s right. Let’s get it over with.
Israel hitting Iran might be the best thing to happen that will wake up America.
Iranian missiles can reach Israeli nuclear sites, Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic republic’s Revolutionary Guards, said Wednesday.
Ayatollah Khomeini: Obama is no different from Bush
“All the nuclear facilities in different parts of the land under the occupation of the Zionist regime are in the reach of Iran’s missile defenses,” Jafari was quoted by the ISNA news agency as saying.
Iran’s Shahab-3 missiles have a range of up to 1,250 miles, putting Israel within striking distance.
Jafari was quoted as saying that Iran is now a mighty military power to be reckoned with.
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki said Wednesday that its Russian-built Bushehr nuclear power plant would definitely become active in the summer of 2009.
Speaking in parliament in Teheran, Mottaki said it was the government’s duty to finish the project, which he said would be a significant political achievement, particularly considering the heavy international pressure imposed on the Islamic republic to curb its nuclear activities.
He said Russia had delivered the nuclear fuel as scheduled and nothing would further delay the implementation of the project, stressing that there were no problems between Teheran and Moscow.
“If there appears any change in Russia’s stance, Iran will take a very clear position in dealing with it,” he emphasized.
Also Wednesday, Iran’s supreme leader criticized what he called President Barack Obama’s “unconditional” support for Israel, saying he was following the same mistaken policies as the Bush administration.
Ayatollah Khomeini said Obama spoke of change during his campaign but supported the IDF operation in Gaza.
“The new US president, who came to office on the slogan of bringing change in the policies of the Bush administration, speaks of unconditional commitment to defend Israel’s security,” Khamenei said Wednesday, addressing a conference on supporting the Palestinians in Teheran.
“This means the same wrong path as the Bush administration and nothing less,” he said.
Khamenei also called Israel a “cancerous tumor” that is on the verge of collapse.
Obama has said his administration is looking for opportunities to engage Iran to help reduce tensions between the two countries that increased during Bush’s time in office.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said Iran would welcome talks with the US - but only if there was mutual respect. Iranian officials have said that means the US needs to stop accusing Iran of seeking to build nuclear weapons and supporting terrorism, charges Teheran has denied.
On Wednesday, Ahmadinejad urged the United States to change its “satanic” ways if it is serious about wanting change.
“Change means giving up your satanic, coercive and aggressive ways and instead adopting more human morals. ... If you accept this invitation, it will be to the benefit of yourself and your nation,” Ahmadinejad told a crowd in northwestern Iran. He did not mention Obama by name but was clearly referring to the new president’s administration.
The window for action is closing and 0bama’s overtures to the Russians to help with the Iranian nuke situation are hardly reassuring to Israel.
what do we give them ?
Look Japan is now not only voicing concern over the North Korean missile launch planned this month, its announced the intent to shoot it down.
Obama sends a secret letter to Russia selling out Poland and the Czech Republic that put themselves in front of the angry Bear to host defensive missiles.
Iran continues to laugh at Obama and goes merrily on its nuke dance.
US allies have to take note that they are alone. Obama is feared by NO ONE.
The bad actors on the global stage see nothing from him to give them pause.
And as such, they won’t be giving any.
That new Russian missile system is the threshold for Israel.
I can feel it in my bones.
And Israel knows its alone. What would they need a nuclear umbrella for as they have their own capability.
>> Israel hitting Iran might be the best thing to happen that will wake up America.
Aside from the direct benefit of taking out Iranian weapons... it’ll surely force Bambi’s hand, won’t it?
The boy isn’t up to handling even one crisis. He’ll cave when he has to deal with this.
At this point, I hope you’re right. I get the feeling that Israel is in top form when they have no allies at all.
It’s sure easy for you fellas to direct Israel’s military strategy, safe in the knoweledge that you won’t even be in the line of fire.
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