Posted on 11/03/2008 3:07:10 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
For those of you who have been following my prediction of a McCain-Palin landslide, here is my latest take. This article was posted yesterday on Real Clear Politics and resulted in over 25,000 hits on my website. It was cross posted on a half dozen more. I am going to copy in the tables from that article that have now been updated using today's averages shown in the no toss up map page at real clear politics. I have posted this article on real clear politics, but it has not come out on the front page because it just got the required 10 votes.
(Table at link)
What a difference 48 hours make. Now let's look at that same table on November 3rd and see what has changed.
(Table at link)
What leaps out at you is that Iowa has dropped off the table because the RCP average is fighting the trend and has gone from 11.6 to 15.3 points and is out of reach. On the other hand, Minnesota has gone from above 13 points down to 9.8 and now needs to be added to the table. Eight of the other states have dropped significantly in the RCP averages and two are unchanged. Now instead of McCain-Palin needing 493,636 PUMA votes to tie and 35,935 more to win, they only need 332,013 to tie and 34,276 more to win. I have changed the last two columns to reflect the changes in the RCP averages and the number of PUMA voters no longer required. I know a trend when I see one.
Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 507,231 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 873,520 PUMA's spread across eleven states are needed to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid?
North Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states? No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA's in New Mexico and because of its high Latino population. I think that Wisconsin is still too far out of reach unless a trend develops by tomorrow.
What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 80 electoral votes. That is because I am quite certain that McCain-Palin will carry the other nine states for a total of 309 electoral votes compared to 229 for Obama-Biden. In my first update today, I only added Minnesota to the group I thought McCain-Palin would carry. Looking at the trend in Colorado as opposed to the RCP average convinces me that it will go for McCain-Palin but only by a narrow margin. The same is true of Nevada. Here the Obama steam roller tactics in the Democratic Caucus produced enough PUMA voters to pull it off.
What will be interesting to see is how the pollsters and the media will react to this unbelievable upset. On the other hand, I think we all know what their reaction will be -- America is a racist country. No matter what they say, the real reasons will be (1) The DNC and the Obama folks dumped all over Hillary Clinton and then did not ask her to take the second slot, (2) America is simply not ready for a President who is so far out of the mainstream of political thought, (3) that Obama's constant playing of the race card cost him a lot of votes from people who did not like being called racists, (4) the media assuring the voters that Obama was a shoo-in because Americans are a stubborn lot and (5) Obama's attitude that his election was preordained.
UPDATE: Make that McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228. I have just been informed that I missed the fact that Sarah Palin took my advice and went to Bangor, Maine. Maine splits two of its electoral votes off and allocates them to the winner in each Congressional District. Congressional District 2 in Northern Maine will give McCain-Palin that one more vote for a margin of 81 electoral votes. I just got back from Maine and New Hampshire not to mention the fact that my branch of the Marston family is all from Machias, Maine.
RESPONSE TO READERS: Many of you have asked why the pollsters are not accounting for the PUMA Factor. Their models are built on the "normal" defection from a voter registering with one party and voting for the other one. Because the Democratic Party hosed Hillary big time, the are some very unhappy Democrats who will not vote for Obama. This is not normal and is an effect causing a mistake of 7 to 8 % in the polling by counting Democrats as voting for Obama when they are going to vote for McCain. I have lost count of how many websites are devoted to the PUMA phenomenon, but it is way over 100. Like Br'er Rabbit, they are lying low and are about to claw up Obama for what he did to Hillary. Of course, it helps that there is a female on the Republican ticket which gives these folks one more reason to forget about party unity even if they do not agree with her positions.
PS: I live in Prescott, Arizona and John McCain will be here tonight. Needless to say, I am going to the rally. I will tell him about how enthused you all are if I get the chance.
The AOL Straw poll was off by nearly +10% Bush in the last election.
