Marxist
Posted on 10/27/2008 11:09:38 AM PDT by Chet 99
The Bradley/Wilder Effect
By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
October 27, 2008 — It is probably the secret “Great White Hope” of some Republicans. And if by some miracle John McCain wins, it will undoubtedly become the Democrats’ accepted explanation for Barack Obama’s loss. It is the much-discussed “Bradley effect,” or in the South, the “Wilder effect.” It is the -- unproved -- assertion that some white voters tell pollsters they are either undecided or plan to vote for the black candidate, then vote for the white candidate. The supposition is that these voters fear they would exhibit, or reveal, racial prejudice if they told the pollster they were voting for the white candidate.
The theory is named for two elections. In 1989, Doug Wilder (D), an African American, won the governorship of Virginia by a narrow 50.2% to 49.8% over Marshall Coleman (R), his white opponent. Pre-election polls showed Wilder would win by a larger margin. A late October survey for the Washington Post gave Wilder 52%, Coleman 37%. In the Mason-Dixon poll taken about the same time as the Post’s survey, Wilder had 48%, Coleman 44%. Mason-Dixon’s Brad Coker points out, “If you give Wilder all the ‘undecided’ blacks and Coleman all the ‘undecided’ whites, it comes out at 50%-50%.” (In any case, Wilder got about 40% of the white vote; were Obama to replicate this, he would carry most of the South.)
(Excerpt) Read more at southernpoliticalreport.com ...
Fyi, Mason-Dixon has M down only 2 in VA, with both candidates well under 50%
Vote AGAINST racism. Vote FOR McCain/Palin.
Ping.
Here is a sample of Rasmussens polls in the Democrat Primary:
New Hampshire:
Ras: Obama +7.0
Final: Clinton +2.6
California:
Ras: Obama +1.0
Final: Clinton +9.6
Texas:
Ras: Obama +1.0
Final: Clinton +3.5
Is Rasmussen a terrible pollster this election with his unrealistic sample, or is this the Bradley and Wilder Effect? Or both?
Mason-Dixon is the gold standard for polling at the state level. I’m concerned that McPalin is down, but the slightest national tightening brings VA right into our column.
The ‘Bradley Effect’ overlooks a talented Republican opponent who ran a campaign that focused on issues and promised that he would be the first Armenian to be the Governor of California.
What about the ‘Assmussen Effect’?
This is the assertion that the polls are wildly oversampling Democrats.
What about the “Ford Effect?”
How did Harold Ford poll in TN in 2006 and what were the final results of that race?
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