Obama out spent Hillary by 3 to 1 in Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, and South Dakota .. yet Hillary won those states even after she had lost the nomination... People still voted for her. I believe the constant plaing of Obama commercials turned people off.
In 2004 Kerry was running as many as 30 commericals a day on Ohio TV stations during the final 2 weeks. Bush ran next to none. It was not because Bush did not have the money, it was because too many commericals turn people off Big time.
There is a school of thought that believes that Kerry by running so many spots, ticked off enough voters to give Bush Ohio. No matter what station there was a Kerry spot in every commerical break. The spots were not bad, but seeing them over and over just made them an irritant.
There is a lot of evidence that too many commericals are counter productive. They no longer convince people to vote for a candidate but make voters wish they would never see or hear of the SOB again. The way to accomplish that is to vote for his opponent.