Really?
Amazing << Hear this. Feel this, and tell me that this isn't music.
Posted on 11/16/2008 8:38:35 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Small changes can have dramatic consequences. The electorate shifted about 4 points toward the Democrats in between the 2004 and 2008 elections--from 48.3 percent of the popular vote four years ago to 52.5 percent today. But those 4 points gave Obama the largest share of the vote since 1988, the best showing by a Democrat since 1964, the first black president, the first non-southern Democratic president since John F. Kennedy, and likely larger Democratic majorities in Congress than when President Clinton took office in 1993. In a closely divided America, a swing of four votes in a hundred can mean a decisive victory.
Obama's achievement can be explained with a few numbers. The first is 27 percent--President Bush's approval rating in the national exit poll. Pretty dismal. The poll found that voters were split on whether John McCain would continue Bush's policies. But those who thought McCain would be another Bush broke overwhelmingly for Obama, 91 percent to 8. That's a huge, damning margin.
The second number is 93 percent. That's the percentage of voters who gave the economy a negative rating in the exit poll. They supported Obama. And they were right to give the economy a negative rating. The financial crisis is spilling over into the real economy of goods and services. Unemployment is rising and consumption is falling. The week before the election, the Commerce Department announced that consumer spending had dropped 3.1 percent. Consumer spending hadn't fallen since 1991, and this year's decline was the largest since 1980.
The day before the election, the auto companies announced that they had had their worst month in a quarter-century. When economic conditions are as bad as this, of course the party out of power is favored to win an election.
Considering those numbers, the 2008 electoral map isn't all that surprising. Bush, the economy, and Obama's personal and political appeal have pushed the nation toward the blue end of the political spectrum. But, for the most part, the shift is gradual and on the margins. Obama will be president because he took states that Bush won in tight races four years ago. Bush won Ohio by 2 points in 2004. This year Obama won it by 4. Bush won Florida by 5 points in 2004. This year Obama won it by 2.5 points.
Obama's victories in the West were impressive. Bush won Colorado by 5 points in 2004. Obama won it by 7. Bush won New Mexico by 1 point in 2004. Obama won it by a substantial margin--about 15 points. Bush won Nevada by 2 points in 2004. Obama won it by about 13 points.
Virginia has been trending blue since 2001, when Mark Warner was elected governor. In 2004, John Kerry won the Washington suburbs of Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax, but still lost the state to Bush, 45 to 54 percent. The next year, another Democrat, Tim Kaine, succeeded Warner. And the year after that, voters replaced incumbent Republican senator George Allen with Democrat Jim Webb in a contest decided by just a few thousand votes. In 2008 Virginia went totally blue. It handed the Democrats as many as three more House seats, replaced retiring Republican senator John Warner with Mark Warner (no relation) by a vote of two-to-one, and swung for Obama by a margin of 5.5 points. Virginia's electoral votes went for a Democrat for the first time since 1964.
The two major surprises on our new map are North Carolina and Indiana. Bush won North Carolina by 12 points in 2004. This year Obama erased that margin and won by a couple tenths of a point. It's the first time since 1976 that North Carolina has voted for a Democratic president. In Indiana the swing toward Obama was even more pronounced. Bush won there by a huge margin of 22 points in 2004. Obama made up all of that ground, eking out a victory of about a point. No Democrat had won Indiana since 1964.
If I were Obama strategist David Axelrod, I'd--well, I'd probably be exhausted right now. But I'd also make sure that President-elect Obama spends the next four years visiting North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. He needs to deepen his support in all five states. And I'd also make sure Obama visits Missouri, where at this writing it appears he barely lost; Montana, where he lost by 2.5 points; and Georgia, where he lost by 5.5 points. If Obama holds all the states he won this year and adds those three to his column in 2012, he'll be reelected in a landslide. That's a big "if," of course. The key is a successful first term.
Where does this leave the Republicans? In deep trouble. The GOP is increasingly confined to Appalachia, the South, and the Great Plains. When the next Congress convenes in 2009, there won't be a single House Republican from New England. The GOP is doing only a little better in the mid-Atlantic. There will be only three Republican congressmen in New York's 29-member delegation in the next Congress. Only a third of Pennsylvania's delegation will be Republican--about the same proportion as in New Jersey. There will be a single Republican in Maryland's eight-man delegation. The Rust Belt is hostile territory, too. So are the Mountain West and the Pacific Coast. The GOP is like the central character in Bob Dylan's "Like a Rolling Stone." It's on its own, no direction home.
