Posted on 11/16/2008 8:38:35 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Small changes can have dramatic consequences. The electorate shifted about 4 points toward the Democrats in between the 2004 and 2008 elections--from 48.3 percent of the popular vote four years ago to 52.5 percent today. But those 4 points gave Obama the largest share of the vote since 1988, the best showing by a Democrat since 1964, the first black president, the first non-southern Democratic president since John F. Kennedy, and likely larger Democratic majorities in Congress than when President Clinton took office in 1993. In a closely divided America, a swing of four votes in a hundred can mean a decisive victory.
Obama's achievement can be explained with a few numbers. The first is 27 percent--President Bush's approval rating in the national exit poll. Pretty dismal. The poll found that voters were split on whether John McCain would continue Bush's policies. But those who thought McCain would be another Bush broke overwhelmingly for Obama, 91 percent to 8. That's a huge, damning margin.
The second number is 93 percent. That's the percentage of voters who gave the economy a negative rating in the exit poll. They supported Obama. And they were right to give the economy a negative rating. The financial crisis is spilling over into the real economy of goods and services. Unemployment is rising and consumption is falling. The week before the election, the Commerce Department announced that consumer spending had dropped 3.1 percent. Consumer spending hadn't fallen since 1991, and this year's decline was the largest since 1980.
The day before the election, the auto companies announced that they had had their worst month in a quarter-century. When economic conditions are as bad as this, of course the party out of power is favored to win an election.
Considering those numbers, the 2008 electoral map isn't all that surprising. Bush, the economy, and Obama's personal and political appeal have pushed the nation toward the blue end of the political spectrum. But, for the most part, the shift is gradual and on the margins. Obama will be president because he took states that Bush won in tight races four years ago. Bush won Ohio by 2 points in 2004. This year Obama won it by 4. Bush won Florida by 5 points in 2004. This year Obama won it by 2.5 points.
Obama's victories in the West were impressive. Bush won Colorado by 5 points in 2004. Obama won it by 7. Bush won New Mexico by 1 point in 2004. Obama won it by a substantial margin--about 15 points. Bush won Nevada by 2 points in 2004. Obama won it by about 13 points.
Virginia has been trending blue since 2001, when Mark Warner was elected governor. In 2004, John Kerry won the Washington suburbs of Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax, but still lost the state to Bush, 45 to 54 percent. The next year, another Democrat, Tim Kaine, succeeded Warner. And the year after that, voters replaced incumbent Republican senator George Allen with Democrat Jim Webb in a contest decided by just a few thousand votes. In 2008 Virginia went totally blue. It handed the Democrats as many as three more House seats, replaced retiring Republican senator John Warner with Mark Warner (no relation) by a vote of two-to-one, and swung for Obama by a margin of 5.5 points. Virginia's electoral votes went for a Democrat for the first time since 1964.
The two major surprises on our new map are North Carolina and Indiana. Bush won North Carolina by 12 points in 2004. This year Obama erased that margin and won by a couple tenths of a point. It's the first time since 1976 that North Carolina has voted for a Democratic president. In Indiana the swing toward Obama was even more pronounced. Bush won there by a huge margin of 22 points in 2004. Obama made up all of that ground, eking out a victory of about a point. No Democrat had won Indiana since 1964.
If I were Obama strategist David Axelrod, I'd--well, I'd probably be exhausted right now. But I'd also make sure that President-elect Obama spends the next four years visiting North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida. He needs to deepen his support in all five states. And I'd also make sure Obama visits Missouri, where at this writing it appears he barely lost; Montana, where he lost by 2.5 points; and Georgia, where he lost by 5.5 points. If Obama holds all the states he won this year and adds those three to his column in 2012, he'll be reelected in a landslide. That's a big "if," of course. The key is a successful first term.
Where does this leave the Republicans? In deep trouble. The GOP is increasingly confined to Appalachia, the South, and the Great Plains. When the next Congress convenes in 2009, there won't be a single House Republican from New England. The GOP is doing only a little better in the mid-Atlantic. There will be only three Republican congressmen in New York's 29-member delegation in the next Congress. Only a third of Pennsylvania's delegation will be Republican--about the same proportion as in New Jersey. There will be a single Republican in Maryland's eight-man delegation. The Rust Belt is hostile territory, too. So are the Mountain West and the Pacific Coast. The GOP is like the central character in Bob Dylan's "Like a Rolling Stone." It's on its own, no direction home.
