What is the Bradley Effect? {Truth: the new Intimidation Factor = "Bradley-squared"}

St. Louis Post-Dispatch ^ | November 2, 2008 | Eric Mink

[JustTheTruth]

So now, in the waning days of the campaign, here is the alleged storyline: Those polls that show Barack Obama leading in the race against John McCain for president? Even widening his lead? Those polls are warped.

According to some, among the millions of Americans who are telling pollsters that they could vote for Mr. Obama, there are (thousands of? millions of?) closeted racists who will not vote -- who never would vote -- for a black candidate under any circumstances. Their votes could tip the election to Mr. McCain.

In politically obsessed circles, this supposed phenomenon is known as the Bradley Effect: Going into the election for California governor in 1982, polls gave Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley a lead of anywhere from nine to 22 points over his Republican opponent, state Attorney General George Deukmejian. After the votes were cast and counted on Nov. 2, Mr. Bradley had lost by 1.2 percentage points.

Mr. Bradley, who died in 1998 and was regarded as an honourable public servant and builder of bridges among cultures, was African-American. The discrepancy between how well Mr. Bradley seemed to be doing before Election Day and how things actually turned out generally has been attributed to racism: When protected by the secret ballot, voters with hidden or repressed racist attitudes vote for the white guys -- no matter what they might tell pollsters.

The problem with trying to apply the Bradley Effect to Mr. Obama's candidacy is that it's not 1982. It is, rather, 2008, and the United States has changed.

[PapaBear3625]

It is a certain segment (mostly Democrats and independents) REFUSING to participate. Their place in the poll is then filled by 0bama supporters

And up to 75% of called people refuse to participate in the poll, so this would REALLY skew the results.

[theophilusscribe]

workerbee, I am pinging you to counterpunch’s analysis. I think counterpunch does a great job explaining why the polls are not trustworthy.

[ThanhPhero]

Under President Obama Unions would become dominant within 4 years, dominant in large industry and in local plumbing companies and restaurants. It is part of “spreading the wealth” away from designated middle class folks to designated poletarians.

[HamiltonJay]

I know this because I’m not sitting on a sound set in DC, or in a phone bank in Deleware. PA is not going to go McCain, and the reasons PA is not going to go McCain is the same reason that the nation will not go McCain. The problems here are the same problems elsewhere.

Fauxbama has a statistical max at 47-48%, on his best day, with the wind at his back, that’s as high as he can possibly get. And Tuesday will not be his best day.

Pollsters have already admitted the “refuse to take poll” numbers are higher than they’ve ever had, this self exclusion affects polling in a big way, because pollsters cannot rely on their numbers if they are having significant people self censoring, they have no idea what that group represents.

PUMA’s are organized have been actively lying to pollsters throughout the election.

Unions have been intimidating members telling them to vote Fauxbama or else... You get some thug telling you this on the phone, a thug who knows your name, your address, your job, etc etc... You think you are going to tell the truth to any pollster from that point forward? Knowing full well it could be the union checking up on you?

The POLLS are off, way way off. They are oversampling dems, overstating democratic turnout, not taking into account all sorts of on the ground events, etc etc etc.

McCain is winning this thing folks, I don’t care what some twit on a sound stage with a bowtie and a passionate love of baseball says. If you think the pundents and MSM have a remote idea of the reality of this race, you need help. LOOK AT THE UNDECIDED... its 2 days to the election, do you really think there are that many truly undecideds?

The polls are horribly off this year, they aren’t remotely believable.

[Rosie405]

In our household my husband and I have both gotten to where here in the past couple of weeks we are refusing to talk to ANYONE who calls us about this thing. This is b/c you often cannot tell whether the caller is a bona fida pollster or some “faux” polling group sponsored by the Democrats.

And we are like a lot of the people this article talks about: we’re not necessarily wimps when it comes to talking about politics but these Obama people have been SO in-your-face for SO long, and they have SO much money to man these phone banks and so on, that it is downright unnerving, and yes, a bit scary. Americans are just not used to this sort of constant onslaught. This writer is correct: this is why so many people are refusing to talk to pollsters this year, and why these polls are so unreliable.

[kcvl]

closeted racists

No, it's actually NONE OF YOUR DAMN BUSINESS who I vote for, Eric Mink!

Dec 7, 2005 ... ERIC MINK: U.S. credibility goes up in smoke.

Eric Mink is a columnist and editorial director at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and he`s known around town as Minko the Pinko for his leftist views.

"Mink: People’s opinions obviously differ. I’d be comfortable with Biden becoming president. And I’d be as uncomfortable with Palin becoming president as I’d be with University City’s Joe Adams, a decent man and mayor of my hometown, becoming president. By any reasonable comparative assessment, Biden is qualified for the job, and Palin isn’t."

"I’ve seen the American health care system left to the mercy of those same market forces and watched costs rise, health decline and millions forced into bankruptcy. I’m mystified that anyone can keep a straight face when he claims that the marketplace can solve these problems when what we need is the political will to create a new, uniquely American system that will spare people from needless suffering and anguish when they are most vulnerable."

"I see my country’s fundamental values of justice, fairness and individual rights debased in a fight against punks and thugs who exploited simple security flaws we knew about but hadn’t bothered to fix. I see a war waged because weak, frightened people needed to feel and appear strong a war that, no matter how it concludes, will leave our country more vulnerable than it was before and our American values pointlessly and shamefully compromised. I wonder if there is such a thing any more as accountability."

"I’m offended by scam artists who prey on the real fears of real people and pretend that getting more oil to market, even in 10 years, will do anything but prolong our sick and destructive dependence on petroleum products, further erode the American economy and hurt working people more than anybody else."

[kcvl]

Eric Mink, former television critic for the New York Daily News

Eric Mink believes that television should not show footage from the Sept. 11th. terrorists attacks upon the United States of America

Eric Mink will discuss how the media influences our decisions in the voting booth and which ads are effective and which ones are downright deceptive and dangerous.

[Scarchin]

I’ve posted this many times -

Everywhere I go with my McCain “gear” on, folks give a quiet, furtive thumbs up or a whispered “Go McCain!” MANY folks.

I think folks are afraid of the R word.

Also: http://davidjeffers.thevanguard.org/wp-content/uploads/qr103108-the-real-polls.mp3

[HamiltonJay]

That should read PA is GOING MCCAIN.. not not go McCain.

[SAJ]

''Oh, the buzzin' o' the bees,
''And the cigarette trees,
''And the soda-water fountain.
''With the chirpin' o' the birds,
''That's what I've heard
'' 'Bout the Big Rock-Candy Mountain.''

Right with you, mate.

;^)

[SAJ]

Geez, I stopped reading the Post-Disgrace decades ago and yet YOU have to post his bloody picture?

(Well, OK, I suppose -- some number of FReepers haven't seen his stereotypically lefty-looking mug...)

BUT DON'T DO IT AGAIN!

;^)