McCain’s Keys to the Keystone State

Pajamasmedia.com ^ | 10/29/08 | Ari Kaufman

[rollingthunder2006]

April 22, 2008, was supposed to be a bloody battle across the vast Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. It wasn’t. Despite seven weeks of polls reporting that the state was a dead heat, Hillary Clinton blew away Barack Obama by over 200,000 votes.

Not only were Pennsylvanians enraged at being called “bitter” by a candidate speaking in America’s wealthiest city, but many Hillary fans thought sexism was rampant, as is believed currently. I journeyed along the southwestern part of the Keystone State on a brilliant fall weekend to discover more.

Based on my travels this election season, I feel confident in saying that, aside from the “white guiltists” and the liberal intelligentsia, most Americans over 30, of all political stripes and religious affiliations, are morally conservative. While they may differ on abortion or gay marriage, the vast majority seek to enforce tighter borders, keep their families safe, get honest news, lower their taxes, and rid themselves of programs and policies that they feel are antithetical to how we became the world’s superpower. This is true in Indiana where I live, in my native California, and it sure as heck is true in 99% of Pennsylvania.

In 2008, most Pennsylvanians are not concerned with whether “America is ready for a black president,” but rather, whether the next leader will be honest with them and keep our nation prosperous. Others are miffed by their own congressmen deeming them redneck bigots. Some also may wonder why Obama’s two books are hagiographies of himself and his father, instead of his “typical white” grandparents, who, after his mother left him to pursue her studies in Asia, raised him, and worked hard to put him through the most exclusive prep school in Hawaii...

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/mccains-keys-to-the-keystone-state/

[mainepatsfan]

Heck Obama was supposed to run away with NH during the primaries as well.

[happygrl]

Some also may wonder why Obama’s two books are hagiographies of himself and his father, instead of his “typical white” grandparents, who, after his mother left him to pursue her studies in Asia, raised him, and worked hard to put him through the most exclusive prep school in Hawaii...

0bama is obsessed with his origins, nature over nurture.

Not very grateful for the people who provided that nurture.

[rollingthunder2006]

You know, I’m cautiously hopeful at the moment...wish i could get that LA Times video, lol

[johncocktoasten]

And coincidentally, he is going to lose both in the General Election as well.

I think the Clintons want Obama’s fall to be precipitous and his loss to be shocking, so as to clear the playing field for the next election. Essentially, a steep fall and a big loss electorally will eliminate Obama next time around. Whereas if the race was tight the entire time, a close loss would leave the door open.

Once Obama loses, in about two or three months, I would expect him to be ensnared in some major scandal either related to Rezko or to the fraudulent campaign donations he has received.

[mainepatsfan]

I live right on the PA border and in the leadup to that primary I swear Obama had an ad during every commercial break on the PA radio stations I was listening to. He just crushed Hillary in terms of the number of ads...and yet he got smashed by the voters of that state.

[mainepatsfan]

They need Obama to lose without them appearing to have had anything to do with it.

[Frantzie]

I looked up vote percentages in the primaries:

PA
Hillary was 55 % to O 45% in PA
FL
Hillary was 50% to O 33% to 14% Edwards
NH
Hillary 39%, O 37% and Edwards 17%

Obama got slammed in FL.

[KoRn]

If McCain can turn PA, Hussein’s election map gets VERY small really fast.

[Ancesthntr]

While they may differ on abortion or gay marriage, the vast majority seek ... get honest news ...

On what planet?

[newfreep]

We’ll know early on the final results based on PA & VA. If McPalin can win both, the good guys will win and avoid the socialism bullet.

[somerville]

The Pennsylvania primaries never showed Obama ahead. It was always a huge uphill battle for him.

[Frantzie]

Obambi cross Bill Clinton and Bill is seething. Bill and Hill will get even after Obama loses. My guess is U.S. Attorney Fitzpatrick or whatever his name is might induct Obama after the election.

I hope Berg keeps pushing his lawsuit and finds Obama is an illegal alien.

[flattorney]

The McCain Pennsylvania “Flip” Problem
FlAttorney, SFARI co-chair

10.25.08: As the National polls, I concur with other GOP colleagues that the Pennsylvania polls should continue to tighten up to election day. However, there is nothing in the data to suggest McCain can win the Keystone State without divine intervention. McCain has not “won” a PA poll since Rasmussen’s April 24, 2008 - McCain +1. This election cycle, Democrats have registered 500,000+ new PA voters. A Republican Presidential candidate has not won PA since 1988. It’s been 20 years and twice Republican Governor Tom Ridge couldn’t deliver PA for the GOP Presidential ticket:

Pennsylvania: Win | Loss <>* Won Nat'l Presidential Election
2004 Kerry(D) 50.9% | G.W. Bush 48.4%*
2000 Gore(D) 50.6% | G.W. Bush 46.4%*
1996 W. Clinton(D) 49.2%* | Dole 40.0%
1992 W. Clinton(D) 45.1%* | H.W. Bush 36.1%
1988 H.W. Bush(R) 50.7%* | Michael Dukakis 48.4%
------------
Pennsylvania Governors:
Ed Rendell(D) January 21, 2003 - Current
Mark S. Schweiker(R) October 5, 2001 - January 21, 2003
Tom Ridge(R) January 17, 1995 - October 5, 2001
Robert P. Casey(D) January 20, 1987 - January 17, 1995
Dick Thornburgh(R) January 16, 1979 - January 20, 1987

Republicans can say what they want about Ed Rendell but, for a Democrat, he is a good politician that knows how to “shake the trees.” I sincerely hope John wins Pennsylvania, but as a GOP political “insider”, these are the facts as I see them. This stated, only a fool tries to outguess the National voting public.

10.27.08: Why John McCain Continues to Trail Barack Obama in Pennsylvania

10.28.08: Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a 86.0% chance of carrying Pennsylvania. If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes, he would have to run the table and win all eight of the competitive states that were held by President Bush in 2004, including Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Nevada. That's very, very tough for McCain to do.

10.28.08 Video: PA Governor Ed Rendell on "The Rachel Maddow Show"

10.29.08:

TAB

[DemforBush]

“I think the Clintons want Obama’s fall to be precipitous and his loss to be shocking, so as to clear the playing field for the next election. Essentially, a steep fall and a big loss electorally will eliminate Obama next time around. Whereas if the race was tight the entire time, a close loss would leave the door open.”

Yep, I think you hit the nail on the head. The more 0bama loses by, the stronger Hillary’s “you should have picked me” case becomes.

[majormaturity]

Very good analysis - but this time, some things are different. Rendell pleaded with the O’ campaign to saturate PA in the last 10 days - that means that Rendell knows something is wrong. Plus, Murtha is alienating voters big time. I think PA will tip to McCain. You are to be commended on your research.