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It’s not about hope. It’s about numbers.

Here’s what is going on.

1) Pollsters and the media focused very early on the big numbers appearing in the Dem primaries. It essentially frightened them into weighting almost everything.

2) As best I know there seems to be NO pollster just reporting the raw, random sample. Everyone is weighting by party ID this cycle. If someone knows of a pure random sample getting reported, speak up.

3) The supposed Democrat registration machine is, based on preliminary data, NOT producing what was intended. The early voting data from various places indicate clearly that there’s no enormous shift being seen in the votes cast as regards party ID.

4) All the pollsters DO HAVE the pure random samples available. They weight them after the fact. This is a bit bad. If the random samples differed hugely with the post weighting result, they would get scared and stop weighting.

5) The no response result of calls is at a historical high. This is bizarre. What is more bizarre is the large number of undecideds that remain, even given the no response total. Why do samples answer the phone and go through the survey in order to say undecided? Why not refuse to respond? Weird.

6) The early vote results being seen make it pretty clear at this point that the polls showing huge leads for Obama are way off. The bad news is . . . McCain seems to lead in none of the polls. He’ll need a few more undecideds to break his way to sway the IBD and other close polls and walk into Tuesday with a few showing a lead. And no sooner, actually. Unlikely voters remain unlikely if they think they have won.

I would like everyone's thoughts on something.

We have heard about the surge in Democrat registration and about how all these Republicans switch parties to vote in the primaries.

We have also heard about Operation Chaos, and how many of these Republicans were intending to vote McCain in the general all along, but wanted to vote Clinton in the primary to sabotage "The One"

I haven't heard much about the other way around. How many Republicans voted Obama in the primary, because they wanted to put the last nail in the coffin of the Clintons for good?

We have heard estimates of how many Clinton Primary voters will vote Obama in the General, but the real question now is:

"How many Obama Primary voters will NOT vote Obama in the General?"

" The politically savvy Governor of Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell, is clearly panicking. Rendell has publicly begged the Obama campaign to send their star back to the state for no less than THREE major events to "close the deal" on a state that should have been closed for the leftists month ago."

That statement seemed just a little TOO public to me. Could it have been disinformation aimed at Republicans?