[Ravi]

Very interesting. One day polls on Sunday I believe.

[Friendofgeorge]

Would that not be the same for Gallup etc?

[Ikemeister]

FOXNEWS Radio just reported on these, and their spin was “Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie” in states where McCain was ahead or tied, and “McCain was trailing” where Obama showed a lead within the margin of error.

No bias there!

[counterpunch]

0BAMA TO CREATE DOMESTIC PARAMILITARY UNIT TO RIVAL MILITARY
 

[norton]

I'm not even ready to relax, in fact I'm not sure I could relax.
But - am I the only one who feels that the FOX Obamapoligists are starting to hedge their bets?

From the chubby lady who claimed that the 'bankrupt the coal industry' comments were a plea for free enterprise, to Beckel's reminder that only some states allow early voting (hence a 50/50 part split meant nothing)...there seems to be a communal step toward the back door.

Yes or no?

(PS: I got a kick out of a rare allusion to Obama having disabled the validation feature of his credit card donation site. But only a nasty, probably racist, republican would have picked up on it)

[SparkyBass]

If the polls aren't right, then there's only one solution...

[unspun]

McCain will get a big hidden bump from:

1. Union voters
2. PUMA’s
3. Undecides and changed minds

[topher]

Folks, I am toast. I have been fasting (bread and water mostly) for a couple of days.

Please pray for our Admin Moderators, as well as Jim Rob & wife, as well John.

They are really doing a great job. I really think Freepers are kicking the behinds all the country.

But I am definitely proud and biased about Freeper Land.

[La Enchiladita]

A poll on CBS this morning had McCain down by 10 points in VA. I thought we could win that one with all the military.

I don’t think we take CO, but who knows? Sarah will go there today....

[Norman Bates]

The McCain List.

Here are the final Rasmussen battlegrounds. McCain is slightly ahead or tied in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Missouri. And he is down 4% in Virginia and Colorado.

First, let's assume undecideds break strongly for McCain which, given Obama's overexposure, is a reasonable assumption. According to an analysis I worked out last night, these are the core states and McCain really has to win all of them: Ohio, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana. We have an excellent chance of winning them all, and this new Rasmussen data (along with Mason-Dixon) gives credence to this.

Next, McCain needs to win at least one of these two: Virginia and Pennsylvania. Rasmussen has us down 4% in both and Mason-Dixon has us down 3% in VA and 4% in PA. In M-D, Obama is polling under 50% which is a good sign. If McCain is able to grab undecideds and there is an element of the Bradley Effect at play, McCain has an excellent chance with taking at least one of these two states. If McCain takes both he wins the Presidency right there. If he takes one he moves on to the final round.

Depending on whether McCain takes Virginia or Pennsylvania, he then needs to take 1-3 of this last tier of states: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. If McCain takes only Pennsylvania (but not Virginia), any one of those 5 states will put him over the top. If McCain captures only Virginia (but not Pennsylvania), he needs to capture 2-3 of this third tier of states - any combination that will get him 10 or more EVs will capture McCain the Presidency. In other words, Colorado and any other state (IA, NV, NM, NH), or Iowa and any other state, or Nevada and New Mexico combined.

Obviously, grabbing PA would allow McCain the option of trading off one of the core states (OH, FL, MO, NC, IN). But I just don't see McCain winning PA without the core states.

This is my best and most reasonable analysis that I can offer. I think our chances for victory tomorrow are very good - much better than the pundits are giving us! Keep up your spirits and VOTE!!

LET'S WIN THIS!!

[Kevmo]

bmflr