Posted on 10/28/2008 9:44:32 AM PDT by Bushite
These were conducted Oct. 23,24,25
Bucks County: O: 49 M: 43 2004 Results: K: 51 B: 48
Allegheny: O: 52 M: 42 2004 Results: K: 57 B: 42
Erie: O: 50 M: 43 2004 Results: K: 54 B: 45
York: M: 57 O: 39 2004 Results: B: 63 K: 35
Montgomery: O: 51 M: 39 2004 Results: K: 55 B: 44
You underestimate the level of resentment felt by many Hillary supporters towards Dear Leader. With us, it's more of a conservative disdain for a guy who sometimes, but not always, disagrees with us on issues. After all, while few here like McCain's past stances and votes on CFR, illegal immigration, etc., he is at the same time pretty socially conservative, and is good on foreign affairs and defence issues, and seems to be finally getting it on taxes and economics, to a certain degree. As such, few conservatives feel an out and out hatred for McCain, and those that do are often the loony-tune, pseudo-conservative Chuck Baldwin types.
PUMAs, on the other hand, GREATLY dislike Dear Leader because they have a (justified) sense that he stole the nomination right out from under them, with the charges of vote fraud, suppression, and even physical intimidation reported in the Dem caucuses.
Plus, the PUMAs want Hillary to have one more shot (and this is regardless of what she herself has said publically), and 2012 is the only shot she has left. Better to face a semi-conservative McCain or a neophyte Palin, they figure, than to have an incumbent Dem president who will be unassailable within the party primary process.
That sounds plausible. It wouldn't be enough for me to abandon my core beliefs, but the other side is crazy, so maybe.
If obama were up, he would be living in FL and OH.
Here are the under-reported reasons I have collected visiting FR way too much.
1) If you have not considered that Democratic Presidential campaigns would try to browbeat you into thinking that a Democrat win was inevitable, and that you should side with “history,” and vote with everyone, please read http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117212/posts
1.1) Oh yeah, the “Joe the Plumber” video isn’t the only time Obama has let fly with his “spread the wealth” worldview. He blabbed about it profusely in 2001 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2116921/posts
2) “Polls” that show Obama ahead tell a different story when internals are studied. Please see http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/an-eeyore-free-zone for a primer on how polls are cooked. UPDATE: Rasmussen saying McCain ahead in Florida and Ohio.
And now, a brief history lesson of ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS:
1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41%, (+9.75 Reagan) Reagan won 45 states.
1984: Regan 58.77%, Mondale 40.56% (+18.21 Regan) Reagan won 49 states.
1988: Bush 53.37%, Dukakis 45.65% (+7.72 Bush) Bush won 42 states.
1992: Clinton 43.01%, Bush 37.45%, Perot 18.91% (+5.66% Clinton) Clinton won 30 states.
1996: Clinton 49.23%, Dole 40.72%, Perot 8.40% (+8.49% Clinton) Clinton won 31 states.
2000: Bush 47.87%, Gore 48.38% (Gore +0.49%) Bush won 30 states.
2004: Bush 50.73%, Kerry 48.27% (Bush +2.46%) Bush won 31 states.
NO WAY is Obama up 14 points!
3) Hillary and Bill are not acting like they want Obama to win, since she wants to run again in 2012, despite what she alludes to. Notice Hillary has not gotten Berg to cut it out with his “birth certificate” lawsuit.
4) “Hussein” being Obama’s middle name is still news to most people.
5) A picture of Obama dressed as a Muslim (there are at least three) is still worth 1000 words (3000 in this case). Man your email station! Post bills!
6) The PUMAs who know the hows and whys of Hillary getting cheated, will vote Palin, and will pull others. Check out http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=33711&page=3 and http://democrats-against-obama.org. Freeper lonestar67 says, “Surveys have suggested that as many as 20-30% of Democrats may vote for McCain based on the rejection of Hillary. If even fractions of these claims are true, Obama would be hard pressed to win the election— especially in key states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio.”
7) “[Bitter Clingers] to [Religion and Guns]”, will vote McCain, so much so that 22K of the 45K in Grand Junction, Colorado came out to see her http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110920/posts.
8) The Palins ARE America and the conservative base. America and the conservative base will vote accordingly. According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2106836/posts parts of the country that were not fired up about the election, are working for Palin. She draws THOUSANDS at every campaign stop.
9) The NRA has “8 figures” of ads to unload in “swing” states
10) At one point, Obama was only 5 points up in New York! New York!
11) The Democrats were talking about Democratic consultants freaking out over Obama mis-managing his campaign before they settled into poll alteration.
12) The Enemedia is already spreading the meme that if Obama loses, it “is racism”. They see the tea leaves ...
13) The Media was calling the election for Kerry ELECTION MORNING in 2004, and Carter and Reagan polled evenly on election day! SOMEONE is trying to buffalo us with these polls! For more on the history of polls leaning Democrat, please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2106669/posts Both Zogby and Mike McCurry predicted a Kerry win.
