Let's go to work: Senate Elections 2010: 50 State Strategy. Here we go!

Ok: So obviously we need to take a page from the DNC/LEFT/Kos handbook and look at 2010 as an opportunity.

Despite Senate gains in 2002 and 2004, we've been doing a horrible, HORRIBLE job in recruiting and running Senate races.

We need to look at 2010 as an opportunity. We need to target EVERY SINGLE Dem. no matter how "blue" a State they are in, and recruit great candidates for this election.

We can't simply rely on "red" states- there is a reason why Dems win in states like Montana, South Dakota etc.

This will be unpopular here, but we should run Chris Shays for this seat. He is a bit too moderate for my taste, but he has been a strong supporter of Ethics in government as well as the WOT. He can win this.

Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas
Huckabee. Dems always run there strongest candidates for Senate elections. We need to let Huckabee know that it's not ok for him to just sit this one out. He can win this.

McClintock and Whitman need to come to an understanding. One of them runs for Gov, the other the Senate. Boxer hasn't run a competitive race since 1998 and we need to take the challenge to her.

Harry Reid of Nevada Not sure who, but Reid is very, very unpopular in Nevada and this is our biggest target. Let's wipe out his smug smile.

Chuck Schumer of New York Peter King- he's from NYC, he's popular and can take Schumer down. Our second biggest target.

And there is of course potential seats in Mass (Kennedy's) and South Dakota that we should look out for.

Good cogent analysis.

We need to get our objectives focused...and that’s a pretty darn good look through the telescope. Here in the people’s republic of upstate NY, Mr. King isn’t known as well as he should be. I’d like to see (and maybe it’s a Shays-like choice) Mayor Giuliani run against Chucky Schumer. Giuliani has enough of a reputation and coattail that we might do something about the Executive Mansion and the Legislature (we need Republican legislatures, too), and I think he’d relish fighting that sniveling twit of a senior senator from NY—maybe Rudy’s 80% of what we need—but maybe that 80% is enough?

Just my .05 (inflation and Obama tax policy effect on .02)...

The Alaska Senate Vacancy Issue is Even More Interesting Than I Thought

In this post from yesterday (which contains a correction about the earlier New Jersey case), I wrote about the rules which would apply if Senator Stevens decided to resign before his current term ends. I cited to provisions of the Alaska Elections Code that I took from the Alaska legislature’s website.

It turns out, however, that voters passed an initiative in 2004 (in response to the then-governor appointing his daughter to a vacancy) which changed the method of filling vacancies. (The full text of the current Alaska statute is after the jump.)

But it gets better. Because this statute was passed by initiative, there’s a question whether it violates the 17th Amendment, which provides in Clause 2: “When vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the Senate, the executive authority of each State shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies: Provided That the legislature of any State may empower the executive thereof to make temporary appointments until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct.” The people, through the initiative process, get no role.

Calling Vik Amar.

Sec. 15.40.140. Condition and time of calling special election.

When a vacancy occurs in the office of United States senator or United States representative, the governor shall, by proclamation, call a special election to be held on a date not less than 60, nor more than 90, days after the date the vacancy occurs. However, if the vacancy occurs on a date that is less than 60 days before or is on or after the date of the primary election in the general election year during which a candidate to fill the office is regularly elected, the governor may not call a special election.

Sec. 15.40.145. Temporary appointment of United States senator. [See revisor’s note]..

When a vacancy occurs in the office of United States senator, the governor may, at least five days after the date of the vacancy but within 30 days after the date of the vacancy, appoint a qualified individual to fill the vacancy temporarily until the results of the special election called to fill the vacancy are certified. If a special election is not called for the reasons set out in AS 15.40.140 , the individual shall fill the vacancy temporarily until the results of the next general election are certified.
Posted by Rick Hasen at October 28, 2008 08:26 AM

It is amazing to watch the big tent being folded up in the middle of a circular firing squad. Centrists are going to be the ticket for EITHER party to make any gains. The discussion about, and for that matter, even the use of the term RINO is going to be self-defeating both intraparty, and in approaches to the general elections. What is a conservative anymore ? Is it the social conservative that focuses solely on anti-gay, anti-abortion, and creationism as pseudoscience ? Is it the deficit hawk (an issue that seems long abandoned to the Democratic Leadership Council) ? Is it the anti-tax Americans for Growth movement that managed to simply throw away 2 house seats in comfortable districts by moving the party rightward on an issue that plays too far against the grain of the vast majority of the American electorate ? If the party does not protect its centrist flank, nay even strengthen it, the conservative movement is going to be looking at a longer period of wandering the desert than Moses ! It will be a miracle to keep a further Senate loss of three seats, let alone make any gains in 2010, unless the party comes to the table to play ball in the next couple of years. Harnessing the party to the various litmus tests of its far right factions will only ensure an enduring party minority, legislatively, for a generation or more.

An interesting list but none of them are particularly vulnerable at this time. Compare that to the GOP seats we have to defend:

Brownback - term limited himself. Will probably be a race between Sebelius and Kobach.
Gregg - New Hampshire's trending bluer and bluer.
Specter - is there anyone in the GOP who likes Arlen any more? Obama carried the state with unexpected ease.
Voiniovich - depends on whether Obama's trouncing of McCain was an aberration or a trend.

Once again the GOP has more seats to protect - 19 as opposed to 15.

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