The Republicans are in demographic trouble. When you look at the ethnic composition of Obama's coalition, you see that it's kind of a mini-America. About two-thirds of Obama's supporters are white and a third minorities. The Republican coalition, by contrast, is white, male, and old. There's the first problem. Overall, Obama may have lost the white vote (while still doing better than Kerry did), but in 2008 whites (not counting Hispanics, per Census convention) made up the smallest proportion of the electorate since the start of exit polling. Obama scored tremendous victories among minorities. He won more than 90 percent of the black vote. He won the Hispanic vote by a two-to-one margin. He won the Asian vote by a similar margin.
Then there are the young. Voters under 30 turned out in only slightly higher numbers than they did in 2004, but they overwhelmingly backed Obama, 68 percent to 30. A successful Obama presidency could lock these voters into the Democratic column for a long, long time.
The most striking divide in 2008 is between rural voters and metropolitan voters. Rural voters back the Republican party overwhelmingly. The problem is that there aren't many of them--and there are fewer all the time. It's the metropolitan voters, the voters who live in cities or suburbs or exurbs, who are growing. And these voters are trending Democratic. Obama won the Philadelphia suburbs, the Washington, D.C., suburbs, the Chicago suburbs in Illinois and Indiana, the Denver suburbs, the suburban counties that make up the Research Triangle in North Carolina, and many more. He won the Orlando suburbs by 20 points. Disney World is Obama country.
Suburbs and exurbs are the most dynamic, fastest-growing places in the country. They are future-oriented. Republicans win when they build out from their rural base and gain support in the exurbs and suburbs. That's how Bush won in 2004. But in Bush's second term, things went awry. The suburban voters abandoned the GOP for the Democrats. The exurbs became volatile battlegrounds. And the GOP was left a minority party.
I think of places like Loudoun County, a northern Virginia exurb. Bush won Loudoun County by 12 points in 2004. In 2008, Obama won Loudoun by 6 points. For the GOP to have a future, it has to reverse that 18-point swing. Otherwise, Republicans better start praying for rain.
Yea, you’re right about the GOP. I’ve not seen a dumber bunch of malfeasants in my life. Admittedly, I’m not a octogenarian who can claim to have seen the Depression as a pup, but the GOP’s current bench seems filled with complete dolts, and the problem is that people like you and I would rather be dragged across a cheese grater and then into a puddle of salt water than run for Congress (or anything else, actually).
I don’t think the surge in new migration from Mexico is going to pan out. The vast majority of the money that attracted them in the post-Bush wave was tied to the housing industry in the south/southwest.
That industry is gone, done, fini. I expect to see a couple/three major homebuilders go BK here in the next year, and the change in population in places like Nevada is apparent just by driving around. The jobs for illegals on residential construction sites are gone.
Commercial real estate is next in the chute.
It is far better to be poor in the US than in Mexico and Latin America. And we are building such a large Hispanic population, that is can support a major underground economy. Today, there are no border states when it comes to immigration. Every state has become a border state. for example, in 1990, based on census figures, the Mexican-born population of North Carolina, was 8,751. In 2000, it was 179,236.
Take you "working class hero" sh-t to the Democratic party where it belongs. I should not have to pay for the INCOMPETENCE of the mental midgets of Detroit making stupid decisions.
Take your elitist hatred of working people and and shove it. The working class people pay the taxes, vote, support their communities and are indeed heroes. What is the Republican Party to become the party of Southern Regional Party of Snobs? Ronald Reagan, the greatest Republican ever understood the importance of working people and received their votes. This new Republican Party has lost support in most of the country.
Oh, the profits for your sonota did not stay in the US-they went across the ocean home. Thanks for not supporting your country...you schools or you community.
Dang, those maps I gave 'em worked.
As of 2007, Census figures show that there are 638,444 Hispanic/Latinos in North Carolina. In 1990, there were 76,726 Hispanics/Latinos. And yet people are surprised when NC goes for Obama.
I have lived a total of nine years in three Islamic countries [Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia] and travelled to many more. I don't need to go to Jihad Watch to get an education about it.
You should go to Jihad Watch but are a too arrogant know it all when it comes to this religious struggle of Islam against Jews, Islam against Christians, Islam against every other religion
Next thing I know you will be telling me this is really an Arab/Israeli struggle and not a Muslim vs. Jew struggle
Israel will survive long after you and I and our children and grand children. Israel has over 200 nuclear weapons and a first rate military. The only thing that will take them down is the 16% of their own population that are Arab Muslims.
