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Most people don’t know how to interpret a poll, and that includes virtually all reporters and pundits — even the conservative-friendly ones. Let’s face it. For most people, their eyes start to glaze over once you start talking about “internals,” “turnout,” “demographics,” and other such esoteric stuff. They are interested only in the top line.

I tear into every one of these polls because I want to find a single poll that actually shows Obama ahead by a statistically significant margin in a sample that actually reflects a representative sample of likely voters. I haven’t seen one yet. The only polls I’ve seen that favor Obama either do not publish their internals or are clearly oversampling Democrats based on actual exit poll data and realistic turnout models.

Meant to tell you we probably need a new secret code! :) Here is an email I received this afternoon about PA: Sent: 10/14/2008 5:05:31 P.M. Central Daylight Time Subj: About the Polls and "McCain, Best I've Seen Him" About the polls that are discouraging some people: Remember when Sen. Clinton was certain to lose to Obama in NH, where the "polls" showed him far ahead? She won NH. Remember, Pennsylvania, where the race was "tightening," and Wolf Blitzer pronounced it (shudder) "too close to call?" Sen. Clinton won PA by 9.2%. As a volunteer -- one of tens of thousands now in PA or coming soon -- I believe McCain will win this state on Nov. 4. The following message is from Eliza in PA who attended the tremendous McCain rally in Montgomery County: Hello- I want to tell you what I saw today. I'm Eliza Scherrer, wife of Jim Scherrer. I'm part of the Women's Coalition for McCain in PA. I was at the McCain event today in Montgomery County Community College in PA. I'll tell you something... I have never seen McCain so fired up and inspirational in my life. I was in an overflow room because the event was more than oversubscribed. At first I was annoyed at being in an overflow room because I brought my 3 week old newborn infant to see Senator McCain and it was advertised as a Women's Town Hall event and I thought as a women I'd be able to talk to him about child health care. Boy was I wrong. The place was sold out, packed. Standing room only (men and women). And, everyone in the "overflow room" was so fired up and cheering that I felt like I was right there watching him, but was watching it on a monitor. The crowd was on their feet, roaring and cheering and screaming. Hey, he's fired up now; he's gotten his stride.. We are on to victory and I couldn't have been more proud of Senator McCain as I was today. It was so loud I feared for the little eardrums in my arms. He spoke from his heart and he said he would fight for us all on the issues that mean the most to us all. The theme certainly was "fight", and fight he did. One of the campaign volunteers came over to me and said "can I put a McCain pin on your baby's dress" and I said, "it would make me the happiest woman alive if my little new daughter could watch this man be President of the United States"; and then I cried tears of joy! Because, now, more than ever, I know that he will win and that he will be the best leader we've ever had... I will treasure this day and this McCain campaign pin for life...

Yea its amazing, it takes a fauxbama backer leaking an internal poll for certain people to remotely believe what I’ve (and others actually on the ground here in PA) have been telling everyone for a while now.

Fauxbama will lose PA folks, he’s got trouble here, and across the rust belt. THe idea he’s up by 10 or 15 here is ludicrous! Kerry with a solid democratic support and the state machine firing completely for him, eeked out 2.5% of the vote or 140k votes here... Gore got it by about 3.5% or 205k votes. The very idea that Fauxbama has any chance of winning this state at all, let alone by 10+ points is ludicrous on its face.

Don’t believe the Horse Crap the national polls and MSM are feeding you.. Fauxbama’s on the defensive guys, not the offensive. He doesn’t have any chance of winning if he loses PA.. .NOne, he has to pick up 19 EC votes of Kerry, and Kerry held PA, if Fauxbama loses PA, he’s got to make up 40 EC votes more than Kerry, and they just aren’t here folks.

Fauxbama is not going to turn FL, OH, VA, MO or NC.. that’s not going to happen folks.

Fauxbama is done, and was done from the minute he was chosen to be the nominee. He’s going to lose, and he’s going to lose by more than a few points. He’s going to lose PA, and at least 1 if not 2 of the other rust belt states that went Kerry in 04 and Gore in 00.

Look guys, the only way Fauxbama wins is if the republican base in large numbers gets dejected and doesn’t show up to vote on election day... that’s it.. that’s the only calculus that gives him a victory. Stop with the doom and gloom folks, stop letting them sell you a false bill of good. Be excited, we are winning this thing, and winning it handily. We are winning folks, that’s the reality.

The national polling outfits are not picking up what’s going on on the ground at ALL... they are completely worthless. PA by 10 or 15? Please.. WI by 10? Be serious.. MI by 15?? Not a chance.

Stay focused and stay positive... the MSM’s been lying about us and to us for years.. why are you suddenly buying what they are selling? I can only assume its because you are falling for the “hearing it often enough” that you are believing it to be truth.. Its not folks! Not hardly!