[jerry639]

Last I looked, we led in CO by 1,000 early votes (ie., more GOP than Dems). Now, I'm basing everything on a turnout model that says that a higher % of Dems will vote for McCain than Republicans will vote for Obama. Split the indies down the middle---but all signs are they are breaking for McCain.

I am leery of any reports that early voting is going one way or the other. As I understand, in Indiana the early votes and absentees are tallied on election day and not before. Can anyone direct me to any state sites where it states that early voting or absentee votes are counted before election day? I am not questing anyone's statements but would like some proof that some states count votes before election day.

[word_warrior_bob]

The huge undecided vote this year is the Political Correctness effect, they’re McCain voters. You’ll see on election day that many who when polled said Obama really meant “McCain”.

[LS]

When I say "leading votes," I mean ballots from registered Republicans vs. ballots from registered Dems. So the actual number of R ballots picked up and turned in is 1,000 greater in CO than the number of Dem ballots. Now, in theory, ALL Republicans can vote for Obama, but the traditional numbers are that about 89-90% of Republicans vote R, and so far about 87% of Dems (in polls) said they'd vote D.

That means that not only do the Republicans have an advantage in actual ballots turned in by R voters, but they almost certainly win the differential in R and D ballots.

This is before we even get to the Bradley Effect.

The point is that the Obama campaign was putting so much credibility in the notion that it would turn out oodles of "new" voters who would vote early out of sheer delight. Ain't happenin.