Obama Leads By Four in Pennsylvania - Ras poll. 51-47 Obama. Obama only getting 75% of Dems!

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/1/2008 | Scott Rasmussen

[vwatto]

Election 2008: Pennsylvania Presidential Election Obama Leads By Four in Pennsylvania

Saturday, November 01, 2008

In Pennsylvania, John McCain is getting closer, but Barack Obama is still attracting a majority of voters.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state shows Obama with 51% of the vote while McCain picks up 47%. That four-point advantage for Obama is down from a seven-point margin earlier in the week and a 13-point advantage for Obama earlier in the month.

Just 75% of Pennsylvania Democrats now support their party’s nominee, down from 86% in the previous survey. Obama is doing a bit better among unaffiliated voters while Republican support for McCain remains steady (see crosstabs).

[Raycpa]

You keep asking this same stupid question and people keep answering you. It doesn’t matter if a bunch of dems are going to vote for McCain, the oversampling is what makes the polls come out for Bozo.

I think you missed the point. The polls may be correct regarding nationwide turnout yet wrong about battleground states. I understand that some minds are too math challenged to see the difference but I suspect some folks with high school math background will follow my logic.

[goldstategop]

Wow... its looks very good. If Obama gets just 75% Dem support in PA, he's finished there. And finished nationwide. He needs at least 90%.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Brett66]

I read on article yesterday that stated that pollsters are getting an 80% hang-up rate.

Only 20% are staying on the line to answer their questions.
The article went on to state that the hang-up rate was 20% in 2004, this is a huge difference this time around.

I think those 80% are pretty suspicious and angry at pollsters, I wonder who the 80% will vote for?

This election and the polling is very different from any election in modern times.

I doubt if Obama is going to see any positive surprises on election night.

[kabar]

We have been calling Rep and Ind voters as part of our GOTV effort. Some people are hesitant to reveal who they are voting for, i.e., McCain, because they are afraid of some sort of retribution. They will reveal the information only after they are assured we are really from the McCain campaign and they don't want anyone outside the campaign to know who they are voting for.

The same holds true for bumper stickers. This year in NoVA I have seen far fewer bumper stickers from either Party than was the case in 2004. People seem very nervous about anyone learning whom they are voting for.

[justiceseeker93]

Are you sure this is registered voters?

Well, I'm not sure, but he never uses the term "likely voters" in his discussion, so I'd assume he's talking about registered voters.

It's getting increasingly difficult to take Rasmussen seriously...

I believe he has been off in the past in presidential elections, and this year is most difficult for any telephone pollster because you have a "Tom Bradley effect."

[bray]

OB had a big lead against Hilary in PA in the primaries and got smoked. Repubs always lose the polls and win the elections.

Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops

[bray]

How is the temp at the Obama HQ?? Obvious Plant.

Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops

[Bobalu]

Glad to see you active here Common Tator...I heard you were feeling poorly. You are one of the wisest voices here on FR and we miss you when you are absent.

[fortheDeclaration]

This Rasmussen poll is a mess. He has AA voters shifing from 92-8 Obama to 80-20 Obama in a week. Does ANYone here REALLY think McCain is going to get TWENTY PERCENT of the PA AA vote? This is why the “Democratic” support for Obama tanked in the poll. And it makes me VERY unsure about the “closing” in the past few days.

Obama Democratic support 'tanked' because of the Hillary voters and Reagan Democrats who aren't going to vote for him.

Even a conservative estimate of Obama's loss of Democratic vote support puts it at about 20%.

No one is going to win the Presidency losing 20% of his base.

[Kevmo]

bmflr