I have felt all along, and still do, that if the Rats had run ANYONE else they would’ve won this year. However, they managed to find the most hard core Marxist available, and I just don’t see this country electing that, at least not yet, unless there are now more parasites than producers voting.
I am a lifelong Republican, born of lifelong Republicans. I've been voting for Republican presidents since Ronald Reagan. I also have a cat (a seal-point mitted ragdoll). I think you need to temper your dogma (*snicker*).
“Obama 306 McCain 232”
That belongs with the kitty litter.
Thanks PUMA’s.
Country First!
Yea!
My first impression is he is adding votes to a column that already has them added to it. There are not that many to throw off the stats and not all will be lying to pollsters.
We are like a drowning man and right now, anything that concludes a McCain win will be something to try and grab unto even if it is sinking.
Agree!
I just got off the phone with a good friend of many years. She has been a solid Democrat for years. She voted for McCain and she told me so have her Children, all 4 of them.
My Dad refused to vote for Obama and HE has always voted Democrat. My Daughter was going to vote Obama and she has changed her mind.
I am from Oregon a very BLUE State. That would be 6 extra votes for McCain.
I agree and I’ve said it before about what you’ve said here. The country will not put into the office of the Presidency, a card carrying Marxist. I don’t care what the polls say.
Me and ma’ boy will be out there voting tomorrow for M&P.
“I think you need to temper your dogma (*snicker*).”
That belongs with the cat litter too! :-)
I have been praying non stop. I am sure God hears my prayers. I will vote first thing in the morning, listen to Rush in the afternoon...then I will be here.
God bless you all!!!!
The article’s author, Paul N. Marston, makes this claim at his website:
“Your next question is why should anyone pay any attention to me about such a ridiculous prediction. The answer is that in 45 years in politics, I have never been wrong about an election call even when I was called crazy.”
http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=94&Itemid=118
Can anyone find another source to verify his perfect track record on election predictions? Thanks.
keep saying to ourselves..."if God is with us, who can be against us?"
I generally agree. I opinion is the if there is a state that whose candidates are running even now, the undecideds will break for McCain.
Lastly, the PUMA’s are going to be a factor in this election. They will act like a third party....but there votes will actually count towards McCain. What Hussein did earlier today flicking the bird at McCain will not only stir up bad memories of the PUMA’s but increase their numbers.
These idiotic polls are not factoring in PUMA effect. Similarly, they are not factoring the Obama/Bradely effect either.
I think it would be total poetic justice if McCain/Palin wins only because of the PUMA crossover votes.
It would put the left-wing nut cases back on their backs, spinning like “cluster-flies”, and it might bring the Democrat party back to realizing that left-wing wealth transfers do nothing but condemn the poor to being trapped in desperation, degradation, and destitution.
The poor deserve fishing poles, not fish. The Democrats need a swift kick in the arse, and maybe the PUMAS can do that, for we Republicans certainly haven’t been able to do much for them.
Time to toss the far left wing under the Bus. Go, PUMAS, save our republic, do your homework, and get rid of those in your party who do nothing but keep the poor helpless and downtrodden.
Did he know this about himself? =)
“In 1974, he decided to run for Secretary of State. He eventually lost the primary race by 7,700 votes statewide when he was outspent by his oppenent several times over.”
Can this guy be this brilliant??? If he bet his life on it and I can take it if he’s wrong then I will belive him 100% hahahahaha
I need a hug =(
I don’t know if puma’s are real or just psy ops.
I do KNOW Obama did not visit deep in FL, he just touched jacksonville. the NE tip.
In FL to say he was in FL.
IOW MSM spin fodder.
IF he needed FL or thought FL was still in play, he would have gone to central FL to tip the state, or to south FL to shore up the core.
No sizable minority group votes Republican. Those groups are much larger now than when this guy began his career. The impact could be tremendous.
Nonetheless, I will be out early to vote with my two daughters who are first time Presidential voters.
Three more for McCain - two from the under 25 crowd.
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