Posted on 11/02/2008 8:03:25 PM PST by ubaldus
Obama +11 with undecideds allocated. Without allocation: RV O 53 - M 40, LV O 53 - M 42 (in both models).
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
They want you and all other McCain/Palin supporters to just stay home and not vote. Prove them wrong. Vote!
Then explain how Pew, which uses Cell phones, has it at six?
They are certainly trying to get all the news in the morning to scream “OBAMA LEADS BY ELEVEN.”
Look, I am sick to death of thinking Obama will be a President of this great nation. But I just can not believe that every poll, every pundit including conservatives, every news broadcast and every newspaper is wrong. Ok, so let’s say out of the 65,000 who attended the rally, 60,000 came only to see Springsteen and got Obama as a “bonus.” Do ya think maybe a percentage of them will be swayed to vote Obama because of Springsteen, which is why he was there to entertain in the first place? The open early voting facility, The Vets Memorial in downtown Columbus, was inundated with voters who waited in line for up to six hours to vote. Not that I am profiling or anything like that but I would say in watching the local news that 80% of them were not of the white race. Do ya think they came to vote for McCain? This is only one city out of thousands in the country that have had the same results. I am praying I am wrong and believe me, I would love to eat some crow and will let you feed it to me all day long. But we better be prepared for President OOOOOOOOBAMMMMMMMMMMAAAAAAA.
Obama up by 11%? Impossible. That’s approaching Reagan over Carter margin of victory levels, and that was a 400+ EV landslide for the Gipper. There are not enough states that are even battlegrounds this year to give Obama that kind of win, and even the cooked polls don’t give him enough of a lead in any of them to account for an 11% national PV victory.
This poll is junk, like the others, and will be shown to be such when we wake up on 5 Nov.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Gallup finally mentioned their party affiliation numbers in the article associated with their final poll. Here are those numbers:
Democrat - 39%
Independent - 31%
Republican - 29%
Here are the numbers from exit polling in the 2004 election:
Democrat - 37%
Republican - 37%
Independent - 26%
Here are the numbers from exit polling in the 2006 election:
Democrat - 38%
Republican - 36%
Independent - 26%
Do they really believe that the gap has gone from 0 in 2004 to +2 for the Democrats in 2006 to +10 for the Democrats in 2008?
-Bob
Gallup had also previously reported no real difference in preferences of cell phone only users.
Cell phone only people tend to be younger. Younger people tend to support 0bama. This is all reflected in the demographics portion of the poll. If 18-34ers who use cell phones only supported 0bama at a greater clip than their landline counterparts, you’d be on to something. but they don’t (if you believe Gallup, which you seem to).
They took this poll 31st, 1st, 2nd..friday and whole weekend..they do not weight by party thus only 29 percent republican...and 39% democrat..please..more like 38 or 39 democrat and 34-36 republican...
Get it together mate, you're cracking up.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I have noticed a problem with Gallup before. They take a trend to its extreme. Once they see a trend they give the guy a 5 day booster of increases. They’ve done it to McCain a time or two and Obama several times. These last 4 days are a perfect example. Does anyone honestly believe Obama was gaining every single day? I don’t.
I don’t know whom to believe this election. Perhaps Mason-Dixon is correct and Obama has only only low-single digit lead (which makes the main battlegrounds competitive).
Or perpaps Gallup is correct, and cell phone effects are real and significant.
We will see the results in 48 hours, and some pollsters will have their reputation tainted, if not ruined.
They already have there boilerplate alibi when they are wrong. Those damn racist white undecideds just could not get past odumbo being black. You will see
OMG... Gallup oversampled Dems by TEN PERCENT in this poll?
Are you kidding?
Why!
Don’t get down. Cleveland’s a hell hole. It’s a dirty, rust-belt city (much like Buffalo) and those people probably voted for Kerry, too. I know that here in WNY, it’s as Dem as they come. No way McCain will win NY. But I’m going out to vote for him anyway. Cleveland is not representative of the rest of Ohio.
I think most people attend Hussein’s functions because it’s like a bloomin’ freak show. Listen to the Hitler protege’s rousing speech in person. There’s a fascination there, for whatever reason. I don’t think it necessarily means all in attendance will vote for him. It may be a curiosity thing. He is ALL OVER the news 24/7, after all.
Ole George Gallup is spinning in his grave.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
See post 87
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