I don’t buy it. These polls are so skewered.
Virginia released today there were 400,000 new registered voters since 2004, pushing the registered totals to approximately 5M total. This puts VA online to break 70% turnout.
1,716,959 - Bush
1,454,742 - Kerry
Under the highly unscientific assumption that all the Bush voters vote McCain, all the Kerry votes vote Obama, McCain needs 35% of these new 400,000 voters to keep the lead.
But interestingly, VA showed both Kerry and Bush maxed out on the partisan voters. To make up 8% seems unlikely. McCain should win +2/3.
Even if Obama were to win this state, it will be <1.9 points. What I find unbelievable is Sarah Palin’s numbers in a traditional Republican state. Unless they polled exlusively in Fairfax and Richmond.