I think there will be another cloture vote after the conference, then a vote on the bill, if cloture is defeated.
So, if two of the three RINOs vote no on cloture, cloture would fail with only 59 votes, then Reid will also vote no so he can bring it up again at another time. Then, Reid and Obama will work the three over again, only harder, before Reid brings it up again.
The losing side in a failed cloture vote may, but need not have one member switch sides in order to make a motion to reconsider. I've always found the motion to reconsider a failed cloture vote to be moronic. There is no rule that says cloture can be called for only once on a given point. The Republicans made 8 cloture motions (6 failed votes, the 7th and 8th motions were withdrawn) to limit debate on a Motion to Proceed to the Consideration of a bill authorizing funds for the investigation of the Whitewater Development Corporation.
See Examples of cloture on "motion to proceed" (links to Congressional Record). If a cloture motion fails, just file another one. All Reid is doing with his "motion to reconsider" is protecting a sophomoric "number of times the other party made a cloture motion" sort of statistic. I see no purpose even for that.