Posted on 10/30/2008 5:56:09 PM PDT by tatown
Like many, I had figured that one of the reasons that Virginia was so competitive this year was because the demographics of the state were changing, and that the balance of population and power was tipping in favor of Northern Virginia, and that that was where the new voters were coming from...
But it turns out that in the counties where Kerry won more than 50 percent of the vote in 2004, 71,466 new voters have registered.
In counties where Kerry won between 40 percent and 50 percent of the vote, 104,805 new voters have registered.
And in counties where Kerry won less than 40 percent of the vote - Bush country - an eye-opening 109,243 new voters have registered.
Now... these newly-registered folks might very well be Democrats; plenty of Democrats live in deep red counties, and vice versa. And, as Brian Schaffner notes, "some counties that went for Bush in 2004 may very well go for Obama in 2008 and the Obama campaign may also be registering large numbers of new voters in heavily Republican counties." Maybe Bush's 2004 campaign was uniquely strong in the non-Northern parts of the state.
I was also surprised to learn that "in 2004, the DC suburbs in Northern Virginia accounted for 32.4 percent of all registered voters in the state; now, that same area accounts for 32.8 percent of the state's registered voters. There is no doubt that the growth in Northern Virginia is dramatic, but it takes time to substantially change the demographic and political balance in a state as large as Virginia. Thus, Northern Virginia accounts for just a slightly larger share of the state's electorate than it did four years ago."
10/30 04:51 PM
Interesting, I’m down here in Richmond. Admittedly, I live in the City and see about 50/50 split in McCain and Obama signs. I consider this pretty good since I am in the City proper.
Driving around the state, I am struck by how many McCain signs there are, especially in the western part of the state.
The fact that NOVA only accounts for .4 percent more voters than in 2004 is a shocker. The libs down here make it sound like NOVA is going to dominate the state. I don’t think that is the case.
That may not matter much.
There are stupid liberals everywhere, and they would likely be a minority of the voters in places where Kerry did poorly.
and those same areas will not report in 'til well after midnight, with 120% of the electorate showing up. The did it for Webb, the'll do it for Zero.
I just can’t believe Obama will beat McCain in VA. Webb, who campaigned as a conservative Dem and stressed his military background, barely beat Allen in 2006.
But one of the most liberal members of the Senate is going to carry the state over McCain?
I guess anything is possible in politics, but that just seems so unlikely to me.
Not sure how to take this...Are we supposed to believe that all of the new registrations are Democrats.
One of the interesting things about the Democratic primary was that everywhere that registration was huge was thought to be a net gain for Obama but the reality was that a lot of the new registrants were going for Hillary. Places with the most voting population(Primary votes on a state by state analysis) went for Hillary. The only thing that gave Obama the win were the huge margins he had in “Red States”. PA is a good example of course, registration was huge and the assumption was that it would benefit Obama but a lot of people wanted to vote for a woman. I suppose it’s just something else to think about
No breakdown on party makes the info pretty useless.
I agree with the idea that you are seeing 50/50 split in your heavy dem area. I live in the city of Cleveland, not one of the 21 member city council or the mayor or any of the county officials are Republican. However, I am seeing many more McCain signs than I ever saw of Bush. I even saw 3 McCain signs in Shaker Heights and Cleveland Heights the other day. These are not Republican areas. I am not sure what to make of it, but I remai n hopeful.
We need to GET OUT THE VOTE. Any conservative or Republican who doesn't vote or spoils a ballot in a swing state this year, may posterity forget that we were ever brethren. May his friends and neighbors hang their heads in shame that they allowed this to happen. May his dog look upon him disapprovingly. May his chains fall lightly upon him.
Best you all start conserving.
I think a lot of us Repubs here in VA are working hard to ensure a win. I got my daughter (20) AND my mom registered this year. Mom’s 75, and this will be her first time voting. Also made sure the wife is registered as well as everyone living in my neighborhood. We’re pissed off, and we’re voting!
So what does this mean? Good news or bad news?
I doubt Obama is going to attract the "traditionalist" vote since guys who'll vote against a fellow with Jewish lineage will probably not vote for a black man.
However, if the "traditionalists" stay home, we'd need to look at the Wilder campaign. He attracted Republican votes ~ in the Midwest if he'd been a politician and white he'd been considered terribly Conservative in fact.
I think an awful lot of Virginia Republicans thought of Wilder's opponent as a weak candidate ~ which he demonstrated he was when he ran as an Independent against Robb and Oliver North. The purpose was to defeat the much more Conservative North.
Darned shame Wilder's victory over this wuss was not sufficient to kick his RINO butt out of Virginia politics for good, but it wasn't. Few more Republican crossovers to Wilder, and I think North would have ended up in the Senate later on.
If those new registrants are Democrats, then McCain will have a tough time running up his vote totals to offset NVA, they would defuse the classically Republican Counties.
If they are split like 60-40 between D and R, then those votes will not be as defused, and of course, they still have to get out and vote.
It sounds like encouraging news to me. Virginia has no party id, but it seems like many of the new registrations are from traditional republican areas, which *may* mean a good chunk of these new registered voters are actually republican.
That is what I took away from it, but could be wrong.
I know this is anecdotal, but here goes anyway...
ACORN registered my son-in-law to vote. He registered, has his card and is ready to vote Republican. Both of my daughters registered this year and are voting Republican. Friends of my daughters are all ready and are voting Republican. These are all first time voters.
We are in Virginia.
October 6 SurveyUSA Central Virginia : 52% Obama, 44% McCain
October 13 Sarah Palin comes to Central Virginia...
October 20 SurveyUSA Central Virginia 48% McCain, 47% Obama
Nothing else happened and McCain rose from 44% to 48%, and Obama fell from 52% to 47% (MOE 7.5%). It's fallen back to a a 3 point Obama lead this week but a 9 point change from one appearance!
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=6f3aad1f-2746-468b-b00a-9a23602977c8&x=80890,4
My mind is mush. Is this good or bad news? :)
The news is ‘intended’ to be good in this article (I think).
You saw Mccain signs in Shaker Heights and Cleveland Heights?
HERE I COME ELIZBETH THIS IS THE BIG ONE!! (holds hand on heart and almost faints)
Im out in Lake County, (Mentor area) about 3-1 in Mccain signs Mccain will take Lake County and when that happens 98% of the time he who takes Lake takes Ohio.
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