Posted on 12/15/2008 6:56:51 PM PST by Kaslin
Election: Now that the '08 tally is official, we note that for the second election in a row, the IBD/TIPP Poll not only came closest to the final margin, but was right on the money — tantamount to hitting a bullet with a bullet.
It can take as long as a month and a half for states to arrive at their final tallies. California, for example, didn't finish its tabulation until Saturday. The spread can change quite a bit over that period. For every million votes counted, the gap was expanding by one-tenth of a percentage point.
The popular vote margin the morning after the election was 6.0 — putting the Rasmussen organization closest at that point. But it widened steadily in the last six weeks.
The table below shows how the other polling organizations did. Tracking polls, such as IBD/TIPP's, poll every day and typically average results over a three-day period. Nontracking polls survey less frequently.
In all, more than 18 national polls followed this year's presidential race, the most ever.
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
Or longer still if the state involved is Minnesota, home of the "Found Ballot!"
I remember watching the IBD poll with some hopefulness until the last week. McCain has a miserable uphill battle coming on the heels of eight years of a GOP presidency, and then the "financial crisis" (which I put in quotes because the crisis was largely made by federal government mismanagement).
I think people were just exhausted.
boy talk about crow to pass around here served cold....lol
7 plus points....even I wouldn’t have believed that
Gallup was ridiculous this year.
It does show much this country changed in the past 30 years. The question is how much further change will Obama, Pelosi, and Reid bring to America?
poll ping final results
If i recall, none of the pre-election polls were putting him over 50%, or if one did, it was barely over.
It looked to me like it was about 49-45 heading into 11/4, but the predictions of Bradley Effect didnt materialize, and the reality of many Rs staying home did.
I guess that we need to believe their polls after all.
I was one who swore that the democrat buffoon wouldnt beat the buffoon I voted for
The issue is which polls to believe, not whether any polls at all are to be believed. Some of them were way off. Others had bogus numbers (like Pew, that had Obama up by SIXTEEN POINTS), only to “correct” them a day or two before the election.
I think Rasmussen did the best. Their final number was a poll number, not a projection. They also were the closet at hitting each candidate’s actual vote percentage, while TIPP was closer on the spread.
“The difference — 7.2 percentage points — is exactly what IBD/TIPP predicted just hours before polls opened Nov. 4.”
A stopped clock in right 2 times a day ;-) I don’t know why this is a big deal. They had McCain down 3.7 points 2 weeks earlier. If they were really good, they’d nail the final margin months earlier and stick with it.
many many here said the polls were all lies and anyone who thought otherwise was a traitor and defeatist coward troll etc
it went on and on...day in day out
they know who they were..
i never thought we were ahead except after Palin nod but I never thought we were down 7.....maybe 3-4...hence winnable if we had a big turnout which we did not have
folks lied on and on about how 2000 and 2004 were just like this when in fact they were not and shazaam...they too were fairly accurate
turns out the MAs were very accurate
what killed me though was how the same folks who said polls were lies would then take a pro-McCain poll as solid gospel
lol
many of the 2004 polls were off and we clearly meant to drive opinion. Even the exit polls the day of had Kerry winning. This year polls were all over again, and I think there was some hope that they were wrong. I was hopeful it was close until I saw this TIPP poll shoot in the wrong direction the last 5 days. I had optimistically hoped that their small margin and the large # of undecideds gave us a chance. The last weekend they went from 2-3 points to 5 or more and I realized we were in trouble.
The aggregate moving averages in 2000 and 2004 were very accurate.
The exit polls were indeed skewed on election day. It seems Dems are most likely to yak to exit pollsters who tend to be college kids and activists who poll folks who look accessible to them.
The aggregate moving averages on this year’s 18 polls was also very accurate.
I knew we were in trouble when Mccain’s thin lead after RNC-Palin nomination collapsed a month before the election even though many here viciously eschewed such open speculating.
Investors Business Daily is a great publication...(I don’t work for them, just like their politics and stock analysis)
I agree. I will certainly remember to keep a closer eye on Rasmussen and TIPP in 2012. That is, if we still have elections in 2012....but I digress.
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