Virginia released today there were 400,000 new registered voters since 2004, pushing the registered totals to approximately 5M total. This puts VA online to break 70% turnout.
1,716,959 - Bush
1,454,742 - Kerry
Under the highly unscientific assumption that all the Bush voters vote McCain, all the Kerry votes vote Obama, McCain needs 35% of these new 400,000 voters to keep the lead.
But interestingly, VA showed both Kerry and Bush maxed out on the partisan voters. To make up 8% seems unlikely. McCain should win +2/3.
Even if Obama were to win this state, it will be <1.9 points. What I find unbelievable is Sarah Palin’s numbers in a traditional Republican state. Unless they polled exlusively in Fairfax and Richmond.
On average only 55% of these new voters will actually vote.
i don’t understand the second to last line of your post. please explain
One item of interest in the internals. 48.7% of respondents have 4-year college degree or more. I’m pretty sure that’s way too high. Could explain the Sarah Palin responses.