The aggregate moving averages in 2000 and 2004 were very accurate.
The exit polls were indeed skewed on election day. It seems Dems are most likely to yak to exit pollsters who tend to be college kids and activists who poll folks who look accessible to them.
The aggregate moving averages on this year’s 18 polls was also very accurate.
I knew we were in trouble when Mccain’s thin lead after RNC-Palin nomination collapsed a month before the election even though many here viciously eschewed such open speculating.
“...even though many here viciously eschewed such open speculating.”
I hear ya. I had everything from my motivations to my parentage impugned because I posted that if Rasmussen said Obama was going to win, Obama was going to win.
Your point about Ras vs. TIPP is right on. Ras’ final prediction is his final poll result, no sauce applied, unlike almost all the others, who make a final prediction that may be several points off their final poll.
You are correct that the aggregate averages of the polls were highly accurate in the last several elections. But, in four years, if the pollsters don’t have the Pubbie winning, the same Freepers will come out of the woodwork asserting that ALL the polls are ALWAYS wrong and skewed toward the Dems, even when confronted with hard evidence to the contrary. Such vicious, widespread, galloping mendacity is why I’m mostly a lurker these days.
What a coincidence, on the timing, huh?