The Republicans are in demographic trouble. When you look at the ethnic composition of Obama's coalition, you see that it's kind of a mini-America. About two-thirds of Obama's supporters are white and a third minorities. The Republican coalition, by contrast, is white, male, and old. There's the first problem. Overall, Obama may have lost the white vote (while still doing better than Kerry did), but in 2008 whites (not counting Hispanics, per Census convention) made up the smallest proportion of the electorate since the start of exit polling. Obama scored tremendous victories among minorities. He won more than 90 percent of the black vote. He won the Hispanic vote by a two-to-one margin. He won the Asian vote by a similar margin.
Then there are the young. Voters under 30 turned out in only slightly higher numbers than they did in 2004, but they overwhelmingly backed Obama, 68 percent to 30. A successful Obama presidency could lock these voters into the Democratic column for a long, long time.
The most striking divide in 2008 is between rural voters and metropolitan voters. Rural voters back the Republican party overwhelmingly. The problem is that there aren't many of them--and there are fewer all the time. It's the metropolitan voters, the voters who live in cities or suburbs or exurbs, who are growing. And these voters are trending Democratic. Obama won the Philadelphia suburbs, the Washington, D.C., suburbs, the Chicago suburbs in Illinois and Indiana, the Denver suburbs, the suburban counties that make up the Research Triangle in North Carolina, and many more. He won the Orlando suburbs by 20 points. Disney World is Obama country.
Suburbs and exurbs are the most dynamic, fastest-growing places in the country. They are future-oriented. Republicans win when they build out from their rural base and gain support in the exurbs and suburbs. That's how Bush won in 2004. But in Bush's second term, things went awry. The suburban voters abandoned the GOP for the Democrats. The exurbs became volatile battlegrounds. And the GOP was left a minority party.
I think of places like Loudoun County, a northern Virginia exurb. Bush won Loudoun County by 12 points in 2004. In 2008, Obama won Loudoun by 6 points. For the GOP to have a future, it has to reverse that 18-point swing. Otherwise, Republicans better start praying for rain.
That is what I don’t understand. The evidence of failed socialism and communism is right there in front of us. But we are too busy with American Idol, iTunes, x-Box, the Superbowl - the bread and circuses of our day - to see.
Even if they aren’t happy we will have nothing but mock ‘elections’!! That is their legacy in handing this election to these thugs. They have murdered the United States of America and ‘Democrats’(the irony of the name!) are going to be steering us straight on to third world status and a good whipping at the hands of the Soviet-ChiCom-terrorist alliance! The world will certainly feel the effects of this as well.
Don’t forget the right to vote given to murderers, child molesters, thieves and every other criminal available to add to the Demonrat machine! You hit the nail on the head why this election is so fatal. These people are the enemy of this country and have control now and God help us!
Your analysis is great! I especially love “ the GOP should craft tax policy to give the ultra-rich exactly what they want: higher taxes. The GOP should go after the ultra-wealthy with a fury, because these people are also funding the DNC”
I came to a similar conclusion. How about all entertainers including professional sports stars? I would like to add ex presidents and congressman but no way would they go for that.
My favorite FNC show is Cavuto, and he has been preaching that the combination of low interest rates and huge deficit spending the past ~7 years makes the idea that these massive borrowing stimulus bailout bills are not going to help and may make things worse, But politically no one wants to be accused of doing nothing.
I think we need to start calling the non-partison Ross Perot alarm on the deficit, ala 1992. And no circling the wagons around GWB legacy. He has led our party off a cliff. Eventually we drop the non-partison stuff and ask why democrats are following GWB when they promised the opposite. Remember 1992 debate a woman asked Bush SR how the deficit was affecting him personally? Lets setoff deficit mania again(and not a moment too soon!). Its our best bet to headoff BoB’s plans to put 60% of voters on welfare.
Probably not-they are about to throw millions of Mid Westerners out of work-yes I mean the planned filibuster of the Auto industry bailout. Who is left to vote for the GOP for president? No votes in California or the entire North East, Western states are trending Democratic and the GOP is about to destroy any chance they had in the Mid West.
Things are not nearly as bad yet...The market crashed in 29. It took a couple of years for the depression to begin.
I think it is because they think there is some perfect balance and we just have to achieve it. You know, a third way...It's misguided but it's what i believe, those that actually do think, think.
We’ve seen these articles and books making the case for both sides for a long time.
“Census data for 2006 show a population of 8,856,505 with blacks comprising 1,892,469 of the population and Hispanics of all races amounting to 597,382. Basically, of the 2.2 million increase in population from 1990 to 2006, about 1 million came from blacks and Hispanics, which now make up about 28% of the population. “
Holy smokes that is a huge difference.