That's your absurd talking point
You don't seriously think that 200 nuclear weapons are a valid defense when the Iranian can pull off a first strike on Tel Aviv via smuggled terrorist nuke
You will be happy with Obama's Mid East policy. All indications are that he will adopt the Saudi plan pushing Israel back to 1967 borders meaning also giving up the high ground of the Golan Heights
Your ignorance is only exceeded by your arrogance. I know firsthand about Islamic fundamentalism having been in Iran during the fall of the Shah and the rise of Khomeini. I left Iran on March 31, 1979. I was shot at for several hours and held hostage for about four more when our Embassy was overrun on Feb 14, 1979. Don't lecture me about Islam.
That's your absurd talking point You don't seriously think that 200 nuclear weapons are a valid defense when the Iranian can pull off a first strike on Tel Aviv via smuggled terrorist nuke
It is if the Iranians know that Israel will consider such an attack as coming from Iran and will retaliate.
You will be happy with Obama's Mid East policy. All indications are that he will adopt the Saudi plan pushing Israel back to 1967 borders meaning also giving up the high ground of the Golan Heights
Actually, there is a far more vigorous debate on such issues within Israel, including giving up the Golan Heights. Any such agreement will require Israel's approval and you can bet that they will do what is in their best interests. The idea that Israel is just a helpless pawn being pushed around by the US is just plain nonsense.
"Southern elitists?" Don't you have your stereotypes confused, Fonzie?
Again, there is a party for the working class socialists. It is called the Democrats.
You obviously never studied basic econ, nor do you realize that the flow of dollars/capital is not a zero sum game.
I like how people only think about whether Americans are being employed.
Where do the profits go when Hyundai, Toyota or Ford make an automobile on US soil?
GM is mostly owned by Americans and American institutions
Toyota by Japanese
Hyundai by Koreans
If you really knew Islam you would support Israel more instead of being neutral and blasé about the Muslim threat to it. Shot at? The whole world is in Islam’s gun sights. Take a look at Europe and the emerging Muslim majority
I am instantly on the side of anyone under attack by the worldwide Jihad. That includes Hindus, Kashmiris, Thais, Filipinos, Serbs, Israeli Jews and European nations being overwhelmed by Muslim birthrates and immigration. The USA is also under attack by the Jihadists You play a game of neutrality
You play games with the Jews (Israel)
Some probably got on your case in the Middle East.
Some Jews over there got your number and called you on it
Imagine the great Kabar being insulted or hassled by some damn Jew
Same reason the British are such pathetic advocates for Palestinians. It’s because the Jews of Israel drove them out
Check out my tag line sometime.
I never bet on Islam because I never bet on those stupid enough to follow false prophets
You bet on Islam from time to time
You must actually think that Muslims honor treaties. In the Koran they are told not to
Any treaty Israel signs with Muslims is null and void for the Muslims the day it is signed. Because Jihad is eternal until Islam rules the world. You will learn this at Jihad Watch
The low oil price means a stronger bargaining position for Israel. Muslim political power rises and falls along with the oil price. Obviously higher oil means greater stranglehold they have on Western Economies and the more Israel gets pressured to give land away to these idiots
Actually Europe has been pressuring Israel less the last few years ever since their internal Muslim populations have been rioting and acting traitorously and with high Muslim crime rates too. Islam is always a bad bet and never a good bargain......
BUT then you already knew that since you lived among the natives. Wogs according to the Brits yeah I know they included Hindus&others too
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***It is by its nature a reactive and dynamic movement, rather than an unchanging one.***
Although things are bleak now, I have no doubt we will come back. For example, the Tories in the UK were wiped out in the 1990’s. Now they are on a revival. So too shall conservativism rise from the grave. The question is what will the definition of conservatism 10 years from now?
I think in the next decade, the GOP will adopt a more European flavor of conservativism. This may allow Giuliani to run for the President in 2012 or 2016. He is expressing interest in the NY Governorship and has not ruled out another run for the White House.
“The market crashed in 29. It took a couple of years for the depression to begin.”
I hope we have learned a few things about how to stop a recession from becoming a depression. I fear Obama will pull and FDR and prolong he misery. The crash of 29 was a symptom, not a cause of the depression.
You are one sick puppy. This conversation is over.
You are arrogant and dull. I like arrogance when someone is correct and original. Your arrogance is lazy and dated. The Muslim world has changed in the last 30 years but what do you care? You are a broken record
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