Posted on 10/23/2008 11:07:18 AM PDT by justlurking
McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
Rush also said he knows that Barry is in trouble if he has resorted to the “McCain will take away your Medicaid and Social Security” card.
Rush still thinks it’s over 3!
This poll is good news. I was dreading its release, but it had shown a trajectory towards McCain yesterday, so I was hoping it carry further. If the others, particularly Rasmussen and Gallup, go into the same direction now strongly we could have a meme just in time for the weekend.
Look at the 18-24 age group in this poll: 74% for McCain and 22% for Obama. Who says that Obama is getting the youth vote? The poll tries to explain away this number by indicating that wide fluctuations are possible because of the small sample size of this cohort, but Obama was ahead 66% to 26% on day 1, increased his lead on day 2 and has been ahead only once since day 3. In fact, most of the past 11 days, the two have been pretty close in this demographic, with McCain ahead most of the time and picking up points the last two days. Even though the sample size is small, I haven’t seen much fluctuation, and, in fact, it has remained pretty steady for McCain for the past 9 days. McCain has the youth vote.
Republicans, traditionally, have not polled well on weekends; perhaps it’s lifestyle, going away for the weekend, recreational activities-not a recent phenomenon; I heard Matthew Dowd, a former Republican advisor comment on this about a month ago; it’s just something that’s accepted; perhaps that’s why the Battleground tracking poll doesn’t poll on Friday or Saturday.
bttt
IBD knows market data and statistics cold. This is one reason why they were the most accurate in 2004. William O’Neil the owner and publisher is someone who actually values his reputation as well.
He is not going to make things up to help McCain. He does not need to anyway.
I plan on cancelling the (getting left by the day) WallStreet Journal for IBD’s paper.
One of the more interesting bits of trivia is from the 1972 election.
Nixon beat McGovern among the 30 year-old and under voters.
When McCain gives his victory speech, he should bring out copies of Rasmussen, Zogby and Gallup polls. Then he should read how those polls said the Liberal Messiah would easily win.
Dobson Interview 10/22
AP Story
I'm 22 and I have a McCain/Palin sticker on my car. Most of my friends can't stand me right now.
Look at my earlier posting. Even though the sample size is small, it has been fairly consistent over the last 9 days for McCain. I see a trend that points to a youth vote for McCain.
Maybe. TIPP allocated the remaining undecideds 2-1 in favor of Kerry in 2004. But, that was only the remaining 4% on the last day before the election.
Looking at the raw data, it appears in the last few days (before the very last day), the undecideds (around 8%) did break heavily for Bush.
BUMP!
I didn’t break down today’s numbers, but it appears that IBD is using a relatively sane breakdown of about R 35 / D 38 / I 27 in their party ID weighting, which is roughly the 2006 turnout.
As compared, of course, to other surveys giving the democrats as high as a 12-15 point edge.
I heard somwhere that the TIPP poll was the most accurate of all the main stream polls in 2004.
I expect a bigger undecided break for McCain.
LOL! We joke around the office about Biden and the “God love ya” stuff.
This is a real old time NE thing that my relatives years ago would say in NJ. I think it is a Catholic thing too. My late late grandmother who was Irish-Catholic used to say it all the time. She was wonderful but she could have a bad temper bless her heart.
I said to someone that Biden would be okay as a nitwit neighbor down the road or a colorful blowhard character at a local tavern as they are called in the NE. But you sure as h*ll do not want that halfwit in charge of anything.
If, however, they break for Obama, we will lose.
How many of the "undecideds" will simply not vote? Some of those mush heads will simply not be capable of choosing a candidate.
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