Take a break from Zogby's Special Sauce and laugh at The Adventures of Baracchio Episode 1 and Episode 2. Or go look at your baseball cards...
Posted on 11/01/2008 10:05:21 PM PDT by tatown
Today: Obama-49.5%, McCain-43.8%, Undecided-6.7%
Yesterday: Obama-49.1%, McCain-44.1%, Undecided-6.8%
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I believe these are numbers from Friday night and Saturday.
Republican voters do not poll well on Friday nights and Saturdays in the fall (especially with Halloween thrown in, too), because they’re at high school football games, kids Saturday soccer, etc.
Last minute polls (Sunday & Monday) will be more accurate, both because it’s in the best interest of the polling company to show accuracy in their final figures and because their samples will be more legit because more people are at home on Sundays than earlier in the weekend.
National poll numbers mean nothing. Nothing. All that matters at this point is state-by-state support.
Gallup came out today with 52-42. I knew Zogby was going to follow his lead.
I am so ready for tuesday I can barely contain myself. I just know the silent majority is going to roar.
I am sick. You’re right, who the hell knows what he’s doing with the sauce. Snorting it? Drinking it? Putting it in his eye? Whatever. Y’all need to know, he is NOT A PROFESSIONAL POLLSTER. In fact, DJ over at Wizbangblog.com gives one a real understanding of what passes for polling this year. He is spot on with his anaysis, bottom line: We have a chance, McCain can win. The polls are truly bogus. Go check out his blog. Seriously
Exactly, and most states seem to be within the MOE, with alot of voters still undecided (mostly white voters). That bodes well for McCain.
NASCAR fans? I didn’t realize that this was a key voter demographic.
Zogby’s remark proves he isn’t to be taken seriously.
I really feel bad for all the people on this forum who are so obsessed with the polls. It is a case study of how some people psychology can be totally enslaved and controlled by the media and their polls. Very sad indeed.
The reality is that every responsible, reliable poll shows a sufficient Obama win. It will only be by the grace of god if he doesn’t win with 300+ electoral votes.
Depends on the sample size for each day, the +/- is a lot larger for a one-day sub-sample in a 4-day poll. The margin of error is probably close to 5 points for a given day's sub-sample (for each candidate). Because of that larger margin of error, the 1-point McCain and the 10-point Obama leads on consecutive days aren't necessarily that much different. And, as others have noted, issues of who is at home on Fridays and Saturdays matter too.
I'm not going to pretend to be optimistic, I'm not (I've not given up either, I just can't buy that every single poll is rigged). It ain't over, largely because it will depend on how undecideds break for McCain.
This isn't like Dole in '96 where at this point we were just hoping that the people would wake up (knowing deep down they probably wouldn't). But it's also an uphill battle. Let's hope and pray our side makes it to the top.
Yeah right. look at the many many category breakdowns, Zog must be spending a half hour each with these targets. Who has that kind of time? Not mormal people, not business people, not family people.
Also unlike Dole in 1996, we don’t have a “Perot” in the race to siphon off 5-8% of the GOP vote.
Additionally, unlike 1996, this is a red state-blue state country now. These national polls just aren’t very important anymore. It all comes down to the state by state battlegrounds.
The path is there for McCain to score an electoral college win but easily lose the popular vote by 4-5 million.
Edited to add that Gallup/MSNBC/CNNSI/Zogby, etc. etc. could all be correct on their national polling with Obama winning say 51-47 over McCain in the popular vote. But again McCain could win squeakers in just enough states to reach 270 EV’s.
What difference does it make . 300 or 350 or 270. A win is a win.
I call BS on all of Zobgy's polls. He claims that after McCain's 49-47 day yesterday (or whatever it was), Obama won today 52-42. Got that? He is saying that in the space of a single day, approximately 8.4 million people who supported McCain yesterday are no longer supporting him today. On the same day, another 6 million Americans who weren't supporting Obama yesterday are supporting him today. And an additional 2.4 million people who supported McCain or Obama yesterday are now undecided today.
Or maybe the decidedly GOP-friendly group of people who took their kids trick or treating last night while Zobgy was doing his poll don't plan to vote on Tuesday.
The other day, Zogby claimed that McCain actually led among Jewish voters. If this claim alone doesn't invalidate his methodology, nothing will. What's next? McCain pulls even with black voters in tomorrow's polling?
Who knows and who cares what a Zogby poll says. They're worthless.
Zogby is just terrorizing you guys...it’s in his blood.
A bare win of 272 or 290 might, just might, induce some humility. A tsunami of 350+ is a disaster that leaves him properly thinking he has a mandate.
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