I believe you’re right—the polls are fudged; I’m not sure by how much. But consider this: Intrade represents real money that people are betting. If they relied on polls that can be proven to have been doctored, and they lose, do they have a case of any kind against the pollsters?
Your map is more realistic but I would put Mi as a toss-up.
Mi is far closer than the polls are showing.
I like your map better!
Truthfully, I think the actual results will be very similar to the map you posted, Igntar.
I think that is about as optomistic as it gets. making MN a toss up state is nothing more than wishful thinking. I do believe we are ahead, but its very close. I could see a repeat of 2000.
Also, has anyone looked at the AOL straw poll lately? McCain is at 69% of the popular vote, whic has continually grown. I know this reflects a very small percent of the vote (those ho have computers, access, etc) but McCain leads in every single state, even California!!
What makes me excited about this, is that this poll is not controlled by someone calling in, its just peopel and who they say they are voting for, nothing more.
I say we win by 4 electorals, and there will be a surprise in a blue state turning red. Don’t be surprised if it’s PA either.
Where did you find that map? I got a 403 error when I tried to copy the link on it.