Posted on 10/31/2008 4:52:28 AM PDT by The G Man
A regular caller to the Quinn and Rose radio program, "Carl from Ohio," who claims to be involved in the McCain campaign's internal polling operation (I know, I know ...), says that unless the Obama fraud is so widespread it will be a McCain landslide.
Here is what he says the GOP internal state by state polling is showing for last night:
NJ M - 48, O - 43, U-7
MI M - 44, O- 42, U - 10
CA O - 44, M - 43, Barr - 3, U - 9
PA M - 55, O - 33, U - 10
He says undecideds are breaking 4:1 for McCain.
In Pennsylvania, the Dem vote is O - 47, M - 37, U - 13
#1 issue for Dems voting for McCain is the that Obama is cheating and trying to buy the election
And Kerry won that State with 10%, so where is the 'overwhelming' support for Obama?
Every time I go into the pubbie call center the place is filled with phone callers and everyone is jazzed.
My poll watching spot this year is a black church in New Kensington in a very rough area.
I know they will be thrilled to see me.
I heard Carl from Ohio talk about the "internal" numbers and I'd like to believe them but I'm working like we are 3 points behind.
If Carl's numbers turn out to be correct, after I get home from the polls next Tuesday, me and my buddy Johnny {Walker Black [see I'm not a real racist]} will celebrate for hours.
If he is from Ohio and he has access to campaign internals, why wouldn’t he give us the internals from Ohio?
Guess you don’t frequent the Detroit area eh?
You don't know why Palin is going to Ind.
Why is Obama going to PA if he has it sown up.
In fact, why is he going anywhere, based on the polls, he has all the EV's he needs.
McCain and Palin have been spending an inodrinate amount of time in Iowa, especially Eastern Iowa the last few weeks for a state that is supposedly solid Obama... their internals must show a different story... 5 more days of hope!
I did hear some pundits this AM on the morning shows that were in the Obama camp nervous as the proverbial long tail cats in a room full of rocking chairs. Lamont Hill on Fox basically said Florida was a goner for Obama. All that money, all that time and you lose it anyway. Look Barry is heading back to Iowa..Iowa, a state his fellating CNNs and MSNBCs was a done deal, double digit lead. Mac has the ‘mo right now, peaking at the right time, he's moving Catholics, youth voters and other demographics in his column. 527’s will be hitting hard with the Reverend Wright stuff this weekend and ACORN malarky. I heard that during the NFL games McCain is 2-1 in ads over Obama. Obama is even bandying about another 30 minute commercial since the last one was a flop. Feeling good folks!
I’m all for morale boosters, but we need to stay [at least a little] grounded in reality.
I’m boosting my morale by not watching ANY TV news.
He basically said that the reason major polls are varying by as much as 10% is that pollsters simply do not have a accurate model to predict turnout in this election. The polls are based on their best guess of who will turn out and in what numbers, but early voting seems to be way off from what they are predicting.
For instance, the models were predicting huge turnout among the youth and black voters. While the black turnout seem to be about as projected, they youth vote doesn't appear significantly higher than it was in 2004 and does not seem to be as pro-Obama as they conventional wisdom suggest.
Also, the democrat Tsunami that the media and pollsters has been predicting has not been appearing in early voting. Although early voting IS up over 2004, it's up across the board, not just among democrats, with the democrat/republican/independent ratio staying about the same. Pollsters have factored in this "Tsunami" when doing their polling, which is why they typically over-poll democrats by a 10 point margin.
If the models are off as much as Morris was suggesting, this race COULD very well be a landslide fore McCain/
Did “Carl from Ohio” mention he saw a cow jump over the moon last night and land in Roswell, NM too? Seriously if those are real GOP internal numbers then the GOP needs a new pollster that isn’t on crack. I’d love to believe the numbers but I stop believing the tooth fairly existed when I was 7 or so.
.
That is not to say McCain won’t pull this out, but a landslide is improbable.
If McCain doesnt get VA and Indiana its all over
While I sincerely hope you are right, the fact is unless you're in Philly or Pittsburgh, then that doesn't mean much. I'm sure people in those big cities are hearing that Obama's going to win PA.
Most everybody in this country talks politics only with like-minded individuals, then when real results come out, the losing side screams "cheating".
PA M - 55, O - 33, U - 10
*******
Total BS.
M-C will be dang lucky to win PA by even a point.
I’m going with it. No further doubt in my mind.
For me, I know it isn’t a lie. Whether the others are lying or not I don’t know.
James Carville
I know lots and lots of folks in NY & NJ who are voting for Mac.
No, of course they are not. Most people will be SHOCKED and STUNNED at the margin.
Ain’t gonna happen. If McCain wins, it is going to be by the skin of his teeth. He ain’t gonna win in no Reagan landslide. I would love that in that it would show that Obama and the polls were all full of s**t.
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