Seriously, you don’t think Obama will outperform Kerry in this election? KERRY?
No offense, but that does not seem plausible. Obama is not a sure candidate, he has many flaws, but poll after poll (including those from Republican polling firms) are showing a higher level of base support and also more support from Independents than Kerry got. If you add the inherent difficulties we are having in this particular year, and, going back to 2004, the general reluctance amongst many to send an incumbent president home, especially in the midst of a major war, I just can’t see how Obama does not outperform Kerry and how McCain outperforms a president Bush who at the time enjoyed higher popularity with the American people than Kerry.
Obama might outperform Kerry, especially in big blue noncompetitive states like New York and California with large minority populations. Then again, he might not. He may not perform as well as Kerry did in many states.
Obama is certainly more charismatic than Kerry, but Kerry was far more qualified and experienced. Kerry would have been a stronger candidate than Obama, even if he would have generated less excitement. Hillary would have been an even stronger candidate than either Obama or Kerry.
Really? Poll after poll I've seen shows independents fairly evenly split. 0bama gains his edge due to the poll being weighted with Democrats. That's certainly the case with Rasmussen. I know, because I am a member and get to see the crosstabs.