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The Bradley/Wilder Effect (Mason-Dixon vs Washington Post polls of VA)
Southern Political Report ^

Posted on 10/27/2008 11:09:38 AM PDT by Chet 99

The Bradley/Wilder Effect

By Hastings Wyman

Southern Political Report

October 27, 2008 — It is probably the secret “Great White Hope” of some Republicans. And if by some miracle John McCain wins, it will undoubtedly become the Democrats’ accepted explanation for Barack Obama’s loss. It is the much-discussed “Bradley effect,” or in the South, the “Wilder effect.” It is the -- unproved -- assertion that some white voters tell pollsters they are either undecided or plan to vote for the black candidate, then vote for the white candidate. The supposition is that these voters fear they would exhibit, or reveal, racial prejudice if they told the pollster they were voting for the white candidate.

The theory is named for two elections. In 1989, Doug Wilder (D), an African American, won the governorship of Virginia by a narrow 50.2% to 49.8% over Marshall Coleman (R), his white opponent. Pre-election polls showed Wilder would win by a larger margin. A late October survey for the Washington Post gave Wilder 52%, Coleman 37%. In the Mason-Dixon poll taken about the same time as the Post’s survey, Wilder had 48%, Coleman 44%. Mason-Dixon’s Brad Coker points out, “If you give Wilder all the ‘undecided’ blacks and Coleman all the ‘undecided’ whites, it comes out at 50%-50%.” (In any case, Wilder got about 40% of the white vote; were Obama to replicate this, he would carry most of the South.)

(Excerpt) Read more at southernpoliticalreport.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; mccain; obama; va2008

1 posted on 10/27/2008 11:09:39 AM PDT by Chet 99
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To: All

Fyi, Mason-Dixon has M down only 2 in VA, with both candidates well under 50%


2 posted on 10/27/2008 11:10:41 AM PDT by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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To: Chet 99

Vote AGAINST racism. Vote FOR McCain/Palin.


3 posted on 10/27/2008 11:11:27 AM PDT by Need4Truth
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To: Perdogg; DesertRhino; Frantzie; GOP_Lady; HamiltonJay; impeachedrapist; IndependentWahoo; ...

Ping.


4 posted on 10/27/2008 11:15:52 AM PDT by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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To: Chet 99
I think Obama’s Bradley effect is about 5 percent. That's based on the primaries where he polled 5 percent better.
5 posted on 10/27/2008 11:16:44 AM PDT by teacherbarbie (I would go into politics, but I like to keep my youthful looks.)
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To: Chet 99; LS

Here is a sample of Rasmussens polls in the Democrat Primary:

New Hampshire:
Ras: Obama +7.0
Final: Clinton +2.6

California:
Ras: Obama +1.0
Final: Clinton +9.6

Texas:
Ras: Obama +1.0
Final: Clinton +3.5

Is Rasmussen a terrible pollster this election with his unrealistic sample, or is this the Bradley and Wilder Effect? Or both?


6 posted on 10/27/2008 11:16:54 AM PDT by 1035rep
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To: Chet 99
Youtube - OBAMA SAYS CONSTITUTION DEEP FLAW CONTINUES TODAY



Marxist


7 posted on 10/27/2008 11:17:42 AM PDT by Fred (The Democrat Party is the Nadir of Nihilism and OBAMA IS A MARXIST)
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To: Chet 99

Mason-Dixon is the gold standard for polling at the state level. I’m concerned that McPalin is down, but the slightest national tightening brings VA right into our column.


8 posted on 10/27/2008 11:22:24 AM PDT by RIRed
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To: Chet 99

The ‘Bradley Effect’ overlooks a talented Republican opponent who ran a campaign that focused on issues and promised that he would be the first Armenian to be the Governor of California.


9 posted on 10/27/2008 11:26:00 AM PDT by heywoodubuzzoff (McWhatshisname/Palin in 2008!!)
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To: Chet 99

What about the ‘Assmussen Effect’?

This is the assertion that the polls are wildly oversampling Democrats.


10 posted on 10/27/2008 11:27:04 AM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (You MUST see this website: http://www.neverfindout.org/)
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To: Chet 99

What about the “Ford Effect?”

How did Harold Ford poll in TN in 2006 and what were the final results of that race?


11 posted on 10/27/2008 11:48:50 AM PDT by trumandogz (The Democrats are driving us to Socialism at 100 MPH -The GOP is driving us to Socialism at 97.5 MPH)
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