14) McCain has only started to play the Ayers card. McCain has not yet played the Tony Rezko, Odinga, ... more at http://www.barackbook.com
15) Plenty of long-time Democratic voters are unimpressed with Obama, and will not vote for him. Two midwestern transplants have volunteered to me that they know lifelong Democrats who WILL NOT vote for Obama. The 1st hand accounts here on Free Republic about lack of enthusiasm for Obama relative to Kerry similarly bodes poorly for Obama.
16) Obama has only 75% of the Jewish vote last I checked, just like Kerry (comfortable R win). Gore got 90% (close R win). Please see http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_and_the_jewish_vote.php and http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08293/921167-470.stm
17) The Christian base that re-elected Bush in 2004, knows Sarah is more than a Sunday Christian, and is praying for her.
18) McCain opened 50 offices in California. It’s in play! It should be the bluest of the blue, and it is not.
19) Google “Bradley Effect”. Obama is getting poll votes he’ll never get on election day. PUMAs have also agreed to lie to pollsters about supporting Obama, and are encouraging others to do so.
20) Operation Chaos resulted in an overlarge quantity of Democrat registrations that will never ever vote Democratic.
21) Obama’s “spread the wealth” line to Joe the Plumber will cost him undecideds not ready to etch the current class structure in stone.
22) The Enemedia overstating Obama’s popularity will cut two ways. The lazy, and the youth, (core Democrat constituencies) will not brave traffic and lines to vote on election day, since they were lied to by the KGBMedia to believe that Obama has a gigantic lead. In fact, if I worked for the GOP, I’d make sure free beer/music parties were being held outside of every major blue city before/on election day. They’re called “raves”.
23) There is a group playing Jeremiah Wrights ads. Read more about it http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108462/posts, and to donate visit https://www.completecampaigns.com/FR/contribute.asp?campaignid=OCDBPac.
24) The Obama crew already knows they’re going to lose. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110803/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2103037/posts
25) Kerry won the Nickelodeon kids vote 57/43, and Obama won it 51/49! If you don’t think kids vote like their parents, then you got another thing coming! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110843/posts
26) Freeper lonestar67 says, “... the misogynist treatment of Palin by the media elite has provided additional elements to the coming silent backlash— especially among women.”
27) Three people over 50 (white male and two Mexican women), on two occasions, on October 25th, asked me if I know about Obama not being a citizen. My Dad knows, and he emailed all his friends also. Point being, EVERYBODY KNOWS that Obama ain’t benevolently and humbly forthcoming with his birth certificate, and thus something fishy is afoot in Camelot.
28) Polls are meant by the Enemedia, to SHAPE public opinion, not to accurately report it. Get your news here! Stop torturing yourself! We bring the liberal media lies here, and we dissect them through the lenses of Christianity and Conservatism.
Fellow Freepers, please feel free to post this list every time you see a Freeper or anyone feeling down, anywhere. No need to credit me or ping or write me.
Let me know if you have any other under-reported reasons for the coming McCain/Palin win.
Please tell me if you think there are mistakes.
Hey Obama supporters!! Taxes kill businesses kill jobs kill people
TX is split but IN is a closed primary, straight up, no caucus chaser. And Hillary didn't lose IN.
Cute post, and welcome to Free Republic.
Okay, folks!! Let’s keep Texan Tory sober!!!
:-)
Taxed? Try eliminated.
YES
This data is encouraging both historically and also based on the movement since the data was collected.
Unless Philly can produce a 105% turnout PA is heading McCain-Palin.
Did “Bushite” ever answer where the numbers are from? I’m not digging through the entire thread to see if it was ever answered.
You expect someone else to do the work for you?
Too bad.
Click on his name and look at his posts, and you’ll see where he answered the question on where he’s getting this information.
Don’t know where you got it, but it doesn’t look like good news at all. :(
Yes.
Meow.
If these are the numbers McCain has, what does your friend think of them? Or is he/she in a position to analyze?
My fear is that McCain is doing what Rudy did in Florida...wasted ALL his time in Florida, betting on winning that and using that to propel him...and he got his ass kicked there.
Thanks tart
Bingo. I do not fully grasp all the analysing and arguing back and forth on this thread...the numbers do NOT look good to me, but I'm not a statistician. But Hussein's behavior shows me HE thinks Pennsylvania is still in play.
1 There ideology icludes the “women always get hosed” philosophies. Many are:
a. voting for the woman
b. voting against the “hoser”
2. There is the theory that if Obama gets in Hillary is permanently finished for any White House runs. If McCain wins, they can put Hillary in in 2012.
3. Some actually don’t want the extent of Socialism that Obama is offering.
4. No clue.
They depressed her vote in IN. A woman who walked with Martin Luther King was at a polling place and watched what happened. If you were not voting for Obama, they told the elderly they could not vote. It is on the video’s of voter fraud against Hillary. She speaks very well to what she observed as she was very upset.
You are correct! She would have won Iowa with all the reports since the Iowa Caucus of voter fraud, intimidation and not recording all the votes for Hillary. Hillary definitely would have won Iowa and without the Obama ACORN voter fraud, she would have had the nomination.
The people running these organizations of PUMA, Clinton supporters for McCain and Democrats for McCain all come out of the Clinton camp. They will never get over the voter fraud of Obama and they are determined not to let it happen to McCain.
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