Congratulations, President . . . McCain

self | 11/1/08 | LS

[LS]

I was dead on in 2000, and in 2004. My margin of Bush's victory took a hit in 2000 because of the late DUI. In 2002, I called every competitive senate race correctly except John Thune, who lost by 500 late Indian votes.

In 2004, I called every competitive senate race except one, and I correctly called Wayne Allard's win in CO despite polls showing him trailing by 5.

In 2006 I was wrong on all the senate races. I had no inside polling, and was told if the Rs turned out, DeWine would win and Blackwell would make it close in OH. Well, the Rs in OH turned out and we found from down ballot voting that they didn't vote for DeWine or Blackwell. GUNS hurt DeWine a lot. There was an NRA-type mailer that went out at the last minute and turned a 1-point race into a loss. Blackwell was hammered by both Taft and the "Bradley Effect." Final polls had him at -6 to -10 . . . he lost by 25!

[LS]

If I’m wrong, me being full of macaca will be the least of my, or your, worries.

[LS]

If I’m wrong, none of us may have a job unless we want to take the tatoo on our forehead.

[LibLieSlayer]

Half of winning is believing... and I BELIEVE we will win! I have been involved in competitions where your very life is on the line... those that win ALWAYS believe that they will win. Losers know they will lose before they step up to the plate... Like I said... I believe!!!

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

Which gallup? They have three... RV, LV and extended LV. They vary greatly in their numbers. They can cook your eggs any way that you want them served.

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

luntz has been outed by a woman on the Schnitt Show... she was paid $100.00 to be part of a Florida luntz group and she said he cooked questions... prodded for the right answers and had obamatrons actively working in his “neutral” group. She quit and Schnitt is investigating. luntz is a fraud as are his focus groups... 100% confirmed.

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

It is like the black man that abc followed into his new orleans 9th ward home... first thing was his 2 year old Ford F150 in a tree, followed by his 65 inch Panasonic Plasma TV on the floor in his flooded out home... and he was one of the poor blacks that were destitute before Katrina. Yes, I recorded it!

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

I know someone a gallup and the DO NOT KNOW who hangs up... they do not stay on the line once the call is identified.

LLS

[TNCMAXQ]

Glad you record in the last 2 pres. races was correct. Gives me confidence. But it is hard with all the doom and gloom. I wonder how many potential McCain voters are only following the “news” media and might not vote because they think it is a waste of time.

Dewine was behind only by 1 in ‘06? He ended up losing 44-56. You mean the NRA mailing hurt him? So pro gun people ended up going for Brown despite his overall far left record? Pretty sad.

[LibLieSlayer]

Not true in Mississippi... and I have seen the real data.

LLS

[LS]

Yeah, DeWine was close---might have been 2, but within striking distance, then the gun mailer went out.

All through the campaign (and I was working Blackwell, not DeWine) I kept hearing about guns, which was odd because DeWine had this great ACU record and guns had not seemed to be an issue. But he had a rep as anti-gun here and the mailer finished him.

[LibLieSlayer]

Being wrong in politics is no crime... going into an election or any competition with a losing attitude is being a loser. You are a winner... we all are... and McCain will be on November 4th! People that whine and give us the “woe unto us” crap are less than worthless... they hurt the effort and suppress the vote. osama is paying people to do this and we have people doing it for him for free. On to VICTORY against evil!

LLS

[TNCMAXQ]

Btw, what do you make of the poll reported by AP (?) yesterday showing 0bama ahead 59-40 among early voters? I hope that one is wrong too or we are in big trouble. It said a similar poll 4 years ago showed Bush winning 60-40. I absolutely do not recall any such news. All we heard last time was that early voting was supposed to favor the Dems. Maybe our friend Chet99 can dig up that poll from ‘04, if it actually exists. Hard to believe the race would be considered that close if Bush went into election day with a big lead.

[WalterSkinner]

..my EV map--for now...

[LS]

It all depends where the "early voters" are coming from.

Here in Dayton, we have an early walk-in vote advantage for the Dems (recognizing that ALL DEMS WILL NOT VOTE OBAMA) of . . .

sit down

12,000 (D) to 1,000 (R) to something like 6,000 (I).

Now, there are 58,000 more absentee/early votes out there, the large portion of them Rs.

I asked our chairman if these numbers bothered him and he said, "Not really. We have precincts here that literally are 400 to 2. I know. I walk them. All this means is that the blacks voted early---and they won't be voting on election day." In other words, you're going to see a dynamic we've never seen before in most states where the numbers still coming in are going to be from overwhelmingly R areas! It will be the reverse of MI, where you have all the R areas come in and everyone waits to be swamped by Wayne county.

[LS]

Cool map. Even without PA, that’s a win. And I’d sacrifice a month’s pay to watch the MSNBC heads explode if they have to put that map up.

[Gil4]

I wonder how many other people fool with pollsters this way?

According to Ann Coulter, it's about 16%.

[GOPsterinMA]

Good point!

[randita]

Re: western VA. I recall reading somewhere that it’s hopeless (words to that effect) for Obama.

Although I live in PA, I am pretty familiar with western VA as we camp there often. It is a primarily rural, NASCAR rules, church on every corner, family oriented, hunting/fishing centered, friendly down to earth folks type of place. With the exception of Blacksburg (VA Tech) and Roanoke city, these people would see through Obama in the blink of an eye. They would love Palin.

There’s no doubt they’ll go big for McCain, but will it offset NoVA-hope so.

[LS]

Can you help me find a thread sometime in the last 24 hours about early voting in FL showing a big McCain lead, but it mentioned Lee County. I can’t find what their voting patterns are, and my searches aren’t working.