[Chet 99]

No offense, but that does not seem plausible. Obama is not a sure candidate, he has many flaws, but poll after poll (including those from Republican polling firms) are showing a higher level of base support and also more support from Independents than Kerry got.

Really? Poll after poll I've seen shows independents fairly evenly split. 0bama gains his edge due to the poll being weighted with Democrats. That's certainly the case with Rasmussen. I know, because I am a member and get to see the crosstabs.

[floridagopvoter]

Obama seems to have gained an edge amongst Independents.

Gallup shows a 4% Obama edge:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108049/Candidate-Support-Political-Party-Ideology.aspx

Zogby:

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN3134134020081102

“He said the polling data over the weekend showed that both candidates appeared to be consolidating support among their core supporters — women and independents for Obama, older voters and conservatives for McCain.”

Pew:

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/468.pdf

WSJ poll:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122567494708692025.html

ABC/WaPo:

http://abcnews.go.com/politics/PollTracker/fullpage?id=5611512

I am not sure about Rasmussen, as I am not a member of their premium service.

I think it is pretty clear that Obama wins with Independents at this point, as shown by poll after poll.