Posted on 11/01/2008 2:01:17 PM PDT by Kukai
NEW YORK (AFP) — Never mind the financial crisis: with just days before the American presidential election, investors on Wall Street are betting big on a win for Democrat Barack Obama.
But they wouldn't be unfavorable to an upset by Republican John McCain.
"Given Obama's advance in the poll, it's pretty clear who's going to be president," said Owen Fitzpatrick of Deutsche Bank.
If the markets decline between August and late October (which is the case in 2008), power almost inevitably passes from one party to the other, he said.
Of the six times this situation has arisen since 1928, only one time has the rule been bucked: the 1956 reelection of Republican Dwight Eisenhower.
But Blicksilver doesn't expect the markets to respond well to a Democratic victory.
"If Obama wins with a significant margin, I could promise you that Wednesday will be a very hard down day," he said.
With an Obama victory, investors "know that capital gains taxes are going up, and they'll say 'I don't want pay a third more in tax,'" he added.
According to analysis from the Brookings Institute, Obama's economic plan includes increasing the maximum rate of the capital gains tax from the current 15 percent to 20 percent.
"If McCain wins I promise you the market will go up 10 percent on the opening and stay up all day," predicts Blicksilver.
(Excerpt) Read more at afp.google.com ...
My mom works as an office manager for a builder. She found out that she will be laid off in the next two weeks because of the economy. They’re shutting in down in anticipation of what an Obama administration will do to their business.
I wonder how many small businesses will shut down if Obama wins?
We need to pray this weekend.
I call complete BS.
Wall Street is hedging. There is a HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE difference.
/I guess you have to understand Capitalism.
Is there any question how this financial meltdown happened? Look at these people. What poll? There's one poll, "the poll," and it conclusively established BO is the next president. There's no other polls (pluaral). Where was this a**clown in 2004? Did he not take a class in statistics? Has he never learned about sampling errors and other shortcomings of polls? My God, someone please save this nation.
I believe a lot of people will be receiving pink slips between 11-05-09 and 01-20-09.
Make sure you vote on Tuesday, too. Voting is always helpful.
Vote for McCain and make some money (and keep more of it too)!!;)
Are you familiar with the concept of an “angel of despair”? That’s all this article is.
I hate it when that happens. I wonder if this is the first time people in this country ever voted themselves out of a job.
Wow. I can’t even articulate how much the headline of this story is WRONG. If McCain doesn’t win - watch for a mind boggling sell off. I’ve been investing on the faith of a McCain win. If it doesn’t happen, I’m cashing in at the loss and going home.
HE will make it illegal not to have a job. Millions will be sent to the gulags for reeducation.
Vote. Vote McCain/Palin AGAINST Obama.
Amen. There have been lots of threads over the last couple of months suggesting that Wall Street would rather see a McCain win....don’t know where this guy is coming from....
Why is this BS? It makes perfect sense!
If Zero wins, the Market will crash BIG TIME.
The markets are set to rally, which means McCain will win.
The DOW bottomed on 10-10 and bounced off the Sept ‘01 low and has spent the last three weeks oscillating.
Here’s the key, the DOW rallied, but, stalled out and went sideways for three days, 10-17, 10-20 and 10-21, reaching a high of 9284 on 10-21. That was major resistance.
It dropped off from there and bottomed at 8143 on 10-27.
It rallied for the rest of the week and, here’s the key, it was able to close over the 10-21 high of 9284 on Friday with a close of 9325.
Hence, resistance was broken, the DOW is free to move up this week which indicates a McCain victory.
JMO
If Zero wins, the Market will crash BIG TIME.
_______________
Yes, it will , but not immediately as a result of the election. The clear possibility of an Obama victory has been largely factored into the current market prices.
We’ll have to wait for further statements and actions of Obama to discourage traders more and bring down the market further.
To: DocT111
If Zero wins, the Market will crash BIG TIME.
***************
I am for McCain but I think the markets will just be relieved that the uncertainty of the election is over with and they will go up a tiny bit then will move into a holding pattern until he actually starts screwing everything up.
I think the congressional balance may be just as important to the financial markets.
Yeah, but then Barack can say this is what he inherited, not what he caused, and that his policies of higher taxes, forced unionization and over regulation didn't cause unemployment; it was that way when he got there.
I think the markets are reflecting the fear that BHO will be the next President. The market looks forward.
I think when McCain wins, the markets will rebound significantly.
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