I fully agree with everything you said. To which I add that I think that Gallup is allowing early voting numbers to skew their model. They are assuming that because blacks are voting in disproportionately large numbers in early voting, they will continue to vote in those same disproportionately large numbers on Election Day. This is simply wrong. What really happens is that blacks who vote early don’t vote on election day. They still make up only 11-12 of national voters, regardless of the day on which they vote. Well, except perhaps in Chicago....but I digress.
There is no basis for Gallup to assume that because more blacks are voting early, the total population of black voters will increase as well. Yet that is what its latest LV model does.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus