With a more realistic party distribution, we would see a 52 to 53 McCain lead with Obama where he really is - at 46 or 47 in the polls conducted so far. Gallup wants us to believe though this election will see a turnout unlike any seen before in American history that will power Obama to a landslide win. One of the problems with the picture is Obama is underperforming compared to Kerry in Blue States. While blacks may be a strong Democratic group, that 97-1 voting ratio is found only in dictatorships. A 90-10 distribution would be a better fit. I guess they've doubled their bets because they think Obama excites blacks and Democrats in general to an extent no other Democratic candidate has ever done. But even in their model, the majority of whites still reject him. When you engage in politically correct polling based on untested assumptions, the actual results are likely to confound the assumptions because the assumptions have no basis in reality. In short, if Gallup is doing the polling differently than what is accepted practice because Obama is a black candidate, they're both doing him and the voters a major disservice.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I fully agree with everything you said. To which I add that I think that Gallup is allowing early voting numbers to skew their model. They are assuming that because blacks are voting in disproportionately large numbers in early voting, they will continue to vote in those same disproportionately large numbers on Election Day. This is simply wrong. What really happens is that blacks who vote early don’t vote on election day. They still make up only 11-12 of national voters, regardless of the day on which they vote. Well, except perhaps in Chicago....but I digress.
There is no basis for Gallup to assume that because more blacks are voting early, the total population of black voters will increase as well. Yet that is what its latest LV model does.