“Minorities and immigrants vote overwhelmingly Dem. Demography is destiny.” This was true in the past 30 years, but it didnt stop the Reagan elections or the elections of the GOP. In fact, we are electorally in a very similar situation that we were in in 1992.
Someone did a study and it showed that Bush in 1988 got the same ratio from different ethnic groups as McCain v Obama. The difference was the large increases in the hispanic and immigrant populations that shifted the ratios of voter from a 54% to 46% win for the GOP to a 7 point win for the Democrats.
“Buy 2023, half of all children 18 and under will be minorities and by 2042, half of the country will be minorities.”
- This is a reality we have to deal with.
What can I say, my wife is an immigrant and my kids are nonwhite.
“Minorities and immigrants vote overwhelmingly Dem. Demography is destiny.” - This can be changed and challenged, but it will take hard work. The GOP is the party of equal opportunity, and we will need to go to the minority groups and urban areas and fight for the GOP values and agenda.
Where will the jobs come from in the future? We don’t make things (TV’s appliances soon no cars) anymore. Tech CEO’s want H1B visa people to take tech jobs (no American is qualified you understand). Call centers have moved overseas. Wachovia has moved its clerical operation overseas...where will the jobs come from. Do you really believe we can remain a great country while we serve hamburgers to one another? The GOP lost their way when they stopped caring about job creation. I don’t know how they can fix this.
Around here the Republicans and the Democrats together add up to a majority. But registered Independents are very common. There might be a majority, barely, of Democrats in office, but they don’t have the majority of registered members of the Party and probably never will.
What the GOP doesn’t understand is that ‘socialism’ is not a bad word for the unemployed. If the GOP had fair trade and had not bled jobs from this country, they would not have lost the election. You can say anything. People without jobs won’t listen. The GOP will be blamed for this recession/depression.
This is not unfair. I think both parties share the blame, but the party that holds the presidency sets the monetary policy. My Grandpa was a big FDR fan. He told me once that ‘everyone knew that FDR cared about the people’. He believed without FDR, millions of Americans would have starved. There was a connection-a trust if you will of FDR. The GOP has lost the trust of the American people. It will be hard to combat this in the short term. Perhaps in the the coming years Repubs can win back the trust of the people.
UAW workers are primarily Democrat voters anywhere.
If the GOP votes to support the bailout, I think there will be a lot more pissed off conservatives all over the country, than there will be placated union workers.
After he puts the economy firmly in the tank let’s see how he does in Loudoun.
“To put in another way=”These ain’t your daddies type DemonCRAPS. They are In like flint, and they are not going anywhere soon. It’s a whole new ballgame. “
Sad but true. They will ruin the economy but will not take the blame. The ignorant voters that support them will continue to vote for screwing business and for a few handouts.
It will take serious educating of the people to turn it back.
“The demographic changes (which started to show in this election) are devastating for the Republican Party in the future.”
IF we insist on ceding the minority vote.
IF NOT, WE CAN COMPETE.
“What the GOP doesn’t understand is that ‘socialism’ is not a bad word for the unemployed.”
More importantly, the Dems DO understand that making more people dependent on Govt will “HOOK” them
” If the GOP had fair trade and had not bled jobs from this country, they would not have lost the election.”
Disagree. We created jobs and had unemployment at the remarkable low level of under 5% in 2006 ... and we still lost the Congress. Since then, the Dems have mucked things enough to weaken the economy. That weakening had nothing to do with ‘bled jobs’, when in fact trade has created the best high-paying jobs in the economy. It did have something to do with Democrat threats to raise taxes.
“My Grandpa was a big FDR fan. He told me once that ‘everyone knew that FDR cared about the people’. He believed without FDR, millions of Americans would have starved.”
Your Grandpa was sold a bill of goods.
FDR lengthened the great depression and his policies failed to cure unemployment and haremd the ability of the country to grow:
http://www.parapundit.com/archives/005635.html
It was ironically the Great Depression precisely
The scary thing is that FDR’s PR was better than his economic policies and the Republicans were not able to offer a credible alternative. The fact that your Grandpa and millions like him revered a man whose policies made them poorer is a testament to the dangers of patronage socialist economics.
The GOP will need to be ready with pro-growth policies.
Really?
Amazing << Hear this. Feel this, and tell me that this isn't music.
Unfinished thought above: It was ironically the Great Depression precisely because FDR made it so with his bad economic policies.
If FDR hadnt been so bad, it would have just been the Hoover Depression, and we would have been back on track by 1933 instead of waiting until WWII to improve.
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