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In LV, they have D 39, R 29, I 31 split. So, it’s D +10, and McCain running behind the Party ID gap.

We're both wrong. It's D39, I31, R29.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111703/Final-Presidential-Estimate-Obama-55-McCain-44.aspx

"In the final poll, 38% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats, 34% as independents and 26% as Republicans. Among likely voters, the figures are 39%, 31% and 29%, respectively."

So, assume McCain is +14 in white vote (twice the Gallup margin, and btw R2000 poll by Kos shows him +14 there) and -60 in non-white vote (not -70). Then he loses by 5% or so.

Closer to three points. But even under this scenario, you need to keep in mind that much of this non-white vote is concentrated in big blue non-competitive states such as New York and California. Additional big chunks of blacks and Hispanics are in Texas (which McCain will win), Illinois (where Obama will win), New Jersey (where Obama will win), and various Southern states where McCain will win or should win even if not by as big a margin as Bush four years ago. And the Hispanics in Florida are Cuban and far more GOP-friendly than Hispanics in other states.

And even more importantly, with a more realistic party distribution, McCain's share of the white vote will be closer to 16 or 17 percent, with each additional point of white voter support added to his total or subtracted from Obama's total adding approximately 0.77% to the top line numbers.

With a more realistic party distribution, we would see a 52 to 53 McCain lead with Obama where he really is - at 46 or 47 in the polls conducted so far. Gallup wants us to believe though this election will see a turnout unlike any seen before in American history that will power Obama to a landslide win. One of the problems with the picture is Obama is underperforming compared to Kerry in Blue States. While blacks may be a strong Democratic group, that 97-1 voting ratio is found only in dictatorships. A 90-10 distribution would be a better fit. I guess they've doubled their bets because they think Obama excites blacks and Democrats in general to an extent no other Democratic candidate has ever done. But even in their model, the majority of whites still reject him. When you engage in politically correct polling based on untested assumptions, the actual results are likely to confound the assumptions because the assumptions have no basis in reality. In short, if Gallup is doing the polling differently than what is accepted practice because Obama is a black candidate, they're both doing him and the voters a major disservice.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus