I predicted a similar Pennsylvania number last night:
Strategic Vision Pennsylvania Poll: 049%, McCain 44%
Friday, October 31, 2008 3:24:26 AM · 5 of 17
2ndDivisionVet to Chet 99
I’d bet the real numbers are more like McCain 58%, Obama 36% with the rest undecided. Everyone I talk to in Pennsylvania assures me that McCain will win BIG.
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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2120497/posts
While I sincerely hope you are right, the fact is unless you're in Philly or Pittsburgh, then that doesn't mean much. I'm sure people in those big cities are hearing that Obama's going to win PA.
Most everybody in this country talks politics only with like-minded individuals, then when real results come out, the losing side screams "cheating".
Democrats don't win Pennsylvania, they win Philadelphia and the rest of the state comes along as a bonus. In 2004, Kerry won Pennsylvania by 150,000 votes. But his margin of victory in Philly was 410,000 votes. It won't be any different this time. Obama needs a narrow win around Erie and Pittsburgh and the Philadelphia collar counties, and the usual results in Philly and he's in. Results from the southeast and central won't matter.
Pauline...is that you, back from the dead on Halloween?
(I know, I know, the story's apocryphal, and her quote misconstrued.)