for their ‘traditional’ (i.e., historically proven) turnout model: Posted on 10/28/2008 12:10:24 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Later tonight I will be doing the second “Nightly Bi-Poller Report” and it will be an interesting post because Gallup has come out today with a stunning poll for their ‘traditional’ (i.e., historically proven) turnout model:
Even Gallup’s fanciful ‘Extended’ turnout model took a huge dip.
(Excerpt) Read more at strata-sphere.com ...
Well, you’re right. Although they’ve already called it for obama if we’re being honest about things.
Plus if the Obama followers walk into the election with Obama well up, and he loses, then there WILL be riots.
“Go Nitally Lions!!”
When they're only 3-4% apart, then the race will be won by whichever side motivates more of its people to show up on Nov 4.
The polls are simply one more tool used by the MSM to form and sway public opinion and behavior.
When McCain wins PA you will know that the Silent Majority (don't have twenty bumper stickers to show how they care, don't bother to argue empirical facts with full-blown Democrat/Obama Moon Bats, less likely to partake in polls by biased sources that inflate Dem registration numbers, etc.) has returned.
By the way - welcome to Free Republic!
What the heck, since FR is in vanitytown anyway, here’s my analysis of Pennsylvania that I posted on another thread.....
Here’s the thing. When it’s a straight D vs. R fight, Pennsylvania is REAL close. And it’s a microcosm of the country. The rural parts of the state go solid R, urban Philly & Pittsburgh go very heavily D. And actually, the Ds have been doing better lately in places like the Philly burbs, so Dems have had an advantage.
Basically the fight in Pennsylvania revolves, for a Republican, solidifying the rural base and picking up some suburban voters. For the Dem, it’s solidifying the urban base and picking up suburban voters. The last two Presidential elections have followed this model.
HOWEVER, and this is what many of the national people don’t quite get about Northeastern urban politics, when the race has racial overtones as this one obviously does, that throws the numbers WAY off, sometimes wildly. Urban Democrats are of two kinds—you got blacks, and you got ethnic, usually Union, whites. And we’ve seen time and again with mayoral elections that when a candidate is perceived as the “black” candidate, he *does not get* a huge chunk of white Democratic voters.
Case in point, how do you think Rudy Guiliani wins a mayoral election as a Republican against Dinkins in NYC? If you want a PA example, there’s the 1999 mayoral race between Sam Katz (R) and John Street (D) in Philly. Here’s a quote from Wikipedia on this race:
“Katz, running as a liberal to moderate Republican, ran on a platform of cutting the high wage taxes in the city and bringing back businesses which had fled. Street ran citing his support of the Rendell administration’s policies which many had felt rescued the city from a financial crisis. With a 75% voter registration advantage for the Democratic Party, Katz faced an uphill battle.
The race turned out to be racially divisive with Street holding 94% support of the African-American majority wards and Katz boasting support from about 80% of the white-majority wards. [10] Although both of the city’s major daily newspapers, the Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News endorsed Katz’s candidacy, in the end, Street held on to a slight 7,200-vote majority on election day. [11]”
This is not Pennsylvania as a whole. This is JUST Philadelphia. So in a city with 75% Democrats, the Republican candidate only lost by 7200 votes. 80% of predominantly white wards went for the moderate Republican over the Democrat, even though, and I can’t confirm this but I suspect it’s the case—they were probably majority Democratic wards.
The implications for this election are enormous, if this same dynamic plays out.
Because what is suggests is that white ethnic Union Democrats may simply not vote for the candidate perceived as “the black candidate”. (And for those that don’t know, Street went into this election with some similiar black radical associations that Obama has—he was very much “the black candidate”).
If Obama cannot count on these white Democrats that Kerry got and Gore got, he is finished in Pennsylvania. He simply won’t have enough votes out of Philadelphia to counteract McCain’s advantage in the rural areas and the battleground suburbs.
Bottom line, yes places like Philadelphia usually go Democrat. But when race is a factor, even Philadelphia can’t be taken for granted as a Democratic stronghold. Hillary knew this. And this was the point she made over and over again-—Obama just can’t connect with traditional Democratic constituencies. This is what she meant.
If Obama can’t rely on Philadelphia, he can’t rely on Pittsburgh or Scranton which have (I think) higher proportions of these ethnic white Democrat voters than Philly. It’s impossible for him to win the state in that scenario.
What continues to amaze me is that there are all these people who were never registered to vote before. Yes, you have young, first timers, but it seems funny at the numbers turning up.
No, PA is all Eastern.
Is the Erhnest Borgnaine?
PA is all eastern time zone.
With the World Series delayed yet again, one has to wonder how annoyed the Philly fans will be to wait for their team to win because of this infomercial.
This poll does not mean a damn thing.
I said the other day that these polls by design will be tight to get McCain supporters all fired up and then come the weekend these fraudulent pollsters will show BO pulling away setting you up for an emotional crash to keep you home and hopeless..
Quit being a slave to these damn polls and get out and spread the word to ignore these polls good or bad.
The...VOTE!!!!!
It's not one of those that do.
Thanks. I could have googled but I figured you would have the fact at hand.
Upward Sprial!!
McCain Uptick = Dow Up
Dow Up = McCain Uptick
Buy now! Do it for McCain!! Do it for your Country!
Jmerzio since 2008-09-18
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.